Not a force to reckon with, yet win-win for Owaisi & Dhinakaran

Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has forged an alliance with TTV Dhinakaran’s Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) in the ensuing Legislative Assembly Elections in Tamil Nadu. Across the state in the past Assembly election, the winning margin in 10 seats was less than 1000 and it was less than 3,000 in about 25 seats. Considering this, both Dravidian majors bring Muslim parties in their fold to increase their chances, writes ETV Bharat Assistant News Editor R Prince Jebakumar.

Hyderabad: Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has forged an alliance with TTV Dhinakaran’s Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) in the ensuing Legislative Assembly Elections in Tamil Nadu and is contesting in three segments. Will Asaduddin Owaisi become a factor in Tamil Nadu? What will he gain? Will his offering help AMMK inch closer to its actual agenda of unseating the incumbent AIADMK? Whether this would lead to the polarisation of the votes is another question?

Unlike in Bihar where AIMIM managed to win 5 segments, the chances of AIMIM winning any of the 3 segments it contests in Tamil Nadu seems remote. The present alliance will help Owaisi to shrug off the BJP-B team image which critics attribute to him, as the AMMK is likely to take a strong anti-BJP stand. As for the AMMK, the election will help them add to its existing base it gained from AIADMK’s loss in Lok Sabha Poll 2019.

The M-factor

As per the 2011 census, the population of Muslims stood at 42 lakhs accounting for nearly 6 per cent of the total 7.21 crore population. This translates to the electorate in proportion to few thousands in some and not exceeding 1 lakh in any of the segments which makes them a minority who can make the swing but not win all by itself with their consolidation.

Across the state in the past Assembly election, the winning margin in 10 seats was less than 1000 and it was less than 3,000 in about 25 seats. Considering this, both Dravidian majors bring Muslim parties in their fold to increase their chances. The DMK had in 2016 - two Muslim parties in the alliance- Indian Union Muslim League(IUML) and Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK). IUML which contested in 5 seats won in one and MMK which contested in 3 did not open the account. Manithaneya Jananayaga Katchi and Tamil Maanila Muslim League, both aligned with AIADMK contested in one seat each and lost in that election.

Tryst with DMK

DMK did not want itself to be associated with Owaisi for he was seen as an outsider and carrying the BJP-B team tag. AIMIM local unit confirms the same. Originally, AIMIM which is in its second attempt at Legislative Assembly polls in Tamil Nadu has planned to contest nearly 40 seats if they had to go it alone. With DMK going strong on the anti-BJP campaign, AIMIM later decided to enter the DMK alliance, hoping it would also help them gain inroads in Tamil Nadu.

Several attempts were made to strike a chord with DMK. As it failed to elicit any response from the Principal Opposition, AIMIM knocked on the doors of AMMK to a warm reception. Earlier in January, DMK withdrew its invitation to Owaisi to compromise allies at home when its minority wing hosted its conference a couple of months back. Initially, DMK denied having invited Owaisi. The latter rebutted the claim by releasing a video.

Owaisi’s charm

The said Muslim parties are locally popular and are restricted to their operations within Tamil Nadu except for the IUML. They had been warming up to both the Dravidian parties ever since Congress was ousted from power in the State. The charisma in Owaisi and AIMIM’s performance in Bihar Assembly Elections are factors that might influence most Muslims in the strongholds. It might also help AMMK mop up a few thousand votes which will, in turn, increase its percentage. Any rise in this combine will in turn hurt the prospects of the AIADMK.

Owaisi might not be able to charm the entire Muslim population in one go in Tamil Nadu even as he is looking forward to West Bengal and already have opened his tally in Maharashtra and in the civic polls in Gujarat.