With Gen Winter settling in, Russia makes opening gambit

Announcing the mobilization of 3,00,000 reservists and the threat of nukes marks a sharp escalation of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine writes Sanjib Kr Baruah.

New Delhi: In face of massive militarization and a continuing weaponization of Ukraine by a slew of US-led nations, President Vladimir Putin’s ordering of mobilization of 300,000 reservists indicates Kremlin’s intent to sharpen escalation in the seven-month-long conflict in Ukraine that began as a special operation by Russian forces on February 24.

Announced in a seven-minute-long address on national TV on Wednesday morning, the implications of the first such mobilization ever since World War II get more serious with Putin’s warning that he isn’t bluffing over using all the means at his disposal to protect Russia’s territory—in an apparent threat to use nuclear weapons.

“To those who allow themselves such statements regarding Russia, I want to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction, and for separate components and more modern than those of NATO countries, and when the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, to protect Russia and our people, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal… It’s not a bluff,” Putin said in his address.

On Wednesday, for the first time since the Ukraine war began, Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu admitted that 5,397 Russian soldiers had been killed. The implications are all the more perilous because of several developments that together with Putin’s move signal escalation.

First, Putin may have been waiting for the winter to set in which may confer certain advantages to Moscow. Russians fight best in winter as they have the natural ability to use the elements of nature to their own advantage—as the experience with Napoleanic France and Hitler’s Nazi Germany show.

Second, Europe is already starved of Russian gas that is mainly used to heat the homes across the landmass.

Third, the mobilization order in the backdrop of the vociferous condemnation of the Russian action at the ongoing UN General Assembly session that began Tuesday (September 20) even as Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelenskky will address the gathering in a prerecorded address on Wednesday (September 21).

Fourth, on Friday (September 23), Russia is expected to begin a process of the referendum in four regions—Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and the partly Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia region. After the expected unification with Russia, the Kremlin will take it upon itself to defend and repel attacks on these four regions—providing the perfect setting for the breakout of an all-out war.

Fifth, Russia is reported to have moved its mobile firing platform and missile systems from its second bigger city of St. Petersburg and moved them towards the conflict theatre in Ukraine. St. Petersburg is otherwise guarded by a protective ring of 14 anti-aircraft missile bases.

Sixth, the beginning of troop mobilization starts with 300,000 reservists. Till now, it is believed that Russia has not yet fully deployed its Russian military regulars while having to make do with troops from regions like Georgia, Chechnya, and even Wagner Group mercenaries.

Clearly, more dangerous times are setting in as already the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has become the largest war in Europe since World War II.