Seoul: South Korean officials reported no unusual activity in North Korea on Tuesday following unconfirmed media reports that leader Kim Jong Un was in fragile health after surgery.
But the possibility of high-level instability raised troubling questions about the future of a nuclear-armed state that has been steadily building an arsenal meant to threaten the US mainland amid stalled talks between Kim and US President Donald Trump.
South Korea’s presidential office said Kim appeared to be handling state affairs as usual and that it had no information about rumours regarding his health. But many will be watching closely for any signs of trouble in North Korea, and whether it will address the reports something it has not yet done.
The United States and North Korea appeared to be barreling toward war in 2017, with the countries trading insults and threats of destruction. The next two years saw a surprising series of summits, including three between Kim and Trump, as Kim pursued diplomacy in hopes of ending crippling economic sanctions and obtaining security guarantees. But through it all, he maintained his right to a nuclear arsenal, and most diplomacy has stalemated since.
Speculation often surfaces about North Korea’s leadership based on attendance at important state events. Kim, who is in his mid-30s, missed the celebration of the birthday of his late grandfather and state founder Kim Il Sung on April 15, the country’s most important holiday.
But he presided over a meeting on April 11, discussing coronavirus prevention and electing his sister as an alternate member of the political bureau of the ruling Workers’ Party, according to the North's official Korean Central News Agency. And state media have since reported he sent greetings to Syrian President Bashar Assad and Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel as well as “birthday spreads” to two North Korean officials and a new centenarian.
Read more:US official says Kim Joung Un in grave danger after surgery
It’s unclear what would happen if Kim is sidelined by health problems or dies.
Cheong Seong-Chang, an analyst at the private Sejong Institute in South Korea, said political upheaval would be unlikely as Kim’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, is already exercising significant influence within the government, and most members of North Korea's leadership share an interest with the Kim family in maintaining the North’s system.
While North Korea has not made clear who would potentially succeed Kim, some experts believe Kim Yo Jong would step in as a leader, at least during a transitional period. Others believe North Korea could be ruled by the collective leadership of ruling party elites, similar to the post-Stalin Soviet Union.
“We have no information to confirm regarding rumours about Chairman Kim Jong Un’s health issue that have been reported by some media outlets," South Korean presidential spokesman Kang Min-Seok said. "Also, no unusual developments have been detected inside North Korea.”