GDP data release: Economy likely contracted 8% in FY21

The Centre will release the GDP data for FY21 on Monday. According to an earlier estimate of the National Statistical Office (NSO), GDP growth is estimated at a negative 8 per cent in 2020-21 against 4 per cent recorded in 2019-20.

New Delhi: The National Statistical Office (NSO) of the Union Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation will release the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the financial year 2020-21 later on Monday.

According to an earlier estimate of the NSO, GDP growth is estimated at a negative 8 per cent in 2020-21 against 4 per cent recorded in 2019-20.

“Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2020-21 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 134.09 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of GDP for the year 2019-20 of Rs 145.69 lakh crore…..The growth in GDP during 2020-21 is estimated at -8.0 per cent as compared to 4.0 per cent in 2019-20,” the NSO said in a release on February 26, 2021.

Echoing the NSO’s views, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), during its latest bi-monthly monetary policy review, has estimated that the economy will contract by 8 per cent in the last fiscal.

The real GDP growth is projected at (-) 8.0 per cent in 2020-21, the Central Bank said in a statement on April 7, 2021.

GDP is the total volume of goods and services produced in the country and it is a major indicator of the state of the economy.

Due to Covid-19-induced restrictions on economic activities, the economy was pushed into a recession in the first six months of the previous financial year as there was a contraction during the consecutive two quarters. The revised GDP data showed 24.4 per cent de-growth in the April-June quarter and - 7.3 per cent in the July-September quarter.

However, there was some respite in the October-December quarter as the GDP witnessed 0.4 per cent positive growth.

Latest data shows 7.3% de-growth

India’s largest lender, the State Bank of India, has projected improvement in the GDP growth in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal, saying that as per its NowCasting model, the GDP growth in the fourth quarter will be 1.3% as against its earlier projection of 1.1%.

Similarly, the projected decline in the GDP growth for the last fiscal will be -7.3% as against -8% projected by the Reserve Bank.

“It is likely that the previously published CSO GDP growth for FY21 at –8% might see an upward revision once the numbers are released on 31 May 2021,” said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India early this month.