Semi final to 2024 LS elections: These states will go to polls in 2023

Assembly elections scheduled to be held in nine states in 2023 are being considered to be the 'semi-final' to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as their outcome will set the tone for the general elections. The mandate will play a key role not only in determining the future of Opposition unity for the 2024 battle royale but will also be a test for the BJP's strategy to retain its electoral dominance.

Hyderabad: The year 2023 will be a politically significant one as nine Assembly elections will be held in the country, the outcome of which will set the tone for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Considered to be the 'semi finals' to the Lok Sabha elections, the result of the Assembly elections will play a crucial role in the formation of opposition unity against the BJP and the saffron party's strategy to retain power at the Centre.

If Congress manages to win some of these polls, it will have more bargaining power in the Lok Sabha elections where it is trying to push Rahul Gandhi as the Opposition's Prime Ministerial candidate.

If it turns out to be in favour of the saffron party, then it will bolster BJP's claim that there is no other alternative to the Prime Minister's post than Narendra Modi. The Northeastern States-Meghalaya, Tripura and Nagaland will most likely go to polls in February-March 2023. The Assembly election is also likely to be held in Mizoram by November.

TRIPURA

The BJP stormed to power in Tripura in 2018 bagging 35 seats and unseating the CPI(M)-led Left Front Government which ruled the State for nearly two decades. However, the saffron party is likely to face a tough battle this year as it will have to deal with the challenges of anti-incumbency, frictions within the state unit as well with differences of opinion with its ally the tribal outfit Indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura. The fact that the saffron party is jittery over anti-incumbency becomes evident in its decision of replacing Biplab Deb with Manim Saha for the Chief Minister's post.

BJP is also facing the prospect of facing the tribal-based party Tripura Motha in the Assembly elections. The saffron party received a severe jolt when its Leader of the Opposition in the Autonomous District Council, Hangsha Kumar Tripura, joined the Tipra Motha along with 6,000 of his tribal supporters. The tribal outfit won the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) elections in April, last year, just two months after being formed. There is also a possibility, of the Left Front and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) backing the Tripura Motha in the next Assembly election.

MEGHALAYA

As for Meghalaya, the saffron party is loling to secure its troubled alliance with the National People’s Party (NPP). Trouble started between the two allies when last month two NPP MLAs joined the BJP. The ruling party at the Centre formed the government in Meghalaya by joining forces with the NPP after the Congress bagged 21 seats in the 2018 Assembly elections falling short of the halfway mark in the 60-member Meghalaya Assembly.

NAGALAND

Although the BJP's alliance with Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) in Nagaland is still on solid grounds in Nagaland the demand of seven tribes to form the separate state of 'Frontier Nagaland' and consequent comment of Nagaland Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio on the issue stating that the statehood demand in the eastern part of Nagaland is "not wrong" has raised eyebrows. The Union Home Ministry is closely monitoring the situation and it is against this backdrop that Nagaland will go to polls in 2023.

MIZORAM

In Mizoram, where BJP is the junior partner of the Mizo National Front (MNF), the MNF is looking to improve its tally and return to power while Congress which won five seats in the 2018 Assembly elections, is struggling to keep its flock together.

KARNATAKA

Down South, Karnataka will go to polls this year and BJP is going all out to retain power in the only southern state that it rules. However, the party has to resolve the alleged friction between former Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa and incumbent Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai. After Yediyurappa's move to skip the party's Jana Sankalpa Yatra in several areas of the State, the BJP leadership is desperately trying to iron out the differences between the two heavyweight leaders. However, both of them have issued statements denying any friction between them.

BJP's main rival in Karnataka, Congress is also scurrying to resolve the faction feud between its State president DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah, the leader of the Opposition of Karnataka Assembly over the distribution of tickets for the next Assembly elections.

CHHATTISGARH

As for Chattisgarh, where Congress achieved a humping victory in the 2018 Assembly elections winning 68 out of the 19 seats, leaving BJP with only 15 seats, the grand old party is hoping to retain power as the BJP seeks to improve its tally. Recently, Congress convincingly won the Bhanupratappur Assembly bypoll recently handing the BJP its fifth successive defeat in bypolls for the BJP since 2018.

MADHYA PRADESH

In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP is seeking to deal with the possible anti-incumbency by not naming a Chief Ministerial candidate. A section of BJP leaders in the state believe that the party will benefit in the next Assembly elections by not making CM Shivraj Chouhan its face, another section claimed that there may be a major cabinet reshuffle although Chouhan will continue to be at the helm. Congress is hoping to turn the tides in the State with its district-wise manifestos for the Assembly elections in 2023.

RAJASTHAN

Rajasthan is going to be a tough balancing act for the Congress High Command as it has to deal with the bitter feud between the two factions respectively led by Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and his party colleague Sachin Pilot. Last year, MLAs loyal to Gehlot refused to attend the Legislature Party meeting earning the wrath of the High Command. Gehlot eventually had to drop out of the race for the party president's post but continues to be different taking frequent jibes at Pilot. While BJP is seeking to capitalize on the Gehlot-Pilot feud, it also has t deal with its own faction feud in the State.

TELANGANA

Telangana is likely to witness a direct contest between the revamped Bharat Rashtra Samity (BRS), formerly known as Telangana Rashtra Samity led by Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao. Although the ruling BRS defeated the BJP in the recent Munugodu by-poll, the margin was only 10,000 votes. The BRS seeking to play a national role in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is keen on getting a head start by retaining power in Telangana.

JAMMU and KASHMIR

As for Jammu and Kashmir, there is speculation of Assembly elections being held there following the remark of the BJP in-charge for Jammu and Kashmir, hinting at the early elections. He has urged party members to reach out to voters further fuelling speculations of early polls. While BJP heavyweights Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and party President JP Nadda are expected to visit the Union Territories in the next couple of months, the Opposition parties are also gearing up. The National Conference has reiterated its demand for the restoration of Article 370 and statehood to Jammu and Kashmir.