Patna: Ahead of the Bihar by-polls, RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav on Tuesday had expressed confidence that his party will emerge victorious in Kusheshwar Asthan and Tarapur assembly seats and will form government in the state. He will also be addressing one meeting each in both the constituencies on Wednesday, sources said, adding that the RJD leader is next eyeing the upcoming Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls to field candidates.
Lalu who hails from Gopalganj is an MP from Chhapra, keeps a close eye on the political equation in Purvanchal due to its proximity with Bihar. For the last several elections, RJD has not fielded candidates in Uttar Pradesh and has been supporting the Samajwadi Party. But this time it is possible that RJD will field candidates in alliance with Akhilesh Yadav.
Already, RJD state President, Ashok Singh had signalled indications in this regard stating that the party leaders are excited by Lalu's reentry in Bihar politics.
"Lalu Prasad Yadav will be campaigning in this by-election and also in all other poll-bound states including Uttar Pradesh. We will work towards defeating communal forces," said Ejaz Ahmed, RJD spokesperson.
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Reacting to Lalu's statement that the RJD would win in the assembly by-poll, BJP spokesperson Vinod Sharma says, "Lalu Yadav campaigns are not going to have any effect. People get scared by remembering his reign in Bihar. Lalu Yadav is fighting a battle to save his political existence. Earlier, he had backed Akhilesh in Uttar Pradesh, but the latter lost the election badly. This time also Lalu Yadav is not going to succeed."
"Lalu Prasad Yadav cannot think anything else above family. Akhilesh is also a part of the same clan. Lalu Prasad will not taste success in UP," Abhishek Jha, JD(U) spokesperson said.
However, according to Dr Sanjay Kumar, a Political Analyst, "Lalu Yadav shares a close relationship with Purvanchal and will definitely try to create an impact in the area. Also, the people of border districts have a 'beti-roti' relationship. Lalu Yadav would like to make his presence felt in Purvanchal."
All political parties have begun their respective election campaigns ahead of the UP Assembly polls next year. In order to defeat the BJP in the political battle of the state, the opposition parties are trying their best and are busy chalking out various political strategies.
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Recently, Nationalist Congress Party Sharad Pawar, Samajwadi Party's Ram Gopal Yadav and Bihar Congress' Akhilesh Prasad Singh had met the RJD supremo Lalu Yadav at the residence of Rajya Sabha MP Misa Bharti in Delhi.
Without the support of the OBC vote bank in UP, no party can form a government with an absolute majority. To be in power at the centre, it is necessary to have the support of a large part of this vote bank in favour of a party. Because according to the Mandal Commission report, the representation of OBCs in the total population of the country is more than 50 per cent.
Talking about the OBC vote bank in UP, it can be divided into Yadav and non-Yadav. At the same time, according to the 'Social Justice Report' of 2001, the share of backward classes in the population of Uttar Pradesh is about 54 per cent.
According to the data of the Uttar Pradesh Backward Commission, so far a total of 79 castes are included in OBC in UP. While 70 other castes have applied to the commission to include themselves in the OBC list. Yadavs constitute 19.4 per cent of these 70 OBC castes and their share in the state's population is 10.52%.
According to CSDS (Centre for the Study of Developing Societies) data, the non-Yadav OBC castes in UP comprise of Kurmi 7.5%, Lodh 4.9%, Gadaria/Pal 4.4%, Nishad/Mallah 4.3%, Teli/Shahu 4%, Jats 3.6 %, Kumhar/Prajapati 3.4%, Kahar/Kashyap 3.3%, Kushwaha/Shakya 3.2%, Barber 3%, Rajbhar 2.4% and Gurjar 2.12%.
In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, only 22% of OBCs voted for the BJP and 42% chose regional parties. But within a decade, the BJP's support base among the OBCs has changed dramatically. While BJP got 34% OBC votes in 2014, 44% OBCs voted for BJP during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Now to bring back this mass base, Lalu has thought it right to lay focus next on the UP elections, after Bihar by-polls.
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