Threat to children in the third phase warns, virologist Dr. Ravi

During the first 4 weeks, it peaks up and then flattens. The situation worsened during the second phase because there were elections in different states, political rallies, Kumbh Mela was held in Haridwar involving lakhs of people. People did not bother about maintaining social distance, wearing marks, etc. Naturally, when people crowd at one place, the virus spreads fast.

Hyderabad:‘Only 4 per cent of children with coronary heart disease were infected in the first phase. Currently, it is 15 to 20 per cent and in the third phase, 85 per cent victims will be only children.’

‘Doctors and scientists have been cautioning that it is important to wear the mask, maintain physical distance and sanitize hands until the vaccination process is complete. In southern India, it is likely to decline by the end of May. The more people vaccinated before the third phase begins, the better it is'.

"The second phase of the Corona was alerted by public health professionals in late November that the second phase would be more severe. But people celebrated in January and February thinking that Corona was gone. The second phase began in the first week of March. It is estimated that not even 30 per cent of the population wore masks and followed Covid protocol at that time," said eminent virologist Dr V. Ravi.

Usually, the intensity of one phase lasts 6 to 8 weeks. During the first 4 weeks, it peaks up and then flattens. The situation worsened during the second phase because there were elections in different states, political rallies were held, Kumbh Mela was held in Haridwar involving lakhs of people. People did not bother about maintaining social distance, wearing marks, etc. Naturally, when people crowd at one place, the virus spreads fast.

Governments that listened sincerely to the advice and suggestions of experts in the first phase of Corona did not give much importance to their advice for the second time. As a result, five times as many cases were reported in the second phase and we see how serious the situation is. The third phase is looming large from next October to December. In the meantime, as many people as possible should be vaccinated. The third phase will have the greatest impact on children. In view of this, the leading virologist Dr V. Ravi believes that an effective plan should be drawn up from now on.

He recently retired after four decades of research at Nimhans Hospital in Bangalore. He was the co-chairman of the committee appointed by the Department of Science and Technology of the Central Government on the manufacture of new vaccines, a member of the Sputnik Vaccine International Advisory Council and the nodal officer of the Karnataka Covid Task Force Committee. He answered several questions in his interview with the special representative of Eenadu.

How long the second phase severity is likely to continue? How severe will the third phase be?

In the southern states, the second phase is likely to decline by the end of May. In some states, it may continue for some time. The reason for the second phase is the mistake we made. The third phase will be between October-February. If our people and leaders do not change their attitude and do not learn a lesson from the second phase, we will face more serious difficulties. We should not think that Corona has come once and will not spread again. The virus mutates. The infection persists until fully vaccinated. There is a period of 3 to 5 months between one phase and another. It remains to be seen whether 60 to 70 per cent of people are vaccinated by the third phase. About 4 per cent of children with coronary heart disease infected in the first phase…. are currently 15 to 20 per cent. In the third phase, 85 per cent of children will be victims. The number of children in our country is about 20 crores. If two crore people are infected and one per cent of them are serious...two lakh are infected. Are there enough ICU beds? That’s why we need to think about it from now on. There should be clarity on issues like how schools and colleges should be run.

Has research done in the past year come to a point where it is possible to predict the future behaviour of the virus?

The covid-19 virus is new. When it first emerged, we didn't know that it would mutate so much. We are constantly screening this. This work is being done by ten laboratories in the country. Nimhans in Bangalore is one of them. We are constantly researching five per cent of the samples. There were 50 cases from one place. Even after taking two doses, in one area it was very severe. We also collect samples from foreign travellers. A batch consists of 96 samples. It takes 10 days to make a sequence. It's all about whether the vaccine is working or not. Tests we conducted showed that 34 different variants were circulating. In this, the UK variant is 27.5 per cent. The B1.36.29 variant appeared in Karnataka. It also gradually increased. Since April, the Maharashtra variant B1.617 has been seen to be over 50 per cent more widespread due to changes in spike protein. In Delhi and Punjab, if the UK variant‌ is high, the Maharashtra variant is severe in 16 states, including Maharashtra. It is not important whether it is a new variant or the old one. The care measures are the same for everything – mask, maintaining physical distance, and sanitization.

The second dose of Covaxin is advised within 4 to 6 weeks, and the Covishield 6 to 8 weeks. Will the effect be the same if taken within the period of two weeks or will there be any difference?

There is no difference. Experiments have shown as to how many days after the first dose and after the second dose, antibodies to any vaccine are produced. The second dose was given three months later in London. Antibodies are fully developed within two to three weeks after the second dose. Waiting for more days will boost the memory cell. People need not fear. The vaccine will definitely work. Vaccination can cause infections but they are less likely to be severe. However, it spreads from them to others. That is why the mask is mandatory even when vaccinated. If the second dose is delayed for a few days there is no harm. No need to take the first dose again.

There is a severe shortage of the vaccine. How many days does this condition last?

Frontline workers, as well as older adults, are given first priority. If it was not given to the frontline workers, there would have been no medical services for the patients now. All nations have done the same. Then came the second phase. As the pressure increased we started for those over 45 and then over 18. Some even say it has an electoral strategy. I do not know. According to the government decision to give two doses to those over 18 years of age, 200 crore doses are required in our country. There is not so much production in the whole world. Now production is increasing. It will take time. Everyone must keep a mask and maintain social distance until the vaccination is complete.

What should state governments do in the current situation?

States must appoint a committee of experts. It should include a virologist or microbiologist, a public health professional. This committee should review the situation on a daily basis and give advice. Tests should be evaluated taking into account the positive rate. Advice should be given on the actions to be taken. Cases detected in one area should not extend to the entire city. This was precisely what happened last year. No government has listened to us this year. Holidays lasted for five consecutive days during Ugadi. In view of an increase in the cases, a lockdown was suggested in Bangalore; but it was not considered. Now, look what happened!

Cases are low in some states and high in some states. What is the reason for this?

Considered from a population standpoint, India has a population of 30 countries. If there is a decrease of cases in one state, there is an increase in another state. Some states are showing reduced numbers. How many people gathered at the recent election rallies ... What happened to the masks, the physical distance? How many leaders on the stages wore masks? If the leaders, who influence the people, do not follow the rules themselves, whom to blame? Doctors and scientists have been harping over and over again that it is important to wear the mask, maintain physical distance, and wash hands thoroughly until the vaccination process is complete for Corona prevention and eradication.