Why PM Modi's 'Abki Bar Trump Sarkar' slogan will not hit Indo-US ties under Biden

Experts in international relations opine that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's backing for a second Trump presidency in the past would not affect the bilateral relations between India and the US when Joe Biden takes the White House early next year, writes Krishnanand Tripathi, Deputy News Editor of ETV Bharat.

New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to invite US President Donald Trump to his Howdy Modi rally in Houston last year, where he used the slogan Abki Bar Trump Sarkar (another term for President Trump!), will not affect the bilateral relations when his Democratic rival Joe Biden takes the White House early next year, three top diplomats told ETV Bharat.

Some leaders of the country’s principal opposition party, the Indian National Congress, took a jibe at Prime Minister Modi for use of Abki Bar Trump Sarkar slogan at the Howdy Modi rally last year after several leading US news organisations called the election in favour of Joe Biden on Saturday.

Reacting to Joe Biden’s victory, senior BJP leader Ram Madhav dismissed the apprehensions that the close relations between the two leaders, Prime Minister Modi and President Trump will affect ties under Joe Biden.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not the only world leader who has to cope up with the change at the White House. Several other world leaders such as Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and some European leaders will have to adjust their foreign policies to adjust with the new administration.

Several top diplomats and foreign policy experts, however, reject the apprehension of a strained Indo-US relationship under Biden, saying both the US and India need each other.

“I think there is a bipartisan consensus, both parties, Republicans and Democrats want to build relations with India so they will work with whichever government is there in India,” says Meera Shankar who was India’s ambassador to the US during President Obama’s tenure.

Ambassador Rajiv Bhatia, who was India’s top diplomat in South Africa, Mexico, Myanmar and Kenya, says the personal chemistry between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump will not affect the bilateral relations under the new administration, as a convergence of interest will drive the future relations.

Bhatia says it was important for Prime Minister Modi to cultivate a relationship with President Trump as both the countries had some issues in their relations and Prime Minister Modi’s efforts to build relationships with President Trump paid-off well as America has been much more supportive during India’s border stand-off with China.

Ambassador Vishnu Prakash, a career diplomat and leading voice on foreign affairs, says we should not have a misgiving on that score as it is in the interest of both India and the US to forge, maintain and enhance relationships, particularly to face a common threat posed by an aggressive China.

Was difficult to win President Trump’s trust

Ambassador Meera Shankar says the Modi government initially faced difficulty in winning the trust of President Trump after he assumed office in January 2016 as Prime Minister Modi was perceived to be very close to his predecessor, President Barack Obama.

At the invitation of Prime Minister Modi, then US President Barack Obama attended the Republic Day celebrations in January 2015, the first ever US President to grace the occasion.

“If you go back to the early days of President Trump then we had difficulty in getting through to President Trump or getting time for a meeting or getting an invitation for a visit because President Trump felt that Prime Minister Modi had been too close to President Obama,” Meera Shankar told ETV Bharat.

Vishnu Prakash, who was India’s ambassador to South Korea and High Commissioner to Canada, says Indian diplomats will invest as much energy and effort in building relations with Mr Biden as the Modi government invested in building relations with the Trump administration.

“The simple thing is that whosoever is in power, you deal with him,” Vishnu Prakash told ETV Bharat.

Difficult relations with Democrats

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Houston rally was not the only issue in Modi government’s relations with the Democrats. Senior Democrat leaders, including Vice President-elect Kamala Harris, Democrat Congresswomen of Indian origin Pramila Jayapal and several other senior Democratic Party leaders, have been critical of the Modi government over the issues of human rights and restrictions in Jammu & Kashmir following the revocation of special status of the state under Indian constitution.

Last year, foreign minister S Jaishankar, who was in the US to attend the second India-US 2+2 ministerial, declined to attend a meeting with the members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee as they reportedly refused to drop Pramila Jayapal from the meeting. Chennai-born Pramila Jaypal is the first Indian-American woman to be elected in the House of Representatives.

The reason for Jaishankar’s refusal to attend the meeting was that Pramila Jaypal had co-sponsored a bipartisan motion in the US Congress that called on the Indian government to lift the restrictions imposed on Jammu and Kashmir following the revocation of its special status.

Kamala Harris, first Indian-American woman to win a senate seat and now Vice President-elect, and another senior democrat leader Elizabeth Warren criticised Jaishankar for refusing to attend the meeting which was to be attended by party colleague Pramila Jaypal.

However, S Jaishankar remained unfazed despite the criticism by the Democrats.

Common interests will drive future relations

Top diplomats contacted by ETV Bharat brushed aside the concerns that these developments will cast a shadow on the India-US relations under the new administration in the US.

“The Biden and company knew the Modi government very well when Mr Obama was President. People in politics and diplomacy are quite mature people, just as India needs America, America also needs India,” said Rajiv Bhatia.

Ambassador Vishnu Prakash says the US and India are natural partners and have the convergence of interest with increasing bilateral trade and security cooperation that will continue to drive the cooperation in future.

“Look at the region from Washington's perspective, the US has a difficult relationship with China, the US has found out what Pakistan is up to. There is a common threat factor from China. Other than Japan and India, which are the two major players in this region, the US does not have major allies in the region. So both from push and pull factors, there is a convergence of interest,” Vishnu Prakash told ETV Bharat.

“I believe that India would be a priority for the incoming administration as the US is for India,” he added.

No scope for personal grudges in diplomacy

Ambassador Meera Shankar, who was India’s second woman ambassador in the United States after Vijay Lakshmi Pandit and interacted with Joe Biden when he was Vice President during President Obama’s tenure, discounts the fears that the Democrats will not be friendly with India as the Modi government invested so much energy in cultivating relations with the Trump administration.

“He is not someone who takes things too personally as President Trump took everything very personally and he (Donald Trump) has a very personal style of administration,” Meera Shankar said in response to a question by ETV Bharat.

“I don't think that there will be any personal animus which he (Joe Biden) will hold against the Prime Minister. We will see very institutionalised functioning and it not be too personalised. He will allow the logic of the US interest to drive the relationship,” noted the diplomat.

Bipartisan approach is the way forward

Commenting on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to invite President Trump to his Houston rally, top diplomats like Meera Shankar sound a word of caution.

“I think it is desirable for India not to become an issue in the domestic politics of others. It gives us more options. And we don't want to become a source of controversy,” said Meera Shankar. “If there is consensus where both Democrats and Republicans are with India then tilting too much, either one way or the other, doesn't serve the country’s interest.”

Rajiv Bhatia also agrees that several Democrats were unhappy with the approach of getting too close to the Trump administration, which was understandable.

“But past is the past and everybody in politics decides to move on. Now the situation has changed,” noted the diplomat who also serves as a distinguished fellow at Mumbai based think tank the Gateway House.

“As you have seen, the Prime Minister immediately sent the message of congratulations and I am sure that in a few days the two leaders will also talk to each other,” he said.