India must adopt a policy that envisages competition, containment to counter Beijing: Expert

India will host the first India-Central Asia Summit with the participation of the Presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, in a virtual format tomorrow, 27 January 2022. ETV Bharat's Chandrakala Choudury talks to former diplomat Achal Malhotra to gauge the significance of the Summit and thereafter.

New Delhi: India will host the first India-Central Asia Summit with the participation of the Presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, in a virtual format tomorrow, 27 January 2022. From New Delhi’s perspective, the summit is symbolic of the importance attached by the Leaders of India and the Central Asian countries to a comprehensive and enduring India-Central Asia partnership. Moreover, a summit-level meeting would provide an opportunity to shore up its ties and reinforce trust at the highest level.

Speaking to ETV Bharat, India’s former diplomat and foreign policy expert Achal Malhotra said, “As far as India-Central Asia is concerned, India has been trying to outreach this region for quite some time. Almost more than 10 years ago, India had announced a policy of connecting central Asia and the idea is to cultivate this region to the extent possible because it is important to New Delhi in terms of connectivity, sourcing precious requirements like Uranium from Kazakhstan or the gas pipeline from Turkmenistan. And also to be relevant to this region, India has been trying to engage all the countries in the region and we have had some good relations with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan. Now in the context of Afghanistan run over by the Taliban, as a result of which India’s role and influence in that country has diminished to a great extent and India have limited leverages in the country, therefore, the importance of Iran and Central Asia has increased many folds in India’s foreign policy”.

The China factor

Meanwhile, as India aims to become a leading player in the Central Eurasian landmass, China seems to be flexing its muscles and giving a hot competition in the region. Most interestingly, days before Prime Minister Narendra Modi is slated to host the India-Central Asia summit, China held a virtual summit on Tuesday to mark 30 years of diplomatic ties with the Central Asian countries. During the summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the provision of a USD 500 million donation to the Central Asian countries over the next three years for the implementation of socially significant projects.

This was China’s first major diplomatic action for Central Asia this year and the first heads-of-state meeting between China and the five Central Asia countries. As of now, India does not seem to be competing against China directly in the region but as Chinese influence grows in the region, competition is inevitable for New Delhi.

Former diplomat Malhotra said that as far as China is concerned, it shares borders with many of the Central Asian countries. The region is very important from China’s Belt and Road initiative and in any case, China is trying to have its foothold in as many countries as possible all across the world including Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bangladesh Maldives. So this is an ongoing process. He, therefore, opined that with China, India has to adopt a policy that envisages competition, containment.

“And if China behaves on the border, India can think in terms of cooperation and collaboration because there are many areas where we should act together. Also, there is a potential economically but given China’s attitude, things are not shaping up well. Therefore, it is a ground reality that India has to face and the competition will continue. India’s efforts to contain China’s influence to the extent that it doesn’t damage India’s interest is a constant endeavor that our policymakers are making”, he added.

China is the biggest investor in the region and China’s BRI has contributed to the development of infrastructure in the Central Asian region. The foreign policy expert further pointed out that for the past several years, China has been engaging with Central Asia countries and with some of the countries, China has resolved its border dispute and with some, the dispute remains an economic penetration has also been there.

He said, “It’s not that China has woken up overnight to contain India’s growing influence in the region. Finally, it will depend on how these countries react and I think today, most of the smaller countries have come to realize the pitfalls of engaging China beyond the point. And I am sure, the Central Asian countries are aware of it”.

He noted that another factor which is to India’s advantage is that despite the fact, Russia-China relations are on the upswing, Russia would never like China to have any strong influence in Central Asia because Russia considers Central Asia as its backyard or post-Soviet space or area of its natural interest. Russia is very aggressive in making sure that there is no encroachment on the post-Soviet space.

India’s initiatives in Central Asia

India has taken several initiatives in the last few years in the Central Asia region. Some of the major bilateral focus has been connectivity, trade, development partnership, culture, and people-to-people contact. The highest trade between India and Kazakhstan stands at USD 1.9 billion in 2020-21. India has extended a USD 200 million Line of Credit in 2019 to the Kyrgyz Republic. Telemedicine centers have been established by India in Kyrgyz. On a similar note, there is strong cooperation in the defence sector including the India-Tajik friendship hospital and both nations hold similar positions in Afghanistan. In terms of Uzbekistan, the bilateral trade between both countries is around USD 300 million. India has extended a Line of Credit of USD 1 billion to Uzbekistan in 2018 and four projects worth USD 450 million have been approved by India.

The first India-Central Asia Summit to be held on Thursday, 27 January 2022 is a reflection of India’s growing engagement with the Central Asian countries, which are a part of India’s "Extended Neighbourhood”. Prime Minister Narendra Modi paid a historic visit to all Central Asian countries in 2015. Subsequently, there have been exchanges at high levels at bilateral and multilateral forums.

During the first India-Central Asia Summit, the leaders are expected to discuss steps to take forward India-Central Asia relations to newer heights. They are also expected to exchange views on regional and international issues of interest, especially the evolving regional security situation.