Tough for Biden to make any dramatic move towards Russia: Experts

Terming the Joe Biden's meeting with Vladamir Putin in Geneva, a confidence-building measure, foreign policy experts believe that it is a good chance to meet at the top level and iron out the minor differences between the US and Russia, writes Chandrakala Choudhury, ETV Bharat senior correspondent.

New Delhi:Foreign policy experts think nothing much can be expected from the upcoming Russia-US engagement because the differences between the two nations are quite stark at the moment.

Amid strained ties, US President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladamir Putin is scheduled to meet in Geneva next month as both sides seek to restore predictability and stability to the US-Russia relationship.

Now it remains to be seen as to how the normalization of ties between Russia and the US would impact India given that it is a close ally of both Russia and America.

When asked if the engagement between the two former foes will open a new chapter, India’s Former ambassador Jitendra Tripathi, in an exclusive interaction with ETV Bharat, said that it is too premature to call it a new chapter in the bilateral relations between the two nations.

Read:|Biden, Putin likely to hold summit in Geneva: Reports

“Although the relationship has been stormy between the two countries, it is a good chance to meet at the top level and iron out the minor differences and then see if there can be a convergence of ideas. This meeting is not going to bring out anything very new but yes, it is a confidence-building measure”, he added.

Speaking to ETV Bharat on the matter, Foreign policy expert, Professor Harsh V Pant, Director, Observer Research Foundation, Delhi further said, “Nothing much can be expected from the US-Russia engagement because the differences between the two nations are quite stark at this moment and there is a lot of domestic political compulsion on the democratic side to take a hard line against Russia".

"While, there is certainly recognition in Washington that America needs to reach out to Russia on a range of issues-be it nuclear arms control or stability in Europe, but there is growing apprehensions about Russia’s role in American domestic politics especially after what happened during the campaign when Trump got elected. There is a lot of Democratic Party concern and Biden will find it very hard to make any dramatic move towards Russia”, Pant pointed out.

“If US and Russia come closer, it would mean that the US will soften its attitude or stand on Russia on sanctions on supply of defence equipment, which will turn to be a benefit for India because then India does not have to worry of explaining the United States while purchasing military equipment and others.

Read:|Blinken to meet Russia's Lavrov for first time

If there is even a small hint of a thaw between America and Russia, then probably the US will not like to be hard on Russia as it is now. And may be in the time to come, we can think of United States not minding of India buying equipment from Russia including S-400 missiles”, former ambassador Tripathi further added.

Tripathi said that Biden’s approach to North Korea and China is not going to soften very shortly but if it softens towards Russia, then Russia-India and the US can have a convergence of their ideas and synergies that will be for the discomfiture of China, which will give India a little more leeway to play around in the arena.

Impact of US-Russia ties on India

When asked about the repercussion of US-Russian ties on India, Professor Pant added that if however, Russia and America agrees to reach a modus Vivendi with each other, which will be very good for India.

"In an ideal world, India would like good relations between the two major powers and that would ease a lot of burdens that India is carrying in ensuring that its relations with the US and Russia remain stable," he said.

Read:|Russian FM: US-Russia ties worse than during Cold War

The most important example is the S-400 deal where the possibility of sanctions still looms large on India as far as US congress is concerned. So far, India has been able to convince Americans that this is important for Indian security interest and the US has given India enough leeway on the matter, but if tension escalates between Russia and the United States then it would be very difficult for India to carry on with the balancing position. India will have to make a choice and, given India’s deteriorating ties with China, America is an important partner”, Pant pointed out.

US should get Moscow to tackle China together

Prof Pant underlined, “It will be a good initiative on the part of America if they can bring Russia away from China as that would change the balance of power in America’s favour and the favour of the West but that is very unlikely to happen given the domestic political context and the rising suspicions in the West as far as Russia is concerned.

“Russia’s behaviour is seen as detrimental to Western interest, which is unlikely to change shortly. America is testing the waters by reaching out to Russia and assessing if Russia is willing to make some changes in its behaviour”, he added.

Ties between Russia and the United States took an ugly turn when in March this year, US President Joe Biden said his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin is “a killer” and warned that he will soon face consequences for directing efforts to swing the 2020 US presidential election in Donald Trump’s favour.

Earlier on Tuesday, in the run-up to the upcoming Geneva summit, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and the Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolay Patrushev held consultations on United States-Russia relations as part of regular Security Council contacts.

Read:|Biden strikes tough tone on Russia in diplomatic push

The meeting was a logical continuation of the recent discussions held in Reykjavik between Secretary of State Blinken and Foreign Minister Lavrov.

According to the statement issued by the White House, the meeting was an important step in the preparation for a planned US-Russia summit, the date and location of which will be announced later.

A wide range of issues of mutual interest was discussed with a high priority given to the topic of strategic stability. The sides expressed confidence that mutually acceptable solutions could be found in several areas.