Fourth phase in UP gets a sprinkling of terror jibe as farmers nurse their wounds

All eyes will be on Lakhimpur-Kheri where Ashish Mishra, the son of Union Minister of State for Home Ajay Kumar Mishra, allegedly crushed protesting farmers under the wheels of his SUV. The anger which subsided with Ashish’s arrest has flared up again after his release on bail, writes senior journalist Atul Chandra.

Last-minute voter outreach by political bigwigs for the fourth round of polling ended on Monday evening. Votes for 59 Assembly seats in nine districts of Rohilkhand, the Terai belt and Awadh region will be cast on February 23. The Awadh region districts which go to poll in this round include the state capital Lucknow and Rae Bareli, which was once the pocket borough of the Gandhi family. Rebel Congress MLA, Aditi Singh, is contesting from Rae Bareli seat on BJP ticket. Congress has fielded candidates in all five constituencies of Rae Bareli with little hope of their winning.

This is the first time that Congress general-secretary Priyanka Gandhi is single-handedly busy galvanising the cadre in the state. At stake is not just her future but also that of the party. On the last day of campaigning, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav, Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi and Aam Admi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal, each of them made an impassioned appeal to voters for support targeting each other. However, the poll narrative for this phase was set by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

In a speech at Hardoi, Modi linked the Samajwadi Party with terrorism and asked why bicycles were used by terrorists in the Ahmedabad serial blasts. Bicycle, incidentally, is the poll symbol of the SP which has emerged as the sole challenger to the BJP. Other BJP stalwarts like JP Nadda, Yogi Adityanath and Anurag Thakur kept up a concerted attack by accusing the SP of patronising terrorists, risking national security and the usual "abba jaan, bhaijaan" barbs to polarise the voters and overshadow other important issues like unemployment and inflation. Anurag Thakur even came up with an old photograph in which the father of one of the Ahmedabad blasts convicts is seen standing with Akhilesh.

The SP chief gave a sharp riposte to his detractors. Akhilesh hit back at the prime minister by saying that “an insult to bicycles is an insult to the nation” the vehicle is used by millions of poor in the country.

Trading of polarising barbs notwithstanding, all eyes will be on Lakhimpur-Kheri where Ashish Mishra, the son of Union Minister of State for Home Ajay Kumar Mishra, allegedly crushed protesting farmers under the wheels of his SUV. The anger which subsided with Ashish’s arrest has flared up again after his release on bail. The district falls in the Terai region, which is a sugarcane belt where the response of farmers holds the key.

Pilibhit, being part of the state’s Bareilly division, is in Rohilkhand region where most of the districts were covered in the second phase. It is also UP’s major sugarcane-growing district. Non-payment of dues to cane growers in these two districts could affect BJP’s poll prospects. Similar will be the case with Sitapur.

An interesting fight is on the cards in Lucknow where caste and community cards will play a role but the BJP can’t be assured of a clean sweep as it faces a resurgent SP. The constituency is unique as it has both Shia and Sunni sects with their separate political leanings. Shias have traditionally voted for the BJP, while Sunnis have opted for secular parties.

After the Yogi government cracked down on anti-CAA protesters there’s a strong dislike for Yogi Adityanath. So it was a rude shock for the community when a prominent Shia cleric, Maulana Kalbe Jawwad, issued an appeal for the BJP. Elsewhere in the district, the focus will be on Dalits, Vaishyas, Kayasthas, Khatris and Brahmins.

In the Thakur dominated constituency of Sarojininagar, for instance, the BJP has replaced Swati Singh, who was a minister in the Yogi government with the former joint director of Enforcement Directorate Rajeshwar Singh. The shuffle won’t hurt the party as the Congress candidate here is also a Thakur---Ripudaman Singh --- while the SP is betting on its former minister Abhishek Mishra. The division of Thakur votes could see the BJP candidate through.

Like in 2017, the opposition parties have put up a disjointed front making splitting of votes unavoidable. This is because each of them aspires to independently rule UP. Alliance with the Congress in the previous elections proved detrimental for the SP so the two didn’t join hands.

The BSP can’t go to bed with either the Congress or SP. That gives the BJP a big boost. Had it not been for the SP, which has become a rallying point for those disenchanted with the BJP these elections would have been a cakewalk for the ruling party.

In 2017 the BJP had won 51 of the 59 seats and four went into SP’s kitty. The BSP and Congress had to be content with only two seats.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are that of the writer, facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat)