What lessons do Haryana, Maha poll results hold for BJP?

Anti-incumbency sentiment has begun creeping into a section of voters in both the states over the incumbent government's inability to fulfil its promise of ushering 'Achhe Din' for all, writes Rajeev Ranjan.

Hyderabad: India’s GDP growth witnessed a seven-year slump of five percent during the April to June quarter. The ever-increasing food prices also led to a significant 10-month high in retail inflation in August. In May 2019, the rate of unemployment was at a 45-year-high of 6.1 percent.

Alike other parts of India, farm distress, rising food prices, and growing joblessness continued to remain the real issues confronting the people of Maharashtra and Haryana during the recently concluded assembly polls. Consequently, an anti-incumbency sentiment has begun creeping into a section of voters over the incumbent government's inability to fulfil its promise of ushering 'Achhe Din' for all.

To neutralize voters’ anger over such real issues, the ruling BJP heavily banked on defectors from the rival Congress-Nationalist Congress Party camp in Maharashtra and disunity among the anti-BJP parties in Haryana.

BJP also laid added emphasis on the nullification of Article 370 and the publication of the National Register of Citizens which aims to deport the (Muslim) infiltrators.

The saffron party furthered its voter appeasement tactic by orchestrating a "fierce retaliation" by the Indian Army on October 20 – exactly a day ahead of the voting – across the LoC with Pakistan, therefore playing the national security card.

The strategy worked, but not fully. Although the BJP- Shiv Sena alliance won 161 seats, BJP’s tally fell from 122 in November 2014 to 105 in 2019.

In Haryana, even though BJP emerged as the single largest party, it did fall short of the magic figure. Its tally fell from 47 in November 2014 to 40 this election.

The final results are sure to prompt BJP to tread with caution in raising national security and communally polarising issues in the upcoming state elections. Given the fact that most of the defectors fielded by it have lost, BJP will also be much more cautious in giving away party-symbol to the turn-coats in the coming elections. Jharkhand goes to poll in a few weeks from now and so does Delhi in February 2020.

While the state poll results call for some serious introspection by the BJP so far as its hyper-nationalistic and majoritarian politics is concerned, it does inject enthusiasm among the Opposition ranks.

In Maharashtra, the anti-BJP parties are down but not out. This is significant. In the national election held five months ago, NDA had a 51.3% vote share in Maharashtra and 58.3% in Haryana, leaving opposition parties a dispirited lot. But, they recovered quite fast, offering a tough fight to BJP. Though they will not be able to form the next govt in Maharashtra or Haryana, their performance indicates that they can outsmart BJP if they offer a united fight.

Congress’ impressive show in Haryana reaffirms that the Grand Old Party retains its appeal in all sections of society. Even as BJP branded Congress’ Chief Ministerial face Bhupinder Singh Hooda as a leader of the Jats, Congress managed to bag 31 seats. Playing the Jat versus non-Jat card to the hilt, BJP could not consolidate all non-Jat caste votes in most of the seats. Several non-Jat castes considered Congress a better option than BJP.

But more significantly, Congress managed a good show in Haryana even though the 'First Family' of the party largely stayed away from campaigning in the state. Sonia Gandhi was to address a rally in Mahendragarh in Haryana. But, she cancelled it at the last moment.

Former party president Rahul Gandhi addressed only two rallies in Haryana. Similarly, the former party president addressed only five rallies in Maharashtra. Party president Sonia Gandhi skipped Maharashtra altogether. Priyanka Gandhi - after becoming a national general secretary on 23 January - had campaigned extensively in the 2019 general elections. But, she too stayed away from campaigning in either of the two states.

Even as the state units of the party felt rudderless in absence of the Gandhis, the anti-BJP voters in both states reposed their trust in Congress and the regional parties ideologically opposed to BJP. Courtesy to these voters, Congress survived in Maharashtra and performed impressively in Haryana. This signals that the Grand Old Party can survive without the Gandhis playing a pro-active role in election campaigning.

