New Delhi: Rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half of 2021, i.e. August to September period, southwest monsoon season is most likely to be normal, the India Meteorological Department informed, on Monday. It is expected to be 95 to 105 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a tendency to be on the positive side of the normal. IMD predicted the LPA of the August to September period rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 428.3 mm.
"Below normal to normal rainfall is likely over many parts of the northwest, east and northeast parts of the country. Normal to above-normal rainfall is most likely to experience over most parts of peninsular India and adjacent central India," said Director General of IMD, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra while addressing a virtual press conference.
Speaking over the Sea Surface Temperature (SSTs) conditions, he said that the atmospheric conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean indicate neutral ENSO conditions. However, the SSTs over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is showing a cooling tendency. He said, "The latest forecasts from MMCFS and other global models suggest that ENSO neutral conditions are likely to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season and increased possibility of re-emergence of the La Nina conditions at the end of the monsoon season or thereafter."
He informed that in addition to ENSO conditions over the Pacific, other factors such as the Indian Ocean SSTs also influence on Indian monsoon. Currently, the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Indian Ocean. The latest forecasts indicate that negative IOD conditions are likely to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season.