'July-Sep GDP growth to fall below 5%'

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for Q2 (July-September) of FY 2019-20 will be released by the government on Friday and is estimated to fall below 5 per cent.

Hyderabad:Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for Q2 (July-September) of FY 2019-20 will be released by the government on Friday. Various reports, agencies and experts have estimated the Q2 growth rate would be less than the 5% registered in Q1 of FY 20.

For instance, the country’s leading lender SBI in its report has pegged Q2 GDP growth at 4.2 per cent. Other global agencies including Asian Development Bank (ADB), World Bank, OECD, RBI and IMF has also downgraded the growth rate.

Besides the domestic factors like the unemployment rate, low consumption and NPAs of banks, trade tensions between the US and China is also a cause of concern for the Indian economy.

What do the indicators say?

• The country’s GDP is on a downward path. From 8% growth in April-June 2018, it declined quarter after quarter to a six-year low 5% in April-June 2019 and has set off alarm bells among policymakers and industrialists
• India's exports contracted for the third month in a row in October by 1.11 per cent to USD 26.38. Imports too declined by 16.31 per cent to USD 37.39 billion in October, narrowing the trade deficit to USD 11 billion
• The index of Industrial Production (IIP) or the factory output contracted by 4.3 per cent, lowest in almost eight years
• Retail price based consumer inflation (CPI) spiked to a 16-month high of 4.62 per cent in October
• Wholesale Price Index (WPI) eased to a 40-month low of 0.16 per cent in October
• As per the IHS Markit, India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to a two-year low of 50.6 in October
• The output of eight core infrastructure industries contracted by 5.2 per cent in September, the lowest in the decade.