New Delhi:Discussions, contemplation, high-level diplomatic talks, hard negotiations are underway to quash tension at the Russia-Ukraine border. With conflict flaring up between Russia and Ukraine, a geopolitical shift is witnessed in the region.
The United States has warned that Russian aggression against Ukraine would have implications for the security environment well beyond that neighborhood. It indicated that whether it is the PRC (People's Republic of China), whether it is India, whether it is countries around the world, the implications would be far-reaching.
Now if there is a possible confrontation between Biden-led West and Putin’s Russia, what implications it would have on India’s international relations? Because India has close and neutral relations with the major powers- the US, Russia, Ukraine, or the EU.
Speaking to ETV Bharat, former diplomat Achal Malhotra said, “I can only think of severe economic sanctions being imposed on Russia by Americans and the Europeans and their allies that could have a direct and indirect impact on India as well because we may find ourselves in a difficult position.
Although in the case of S-400, we have not allowed ourselves to be persuaded against buying anything from Russia. But, it may be recalled that when Americans had put sanctions on buying Iranian oil, India had problems. Not only India but many other countries are likely to be affected. This is possible because India has maintained a neutral stance over the crisis”, he added.
Earlier this week, India along with Kenya and Gabon has abstained from the procedural vote on taking up Ukraine issue at the UNSC and called for immediate de-escalation of tensions which takes into account legitimate security interests of all countries.
Ex-ambassador Malhotra noted that maybe the Americans are thinking in terms of sort of 'alerting' India that they should take a stand, which would be more in alliance with the Americans and NATO allies and we should also come out in the open with Russia. But taking sides is not India’s policy.
“India doesn’t like to be part of alliances but believes in partnerships. In case of partnerships, there is no such conditionality”, he added.
He underlined that overall the situation is not good given stability, peace, and tranquillity in Europe and beyond. A lot of diplomatic efforts are being made so far and there is a dialogue going on within the Normandy format between France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine. Therefore, both sides (US, Russia) are aware of the serious consequences if there is an outbreak of war.
Meanwhile, the United States has maintained that America's relationship with India stands on its own merits and has not been impacted by the ongoing tension with Russia, State Department spokesperson Ned Price has said, days after India abstained from a procedural vote in the UN Security Council to discuss the situation on the Ukraine border.
In response to a query, if the US ties with India have been impacted due to the tension with Russia over the Ukraine crisis, Price said, "We have a relationship with India that stands on its own merits".
According to reports, Russia is reported to have amassed an estimated 100,000 troops near the border with Ukraine. Moscow is demanding that NATO promise never to allow Ukraine to join the military alliance, and to stop the deployment of NATO weapons near Russian borders and roll back its forces from Eastern Europe. The US and NATO have rejected Russia's demands.
Commenting on this, Achal Malhotra said, “It is clear that the demands which Russia is making on NATO, is very difficult for NATO to agree in black and white that they will not admit Ukraine or Georgia into NATO".
He recalled that in 2008 also when Russia and Georgia went to war, Georgia was counting on support from NATO but they didn’t come forward. Similarly, when Crimea was annexed by Russia, also there was no military intervention by NATO. "There may not be any military intervention, even this time because the consequences are going to be extremely bad and Europe is going to be affected directly”, the foreign policy expert pointed out.
However, on Thursday, US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said that Washington has been in touch with New Delhi at different levels on the tense situation. Price said, “the US has been in touch with various countries around the world including our Indian partners, on our concerns regarding Russia's military build-up, its unprovoked potential aggression against Ukraine. These are conversations that we've had at many different levels".
At the UNSC meeting on Ukraine held on Monday, India’s ambassador to the UN, TS Tirumurti urged all parties to continue to engage through all diplomatic channels and to keep working towards the full implementation of the Minsk package, while adding that 'quiet' and 'constructive diplomacy' is the need of the hour.
"Any steps that increase may best be avoided by all sides in the larger interests of securing international peace and security”, Tirumurti pointed out. Pertinently, there are more than 20,000 Indian students and nationals who leave and study in different parts of Ukraine including in its border areas. Tirumurti highlighted that the well-being of Indian nationals is of priority to India and reiterated the country’s call for the peaceful resolution of the situation by sincere and sustained diplomatic efforts to ensure that concerns are resolved through constructive dialogue.