On the flip-side, fall in the BJP's numbers in both states underlines the need of checking the over-exposure of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah in state elections. PM Modi addressed 16 rallies (nine in Maharashtra and seven in Haryana). BJP president and Home Minister Amit Shah addressed 16 rallies in Maharashtra and 12 in Haryana.

Its below-expectation performance in both states is sure to prompt BJP to revisit its unconventional decision in selecting the CMs based on counter-consolidation of the other castes against the dominant caste. Five years ago, BJP made Devendra Fadnavis, a non-Maratha, the CM of Maharashtra which has always been dominated by 31 %-strong Marathas. Even as several Maratha leaders defected to BJP and Shiv Sena just ahead of the poll, the Maratha voters remained loyal to their traditional favorite NCP and Congress.

Similarly, in a state dominated by Jats, BJP made Manohar Lal Khattar - a Punjabi - the CM in Nov 2014, and 30%-strong Jats vented their ire against BJP. They ensured the victory of the non-Jat candidates fielded by Congress and Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), and the defeat of Jat candidates fielded by BJP. State’s finance minister Captain Abhimanyu and Agriculture Minister OP Dhankad are among the BJP’s Jat candidates who lost due to counter-sentiments of Jats against BJP.

BJP's strategy to consolidate the non-dominating castes against the ‘one-upmanship’ of a single caste has not yielded the desired result.

Hence, it is set to be cautious particularly in Jharkhand where girijans comprise 26 % population. Playing the tribal versus non- tribal card in the 2014 election, BJP had made Raghubar Das (an OBC) the first no-tribal CM of the state.

Besides, the outcome of the assembly polls will enable Shiv Sena and NCP to retain their existing roles in national politics. As Sena has already started insisting on equitable distribution of power in the state, it will continue to be critical of BJP in national politics. The differences between BJP and Sena are set to become wider in the coming days, even as they form another coalition government in Maharashtra.

At another level, central agencies – which laid serious corruption and anti-national accusations against NCP leaders just ahead of the polling – will revisit their stand on corruption cases involving NCP leaders. With NCP raising its tally, the morale of NCP chief Sharad Pawar is high. Pawar’s stature in national politics naturally gets enhanced.

The mandate of these states will also influence BJP floor leaders in the Parliament when the winter session starts on November 18. The saffron strategists would be more conciliatory in approaching the non-NDA parties for support on key bills.

BJP’s below-expectation performance in both states indicates that the narrative has NOT fully shifted from cobbling together the winning number through social engineering to communal polarization and nationalist rhetoric.

BJP is sure to realize the limited receptiveness of nationalist rhetoric and communal polarisation and pay adequate attention to real issues like farm-distress, rising food prices and unemployment.

Clearly, the BJP brand of muscular nationalism - which targets Pakistan & amp; minorities within India – has NOT become the new national identity. So, if the anti-BJP parties engage in the new national identity - which is plural as opposed to singular Hindu nationalism of BJP, they surely stand the chance to defeat BJP.

Old Guards prove their mettle, once again!

Even if their parties are short of the numbers required to form the government, NCP chief Sharad Pawar (78) and Congress’ old warhorse Bhupinder Singh Hooda (72) are the men of the moment in their respective states.

Devastating BJP's plan of ushering in a post-Pawar era in Maharashtra after this election, NCP has won 56 seats, raising its tally by 15 seats.

Soon after his party’s impressive show, Pawar said, “People dislike the arrogance of power," alluding to BJP president Amit Shah's pre-poll statement wherein he had said, “If we open our door, all NCP leaders except Pawar would join BJP.”

Taking a dig at NCP leader who switched to BJP-Sena just ahead of the poll, Pawar said, “People also dislike the turncoats.”

Notably, many such defectors lost to the NCP’s candidates in NCP strongholds in western Maharashtra and Marathwada.

Pawar single-handedly led the Opposition campaign in Maharashtra, as Congress remained consumed by infighting and the lack of strong state leadership.

The former CM did not stop his speech in Satara even as it rained heavy, his white shirt soaked in rain-water. The video went viral on social media and main-stream media; becoming one of the defining images of the entire election campaign. Overlooking his advancing age and the swelling number of defection from the party ranks, Pawar muddled through, addressing multiple rallies. Consequently, he became the sole target of the ruling BJP.

