Could the ceasefire efforts between Pak-Saudi affect India?

Experts are of the opinion that an improved relationship between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan might have an implication on India given the fact that Saudi Arabia’s strategic interests lie in improving ties between India and Pakistan rather than widening the rift. However, India’s relationship with Saudi Arabia is strong and India will continue to work to strengthen it, writes ETV Bharat's correspondent Chandrakala Choudhury.

New Delhi: Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are forging ahead to improve their strained relationship and experts opine that this could have an implication on India given the fact that Saudi Arabia’s strategic interests lie in improving ties between India and Pakistan rather than widening the rift.

In conversation with ETV Bharat, Professor Harsh V Pant, Director, Research, Observer Research Foundation, Delhi said, “If the relations between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan get reconcile, which was the aim of the Imran Khan’s visit to Saudi Arabia, then India can hope that Saudi’s can moderate Pakistani behaviour when it comes to India and using terrorism as an instrument of state policy.

"India would hope that as Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy has become pragmatic, Pakistan will follow suit and come to terms with India as a neighbour with whom it cannot compete anymore but has to manage its relationship. Therefore, the reconciliation efforts can help India in establishing diplomatic stability with Pakistan”, Professor Pant said.

He further said that India has a very important relationship with Saudi Arabia, which has evolved dramatically over the last few years.

"We have seen Saudi Arabia almost tilting in favour of India in recent years, which is quite unprecedented given the close relationship Saudi Arabia shares with Pakistan. It is quite natural that Pakistan has been jittery and angry that when it came to the Kashmir issue, Saudi Arabia did not help in the internationalization of the issue after India revoked Article 370. But India is an important partner for Saudi. As far as India is concerned, its relation with Saudi Arabia has been moving forward significantly”, he explained.

Last week, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan was on a three-day visit to Saudi Arabia-the traditionally a close ally to discuss and improve the strained relationship. Khan met the Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and discussed bilateral relations as well as regional and international issues of common interest.

Before Khan’s visit, Pakistan’s Army chief General Bajwa also visited Saudi Arabia. Both Khan and Bajwa’s visit indicates that the country is augmenting efforts to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia as Pakistan is financially dependent on Saudi Arabia.

Pakistan needs the continuation of Saudi oil and money to hold on to its fragile economy.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has been pushing for a dialogue between India and Pakistan to resolve all issues including Kashmir.

In fact, there has been speculation about UAE and Saudi Arabia playing a proactive role in reducing tensions between the two South Asian rivals since the 2019 Pulwama attack.

“As far as Saudi Arabia is concerned, they will try to push Pakistan to move on a reconciliation path with India. So whatever needs to be done in terms of lessening the rhetoric to the possible extent, lessening the terrorist attacks etc, Saudi will try to press upon Pakistan. And Pakistan, of course, is trying to get support moral, political and financial support from Saudi Arabia”, former ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar told ETV Bharat.

India’s relationship with Saudi Arabia is strong and India will continue to work to strengthen it. India has a good market for Saudi oil, investments and sovereign funds.

Notably, India, as a rising economy, is a very big market for the Gulf countries. India imports about 18% of its crude oil requirement and 30% of its LPG requirement from Saudi Arabia.

When asked if India have an advantage if Pakistan and Saudi Arabia reconciles, Sajjanhar said, “Definitely, India will have an advantage. India stands class apart from Pakistan because the only affinity between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is the Islamic factor. Otherwise, Pakistan is a liability for Saudi Arabia as they keep on asking for money and support.

"There is nothing much they can give. Therefore, India has a significant advantage and the military ties with Saudi Arabia and UAE are making inroads. Pakistan does not bring much to the table, while India does”, he reiterated.

Pakistan is currently financially broke and it cannot return its money to IMF. All other regional actors are leaving and China is not willing to give more.

Politically or be it economically, Pakistan does not seem to be getting better. And if the tension with India continues, then, Pakistan will have to spend all that much more in defence and buying armaments, which many a time the country does not pay for as it comes directly from China free of cost.

Therefore, I think everyone wants stable ties particularly now that Americans are leaving Afghanistan, which would be another area of tension and instability. Saudi Arabia would want Pakistan to keep things under control to avoid instability in the South Asia and Central Asia region, Sajjanhar added.