Hamas attack: Why Israeli intelligence failure may threaten PM Netanyahu's leadership

The Israeli intelligence apparatus was caught unawares by the Hamas attack on Israel. Ahead of the attack, thousands of people in Israel have been coming out on the streets every week in protest against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s judicial reforms. Will all these have any implications for Netanyahu’s leadership? writes ETV Bharat’s Aroonim Bhuyan.

New Delhi: In what is being seen as a repeat of the Yom Kippur War almost to the day 50 years ago, Israeli intelligence was caught completely napping when the Hamas militant group launched its attack codenamed ‘Operation Al Aqsa Flood’ on Israel early Saturday morning. On October 6, 1973, which also happened to be the Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur, Egyptian and Syrian tank columns crossed their corresponding ceasefire lines with Israel and entered the Sinai Peninsula and Golan Heights. The Israeli forces were caught completely off guard.

After three days of heavy fighting, Israel halted the Egyptian offensive, resulting in a military stalemate on that front, and pushed the Syrians back to the pre-war ceasefire lines. While Israel was able to regain the offensive after the Yom Kippur War, the massive casualties of the war were seen as then-Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir’s failure, and she resigned from office in 1974. The Yom Kippur War had cost Israel 2,656 dead soldiers and 7,251 injured. As many as 294 prisoners of war had been captured by the enemy.

In a chilling coincidence, Hamas launched ‘Operation Al Aqsa Flood’ from the Palestinian enclave of Gaza on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea on Saturday, which also happened to be the sacred Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah. Like in 1973, the Israeli intelligence system was caught completely unawares. Reports suggest that the Israeli border surveillance system was jammed prior to the attack. There were multiple breaches of the barrier around the Gaza Strip. It was a carefully coordinated operation involving thousands of rockets, explosives to pierce the border fence, ultralights, motorbikes, cars, drones and even an attack by boat that eventually failed.

The attack pierced Israel’s mobile all-weather air defence system, Iron Dome. The system is designed to intercept and destroy short-range rockets and artillery shells fired from distances of four km to 70 km away and whose trajectory would take them to an Israeli-populated area. While the death toll in Israel due to this intelligence failure was put at between 500 and 600 till the time of filing of this report, the toll in Gaza due to Israel’s retaliatory attacks had crossed 300. The huge death toll in Israel will lead to a lot of bloodletting in Israel where there is already a lot of domestic political turmoil after the far-right coalition government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu came to power. It will involve the careers of intelligence and military officials whose systems completely failed to detect the attack in advance. So, like in the case of Golda Meir, will Netanyahu’s leadership now be threatened?

“Let us look at this in two separate ways,” Talmiz Ahmad, former Indian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), told ETV Bharat. “Netanyahu affiliated himself with the extreme right-wing elements in his country – the extreme right religious elements and the extreme right nationalistic elements. These elements used to be marginal in the country, but Netanyahu brought them into the mainstream.” Ahmad said that Netanyahu had to bring in these elements as he needed to be in government largely to protect himself from criminal prosecution.

“He also needs their help to bring about changes in the country’s constitution so that the Supreme Court’s power to implement Israeli law, which would enable the prosecution of the Prime Minister will be diluted,” he explained. Netanyahu is facing trial in court following investigations into allegations of bribery, fraud and breach of trust by him and close political allies within his inner circle during his fourth and fifth terms as Israel’s Prime Minister. The Israel police began investigating Netanyahu in December 2016 and subsequently recommended indictments against him. In November 2019, Netanyahu was officially indicted for breach of trust, accepting bribes and fraud, leading him to legally relinquish his ministry portfolios other than the Prime Minister. Netanyahu's trial in the Jerusalem District Court began in May 2020, with witness testimony starting in April 2021. The criminal trial is still going on.

Netanyahu is seeking to change the country’s judicial system and the balance of powers. The Israeli judicial reform was proposed in January 2023 and passed in July 2023. It seeks to curb the judiciary’s influence over lawmaking and public policy by limiting the Supreme Court’s power to exercise judicial review, granting the government control over judicial appointments and limiting the authority of its legal advisors. This has led to widespread public protests across Israel.

Coming to the current conflict, Ahmad said that this was caused by the Jewish extremist elements. He said that till a few months ago, Hamas was seen as a moderate element. It did not participate in the uprising of the Islamic Jihad against the Israelis in April this year and this was recognised by commentators in the region.

“But over the last year since Netanyahu formed the new government, there has been a significant upsurge against the Palestinians,” Ahmad said. “Extremist (Israeli) settlers in the West Bank have been attacking the Palestinians. And secondly, these settlers have been consistently supported by the security forces.”

The former Ambassador also pointed out that the Al Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem has been desecrated by Israeli religious zealots in recent times. Al Aqsa is held sacred both by the Jews and the Muslims. Jews call the site Temple Mount. Last month, Israeli forces imposed tight security measures ejecting worshippers from Al Aqsa Mosque and intensifying their presence around it, denying access to any Palestinian below the age of 50 to clear the way for Israeli settlers on Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year.

In recent times, Israeli religious nationalists such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir have increased their visits to the Al Aqsa compound. Last week, during the Jewish harvest festival of Sukkot, hundreds of ultra-orthodox Jews and Israeli activists visited the mosque drawing condemnation from Hamas and accusations that Jews praying there violates the status quo agreement.

“Netanyahu has failed to control these extremist elements,” Ahmad said. “That is why the Hamas is calling its current operation Al Aqsa Flood.” So, what will be the implications for Netanyahu’s leadership now? Ahmad said that as long as the conflict continues, Netanyahu will not face consequences. Though people are coming out in thousands every week in Jerusalem and other parts of Israel against the judicial reforms, Netanyahu has managed to stay in power. But, once the conflict ends, serious questions will be raised about the colossal failure of the Israeli intelligence system.

He said that in recent times, during conflicts between Israel and Palestinians, casualties on the Israeli side used to be in single-digit or double-digit numbers while those on the Palestinian side used to cross the three-figure mark. But this time, with casualties on the Israeli side crossing the three-figure mark, many questions will arise from the Israeli people.

Meanwhile, the Iran-backed armed Lebanese group Hezbollah said that it was “in direct contact with the leadership of the Palestinian resistance”. According to a Reuters report, Hezbollah launched guided rockets and artillery fire at the disputed Shebaa Farms on Sunday “in solidarity” with the Palestinian people. Israel retaliated by firing barrages of artillery into southern Lebanon. So, is Israel faced with a war on two fronts?

“It is, too, early to jump to conclusions,” Ahmad said. “The Hezbollah only attacked a disputed area and not directly any Israeli territory. It said that it has done this in solidarity with the Palestinian people. Hezbollah does not usually get involved in things not connected with Lebanon. It sees itself as some sort of a guardian of Lebanon.” Asked about the meeting convened by the UN Security Council over the current conflict on Monday, Ahmad said that this would not serve any useful purpose and would only end with a condemnation of Hamas.