The seasoned politician upturned the personal attacks against him to his advantage, saying, “Maharashtra is the land of Shiva Ji Maharaj. It will never bow before Delhi.”

Knowing that people disapprove of attacks below the belt, Pawar left it to the people of the state to respond when the incumbent CM Devendra Fadnavis mocked NCP over its septuagenarian campaigner.

Pawar also took full advantage of BJP’s attempts to garner votes in state election over national security and communally polarizing the issue of the scrapping of Article 370.

“These issues have little relevance in a state election where people are more concerned about real issues like joblessness and agri-crisis,” he said.

His efforts were not in vain. His NCP emerged as the senior alliance partner in the state for the first time, reducing the Congress to the fourth position in Maharashtra.

Unsurprisingly then, Pawar – after his party’s impressive show - thanked PM Modi, BJP president Amit Shah and CM Devendra Fadnavis for saying all that they had said against him during the campaign.

Pawar also hit back at defectors like his former party MP from Satara, Udayanraje Bhosale (a direct descendant of Shivaji Maharaj) who lost to NCP candidate in the parliamentary by-polls.

In Haryana, Congress' old warhorse and former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda is the obvious man of the moment. Nurturing serious differences with Rahul Gandhi, Hooda was sulking till Sonia Gandhi became party president once again. Hooda began another innings in the party when Sonia Gandhi made him the leader of Congress legislative party and chief of the election management committee.

Setting aside his earlier differences with newly-appointed state Congress President Kumari Selja, Hooda banked on his old relations in the state.

An evergreen friend, Hooda has always kept in touch with long-time cohorts, no matter where they were. In private conversations, Hooda always maintains, “One never knows when one may come in handy," a belief which he would be banking on now, as Congress is frantically trying to win over the support of JJP which has won 10 seats. In Hooda’s resurrection, Congress in Haryana gets a new lease of life as well.

But this augurs ill for the favorites of Rahul Gandhi in other states. Buoyed by Hooda spearheading a tough fight against BJP, old guards in other states – including Kamalnath in MP and Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan – will surely be emboldened in undermining Rahul Gandhi’s favorites Jytoraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot.

Warning sign for AAP in Delhi

The revival of Congress in adjoining Haryana is set to enthuse party workers in Delhi, much to the dismay of the ruling AAP.

AAP has always gained in Delhi at the cost of Congress

Failing to open its account in Delhi in the 2019 general election, AAP in Delhi has been treading extremely cautiously. Since then, Delhi CM and AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal has been on a course correction drive and has not once attacked PM Modi, taking cognizance of the strange sentiments among several Delhiites: ‘Modi for PM and Kejriwal for CM”.

Since then, the graph of AAP has been steadily on the rise in Delhi. Several pro-people steps by AAP govt like no charge for electricity for meter reading up to 200 units, reducing the water bills, muhalla clinics et al have been playing roles in raising the AAP graph.

However, the fact remains that AAP has always gained in Delhi mainly at the cost of Congress, as BJP continues to retain its traditional support base. After the recent death of Sheila Dixit, the Delhi unit of Congress has been rudderless. The Grand Old Party also lost the faith of the 20 %-strong Purvanchali poor (who have set up shops and homes on govt lands) and 14%-strong minorities, the two social sections which had voted for Congress in the 2019 general election.

After Sheila’s death and Rahul Gandhi’s resignation as party president, the two social sections turned skeptical of Congress and began gravitating towards AAP.

However, Congress' impressive show in adjoining Haryana has sent a positive vibe to both the social sections. As a matter of fact, these two sections keep shuttling between Congress and AAP, as they are willing to choose either to keep BJP out of power.

Deeply suspicious of BJP’s Smart City project, the poor Purvanchali fears that a BJP govt in Delhi would send them back to their native places in UP-Bihar. The minorities dislike BJP for its Hindutva plank.

Thus, Congress’ revival in Haryana - apart from enthusing Congress workers in Delhi – enables the party to lure the poor and the minorities away from AAP.