Omicron surge may hit rural India harder: Prof Manoj Jain

A US-based epidemiologist and public health professor Manoj Jain told ETV Bharat that the Omicron surge may hit rural India and that the R0 of Omicron could be as high as 12.

Hyderabad: Dr. Manoj Jain, a US-based epidemiologist, and public health professor in an exclusive interview to ETV Bharat, said that there is a risk of six to twelve people being infected by one person. He added that the next two to four weeks in India would be crucial and there would be a huge increase in cases, especially in rural India.

"The Centre needs to focus its attention on rural India. At present, a single person infected with the Omicron variant could transmit the disease to 6 to 12 people. The Covid-19 case count is on a decline in most of the countries except India. The next 2 to 4 weeks are crucial for the country. There is likely to be an exponential rise in cases here. People in the US have opened their eyes to the misinformation being spread on social media”, explained Dr Jain.

What would be the impact of shortened self-isolation period?

The isolation period should have been 7 to 10 days. Owing to the rising number of infections in public and healthcare professionals alike, the duration has been cut down to 5 days. Rapid spread can be controlled if the infected stay isolated for at least 7 days. If you test negative after Day 5, it is better to follow a doctor’s advice about continuing isolation

But we see a fall in cases. Is Covid becoming an endemic?

Cases are continuing to decline in South Africa and in the UK. Same with the US. But the next 2 to 4 weeks are crucial for India. We may see a record rise in cases. The central government needs to specially monitor the rural populace as they lack access to medical facilities. Though Omicron is a milder variant, the transmission rate is high. So, the situation may take a turn for the worse in small towns and villages. The government must stay vigilant. We expect the pandemic to turn into an endemic in 6 months.

How to stay protected against Covid?

The people must continue to mask up and getting vaccinated is of paramount importance. Depending on the severity of infection, monoclonal antibodies, and the soon-to-be available antiviral drugs will be helpful. It is necessary to follow a doctor’s guidance for treatment.

Why are the Americans refusing to get vaccinated?

Social media is full of conspiracy theories on vaccines. People have taken those at face value. But of late, they realized the efficacy of vaccines. More Americans are coming forward to get their jabs. Immunocompromised individuals may experience Covid symptoms post vaccination. But that is nothing to worry about since the symptoms should go away in a few days.

Why is Omicron spreading so fast?

I have never seen a virus transmit so fast in recent times as Omicron. The first Covid variant had an R0 of 2 to 2.5. With the Delta variant, it was 5. But in the case of Omicron, a single infected individual could transmit the disease to 6 to 12 people. It has become as contagious as measles used to be. The first two variants recorded a fatality rate of 1.6 percent. The latest variant, fortunately, is not nearly as fatal. In fact, Omicron is replacing Delta. Despite the rise in transmission rate, the Omicron variant causes less severe disease.