Hyderabad: With each passing day, the electoral dynamics in Uttar Pradesh is changing drastically. The ruling BJP, which was expected to sweep the upcoming Assembly elections for a second time, is in rude shock to see its MLAs abandoning the party as the poll dates are fast approaching. The party was even setting the tone for 2024 general elections but the defection of MLAs has jolted the party badly.
Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath had his main focus on 80 percent of votes - leaving aside 20 percent Muslim votes - to reinforce the idea of religious polarisation using his 'Abba Jaan Jibe' among the voters who have given him a huge margin in the last elections. In a TV channel conclave, he had even made a mention about this 80 Vs 20 to contextualise the upcoming elections. By 20 percent he meant people who are in conflict with law without further explaining the ration he attributed. This raised a nationwide debate because of the figure which coincidentally matches the population ratio of Majority and religious minority.
But before he would further unveil what exactly he meant former union minister and senior Congress leader P. Chidambram took to the social media and tweeted: “In Mr. Adityanath's dictionary: Brahmin is not a caste, it is called 'learned community' In UP, 80% of voters are national, 20% of voters are anti-national. [It is a pure coincidence that 19.26% of UP's population are Muslims]”. The remarks drew a huge debate on national news channels. It was interpreted that Yogi set a tone for a religious divide ahead of polls and he meant majority vs religious minority. Samajvadi National president Akhlesh Yadav tweaked Yogi’s remarks and said 80 percent of voters are with SP and 20 percent with BJP.
The poll process became all the more interesting when a flock of powerful MLAs, including some ministers in the UP government deserted Yogi on a bitter note alleging the party was insensitive towards Dalits, OBCs, and the downtrodden. It was earlier assumed that UP elections are going to be a cakewalk for BJP given the results of poll surveys conducted by some media houses. But things have drastically changed over the last few days where 10 MLAs have already exited from BJP and many more on their way out. Swami Prasad Mauriya, one of the defected ministers said a lot many are yet to leave BJP and there will be at least one or two MLAs exiting the BJP every day.
Yogi for his unique candidature as a Mahant of Math from Eastern UP (Purvanchal) with a huge religious fan following was seen would repeat as a chief minister for India’s largest state assembly. He became chief minister in 2017 with a thumping majority in the assembly elections overshadowing all former political bigwigs. Polarisation was what served him more in 2017 elections. People cutting across caste and tribes voted for Yogi except some Muslims which were scattered and divided with no proper representation.
In 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP won 62 seats from UP only out of 301 and was seen as a major contribution of Yogi’s campaign for Modi. The party believed that Yogi and Modi both through their charismatic articulation for Hindutva helped woo voters. It was a religious divide between majority and religious minority which favoured the BJP most. But now the situation has taken a new turn for UP elections and it is going again the old fashion and caste has again taken a centre stage.
Caste, tribe, sect has again become a factor to decide the fate of the candidates in UP polls. Unlike 2017 elections, Jats, OBC, Dalits are again in search of a parallel forum to be heard who otherwise had resolved their fate with BJP assuming they will be taken care of but the recent phenomenon of desertion of BJP MLAs made it clear that it is not going to be as easy as it looked for Yogi to come to power again.
However, Akhilesh Yadav has done a lot of homework. Infact, it is learned that Akhlesh has done a thorough study in each constituency and made a list of issues people are unhappy about with the present government. Jaats led by Jayant Singh Chowdhary of RLD (Rashtrya Lok Dal) the former BJP ally joined hands with SP marking the presence of Akhlesh in their community in almost 50 assembly constituencies of Western UP.
Another non-Yadav OBC leader Om Prakash Rajbahar of Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party dents BJP in Eatern UP where they have a significant presence. Muslims which make around 19.5 percent vote share in the state with a significant presence in western UP will either vote for a non-BJP candidate or to someone who represents their aspirations.
AIMIM had announced that they will contest on 100 seats and were campaigning aggressively till some time back but it has toned down after some Muslim scholars and other key Muslim influencers appealed Assadudin Owasi to either contest where there is 100 percent winning chance or support non-BJP candidates.
Besides, Akhilesh, the strong contender against BJP, Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadhra’s pink manifesto for women will definitely play a spoilsport. It depends on how Congress will map their candidates and against who. But one thing is sure that Congress and Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) will remain insignificant in the government formation. Most of the sitting MLAs of both parties have already deserted them for SP. Akhlesh may not form the government but will give sleepless nights to Yogi is what is apparent. If Yogi emerges as a weak chief minister in 2022 polls will have huge consequences on BJP at a national level as these elections is going to be crucial for Yogi and PM Modi both.
