New Delhi: Even as the Israel-Hamas war that has claimed over 4,000 lives on both sides so far rages on, Iran-backed Shia militant group Hezbollah is exchanging fire with Israeli forces from across the border in Lebanon. Though there has been a fierce exchange of fire between both sides for over a week now, cross-border shelling has been limited so far. However, this has not stopped speculations arising about whether Hezbollah is opening a new front of war even as Israel engages with Hamas in Gaza.
Though Iran and Hezbollah are both Shia entities, they have a deep-seated ideological and religious affinity with the Palestinian cause, which is seen as a struggle against what they perceive as oppression and injustice. Many Palestinians are Sunni Muslims, but this doesn’t negate the strong ideological connections that exist, especially when it comes to confronting Israel, which is viewed as a common adversary.
Iran and Hezbollah have consistently opposed the State of Israel and its policies in West Asia. They see Israel’s establishment as a historic injustice, and they are committed to supporting any group or cause that resists Israeli occupation and what they view as Israeli aggression in the region. Experts, though, believe that the current exchange of fire and limited shelling that Hezbollah is resorting to is more a warning to deter Israel from launching a ground offensive in Gaza. Israel too is giving a measured response and the conflict between the two sides has not escalated.
“Any Israeli ground offensive in Gaza is likely to set off a chain reaction, drawing in coordinated missile or rocket attacks on Israel in support of Hamas from Hezbollah in the north, Houthis in the south, and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, all pro-Iranian non-state actors,” R Dayakar, former Indian Ambassador to Iraq and Jordan who also served in the West Asia desk of the Ministry of External Affairs, told ETV Bharat. “Islamic State remnants in Syria may also join in support of Hamas.”
Dayakar also does not rule out the possibility of Turkey joining the war in support of Hamas. Though Iran has been warning Israel against going for a ground offensive in Gaza, it does not share a common border with the Jewish nation. Iran also does not have missiles that can cross 300 km and reach Israeli territory. But both Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen have missiles supplied by Iran.
But can Hezbollah afford to engage in a war with Israel? Does it have the wherewithal?
According to Nicholas Blanford, an expert on Hezbollah in the Washington DC-based Atlantic Council think tank, Hezbollah today has the ability to inflict the greatest damage on Israel. Hezbollah has at least 60,000 fighters, both full-time and reservists, Blanford was quoted as saying by Al Jazeera. The group also has a stockpile of 150,000 missiles. These include short-range missiles and Iran-supplied precision-guided missiles with a range of 300 km. The Hezbollah also has a special force, the members of which are trained to infiltrate Israel in case of war.
But, has Hezbollah and Israel engaged in a war before?
Yes. The 2006 Lebanon War, also called the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War and known in Lebanon as the July War and in Israel as the Second Lebanon War was a 34-day military conflict in Lebanon, northern Israel and the Golan Heights. The principal parties were Hezbollah and Israel. The war was sparked after Hezbollah took two Israeli soldiers captive from the Lebanon-Israel border.
Hezbollah demanded the release of Lebanese prisoners held by Israel in exchange for the release of the abducted soldiers. Israel refused and responded with airstrikes and artillery fire on targets in Lebanon. Israel attacked both Hezbollah military targets and Lebanese civilian infrastructure, including Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon. Israel also imposed an air and naval blockade. Hezbollah then launched more rockets into northern Israel and engaged the IDF in guerrilla warfare from hardened positions.
There was no proper conclusion of the war but Lebanon suffered the heaviest civilian casualties. The conflict is believed to have killed between 1,191 and 1,300 Lebanese nationals and 165 Israelis. It severely damaged Lebanese civil infrastructure, and displaced approximately one million Lebanese and 300,000–500,000 Israelis.
Coming to today’s context, Dayakar believes that if Hezbollah engages in a full-scale war with Israel, the latter’s response will be strong. “Israel, going by past history, is not the one to hold back and will respond with heavy reprisals,” Dayakar said. “The US, with two naval carrier groups positioned in the eastern Mediterranean in support of Israel, would also intervene.”
Dayakar said that if Iran is behind the unprecedented October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel, as is believed in some quarters, then it may also enter the fighting directly, apart from its proxies. “President Biden described the situation as an ‘inflection point in history’,” he said. “However, at the moment, Israel seems to aim at getting back its nationals in Hamas custody safely and to neutralise the Hamas military and non-military leaders through targeted airstrikes.”
