Why Trump will lose the 2020 US presidential election

In his prediction published in the New York Times earlier this week, Allan Lichtman of the American University said that based on the “Keys” model of presidential poll result prediction that he has developed, Trump will certainly lose. Another alumnus of American University, Robinder Sachdev, said that if the party in power has performed and has a positive score on some of his parameters, then that party will retain the White House. If the party has not performed, it will lose the White House, writes senior journalist Aroonim Bhuyan.

New Delhi: Despite Donald Trump’s bid to defer this year’s US presidential elections in the face of criticism of his handling the COVID-19 and his railing against mail-in voting on the grounds that it will produce “inaccurate” results, the fact of the matter is that he faces defeat, according to a leading American historian renowned for his accurate prediction of presidential polls over the last four decades.

In his prediction published in the New York Times earlier this week, Allan Lichtman of the American University, Washington DC, has said that based on the “Keys” model of presidential poll result prediction that he has developed, Trump will certainly lose.

Author of the book “The Keys to the White House”, Lichtman uses 13 historical factors for his “Keys” model that has successfully predicted most US presidential poll results since the 1980s, in contrast to many other opinion polls.

For example, the latest Financial Times poll tracker based on data from Real Clear Politics shows that Democrat candidate Joe Biden can win 308 electoral college votes out of 538 while Trump can manage only 113. The winning candidate needs to win 270 of the 538 votes.

Incumbent President Trump is claiming that such polls do not reflect the voices of the silent majority which are with him.

However, Lichtman, claims that, based on his “Keys” model, Trump faces certain defeat.

What is “Keys” model and how does it work?

The 13 historical factors on which the model is based are, midterm gains; no contest; incumbency; no third party; strong short-term economy; strong long-term economy; major policy change; no scandal; no foreign/military failure; foreign military success; no social unrest; charismatic incumbent; and uncharismatic challenger.

Each of the 13 keys is based on the binary statement: yes or no. If six or more of these keys are false, then the White House occupant is on his way out.

In the case of Trump versus Biden, according to Lichtman, there are seven keys that fall in the false category that are leading to the favour of the Democrat nominee: mid-term gains, strong short-term economy, strong long-term economy, no social unrest, no scandal, foreign/military success, and incumbent’s charisma.

So, how is Lichtman’s model more reliable than opinion polls?

The most important thing that he says is that campaigns for the presidential election do not matter, says Robinder Sachdev, founder member of the US India Political Action Committee.

“What he (Lichtman) says, his model tracks the governance of the party in power,” Sachdev, himself an alumnus of American University and who had interacted with the historian often, told ETV Bharat.

“If the party in power has performed and has a positive score on some of his parameters, then that party will retain the White House. If the party has not performed, it will lose the White House.”

Sachdev further explained that there are two key differentiators that Lichtman’s model offers.

“One is that he himself is a professor of history, American history and presidential history… What had been the trends in American history and American elections or American politics. So, he understands those trends as a professor of history, of American politics,” he said.

“Secondly, what he has done is he has been able to identify the key trends which might have impacted American presidential elections in the past, the present and the future. So, identifying the trends when the presidents did come to power, what were the trends prevailing then, I think he has been able to examine and then do a good analysis of that data which has gone in,” he added.

Sachdev also highlighted the fact that of the 13 parameters of Lichtman’s model, only one – strong short-term economy – is actually short-term, while the rest are all long-term.

Interestingly, Lichtman developed his model after coming in touch with Russian seismologist Vladimir Kellis-Borok around four decades back.

So, what is the connection between earthquakes and politics?

“The connection between earthquakes and politics, come to think of it, is very, very reasonable, very, very smart,” said Sachdev.

“What Lichtman’s model says is that if there is an earthquake, that is if certain parameters in society combine, then their collective force can cause an earthquake which means that if an earthquake happens, the White House falls.”

For those readers still having doubts, it will be interesting to note that Lichtman, who himself is a Democrat, had correctly predicted Trump’s triumph in 2016 despite all speculations to the contrary.

This is why the professor’s prediction for this year’s US presidential election needs to be taken seriously.