New theatre for global confrontation!

Hyderabad: In October 1962 the world waited with bated breath as its only two superpowers, the USA and the USSR stared eyeball to eyeball for thirteen days over what was later termed the Cuban Missile Crisis. That was then.

Now John F. Kennedy is not the US head, it is Donald J. Trump. Nikita Kruschev is not the Soviet leader, it is Vladimir Putin, and that too not of the USSR but of a much reduced country Russia. But 56 years later another Latin American country has become a focal point of dissent between the two now-unequal powers. Yet.

Yet Venezuela, like Cuba of 1962 occupies centrestage in global tensions. Nicholas Maduro, the incumbent President feels threatened by the rise of a 35 year old opposition leader Juan Guaido. A perfectly domestic affair for Venezuela which, unfortunately draws two powers Russia and the US to the land. President Trump and the US Administration have openly supported Guaido and asked Maduro to step down. Russia has issued words of caution.

So far about 20 countries have pledged their support to Guaido who has declared himself the President while Russia, China and Turkey have thrown their weight behind Maduro. The US has already sent aids to Venezuela on Guaido's request which Maduro refuses to let in the country saying that Venezuela is not a begger. Guaido's point is that there is crisis of food and other essentials in Venezuela thanks to Maduro's poor governance and his country could very well do with aids.

Maduro sees in aids a clear indication of military interventions by the US, a fear later reinforced by Trump when he says that military action is an option. Question is: Is the US seriously mulling a military intervention? And if it acts that way what will be the reactions of Russia, China and Turkey which are with Maduro? What will be the stance of the Venezuelan armed forces which are still solidly with Maduro, with the exception of one senior Air Force officer who has pledged his support to Guaido?

Well, whatever the US or the western countries or a section of the western press would like the world to believe, Nicholas Maduro is firmly ensconced in his position till now. The powerful army is behind him. There can be two reasons why the armed forces are sticking to him and not switching sides despite Guaido's desperate efforts. One, many defence personnel are in high positions and they don't want to lose that if and when Guaido comes. Two, there is corruption in the army and there are fears for reprisals under a regime change.

Then there is the backing of Russia. Russia backs Maduro primarily because it has sunk billions of dollars in Venezuela and it does not want to see the chances of recovery of those fade in case of a regime change. The second reason may be that Russia does not want to see its clout at America's backdoor evaporate. If the US intervenes in Venezuela militarily, and Russia keeps issuing feeble warnings it may tarnish the formidable Russia image that Putin has been trying to build so carefully for the past decade.

So will Russia assume an aggresive stance vis-a-vis the US if it comes to a show of military adventurism. Can it also aid Maduro militarily? In recent past Russia gave two bombers to Venezuela. Can it bolster Maduro's arsenel in view of the threat perceptions? In other words can Russia try to checkmate the US?

Then there is Turkey which is another complex case. Turkey is a NATO member and thus an ally of the US. But it supports Venezuela. If the US intervenes in Venezuela militarily what will be Turkey's role?

Finally there is China, a strong Maduro backer. Will it be willing to incur more wrath of the US by helping Maduro in case of a US intervention? Will it risk further deterioration of its already severely strained relation with the US courtesy the trade war? Or will it remain a pasive player on the fringes thereby telling the world loud and clear that it does not want to ruffle US feathers any further and establish its weakness in dealing with an international crisis?

What will be the further movements of the nations that are behind the US in condemning Maduro like the UK, France, Germany, Australia and others? Will they be active like the US already is in making things hot for Maduro?

As of now things are a bit lukewarm in Venezuela. With the army behind him, with his supporters behind him and with three powerful nations behind him Maduro is emboldened to take on Guaido.

But everything will change once or if the US really makes a military move. Passive players may become active, fringe players may enter the arena.

One should not forget another aspect. Almost all the world's politics and wars follow economic factors. And Venezuela is a tempatation to all as it sits on possibly the world's largest oil reserve. That itself puts it in a vulnerable position.