New regional front emerges 'dark horse' for Assam polls

A new political front has burst into the scene for the upcoming state assembly elections in Assam which can turn out to be much more than a headache for the ruling BJP-led NDA in the state if the new party can get its act right, writes senior journalist Sanjib Kr Baruah.

New Delhi: Based on strong regional aspirations, identity politics and visceral opposition to the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), two political entities, hitherto untested on the battle for the ballot, have come together to fight the upcoming Assam assembly elections slated for mid-April.

One of the two entities is the fledgeling Asom Jatiya Parishad (AJP) while the other is the Raijor Dal (RD).

The new front has the potential of emerging as a ‘dark horse’ that can upset electoral predictions. While its potential support base can be veritably far and wide, the core question is whether the new outfit can transform its support into an electoral reality in terms of numbers.

The announcement of the joining of forces was made on Thursday.

The political journey to the formation of the new front has its proximate reason in Assam in the widespread disturbances and protests over the Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB) that became the CAA after Parliament passed it on December 11, 2019.

While the protests against CAB began in January 2019, they began in earnest from about October 2019. Violence broke out after CAB became CAA.

CAA fast-tracks Indian citizenship for non-Muslims who arrived in India from Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and Pakistan on or before December 31, 2014.

Asom Jatiya Parishad (AJP)

AJP, led by Lurinjyoti Gogoi, is backed by the powerful All Assam Students’ Union (AASU). So it has the AASU’s broad-based organizational strength and spread across the Brahmaputra Valley.

Having drawn most members and supporters of the nearly-defunct Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) to its fold, the AJP hopes to cash in on the support of the Assamese-regionalists which has been an omnipresent political force in lesser or greater degrees in the state from time to time.

Lurinjyoti is former general secretary of the AASU, the student outfit that led the six-year-long anti-foreigner’s agitation from 1979 to 1985.

A key but unutilized strength of the AJP is the fact that many of its supporters are young and very tech-savvy with a different perspective to the political narrative of the state.

Not for them are the traditional political geographies of Upper and Lower Assam or the caste equations but a political ideology that seeks limit to central powers while rooting for strong federalism that will fetch dividends to Assam.

Raijor Dal (RD)

On the other hand, led by peasant leader and RTI activist Akhil Gogoi, the Raijor Dal (RD) is the political party of the Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti (KMSS).

Akhil Gogoi’s credit lies in the fact that for the first time ever, he has organized the farmers under a single umbrella, otherwise a constituency largely neglected by the political masters because of its lack of cohesive organisational presence despite Assam being a dominantly agrarian state.

Over the years, the KMSS has carved out its own niche support base in Assam by leading an anti-dam movement and by RTI activism.

Besides peasantry in general, the party has substantial goodwill among the critically important Bengali-speaking Muslims of west Assam which will cut into the till-now dedicated vote-bank of the Badruddin Ajmal-led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF).

The fact that the KMSS opposed the CAA will further consolidate its political footprint among the Bengali-speaking Muslims.

Moreover, there is a view that the incarcerated Akhil Gogoi may have been ‘victimized’ by the administration which has found expression now and then in public meetings and protests in many places in the state.

In other words, like the AJP, how far the support for RJ gets translated into votes is the primary question.

Other Tie-Ups

Significantly, the AJP already has an alliance with the Autonomous State Demand Committee (ASDC), a tribal party that has significant sway among the Karbi tribe.

The new political front is also trying to come to an understanding with the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), an important political force in the Bodo-dominated areas of western Assam.

While the Congress electoral prospects have much dimmed than ever before, the AIUDF is believed to have reached critical mass.

The Congress will fight the polls in an alliance with the AIUDF, CPI-Marxist, CPI, and CPI (Marxist-Leninist).

2016 Assam Elections

In the 2016 state polls, the BJP won in 60 of the total of 126 seats in the state. Its allies the AGP bagged 14 while the BPF won 12. On the other hand, the Congress won in 26, the AIUDF in 13. One independent candidate had won. (END)