Status quo challenge in search of Sino-India solutions

Despite the hype around the second informal setting in another picturesque locale, the picture has been far from rosy for Sino-India ties. However, Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping can hopefully exercise the political will to bring back stability and maturity into the handling of thorny issues in ties, writes senior journalist Smita Sharma.

Hyderabad: With the Indian Army and Chinese PLA locked in an eyeball to eyeball stalemate in 1986 at Sumdorungchu, then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi undertook an ice-breaking visit to Beijing in 1988-a first by an Indian Prime Minister in 34 years. In talks with his host Premier Li Peng the two sides 'agreed to settle the boundary issue through peaceful and friendly consultation'.

The formal statement issued by China after the talks added that 'the two countries should actively develop the bilateral relations in other fields and create an atmosphere and conditions conducive to a reasonable settlement of the boundary issue.' This even as Beijing flagged concerns about 'activities against the motherland by some Chinese Tibetans in India.' It took seven years of negotiations to restore status quo and stabilise the situation in Sumdorungchu but Sino-India talks were back on track following Rajeev Gandhi’s historic visit.

Sumdorongchu Valley, located east of tri-junction with Bhutan is not far from Doklam, that witnessed the tense 73 days standoff between the two mighty Asian armies in 2017 that eventually paved the way for the first informal summit at Wuhan between PM Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping last year to reset bilateral ties.

From Sumdorungchu to Wuhan to now, as Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping meet in the coastal shores of historic Mamallapuram or Mahabalipuram amid rough optics and major irritants including trade deficits, Kashmir and relations with Pakistan, the challenge will be to arrest any further downside in ties with status quo a preferred option till contentious issues are resolved.

This is not easy but doable as was seen during the Wuhan summit that issued 'strategic guidance' to both armies to maintain peace and tranquillity, avoid aggressive patrolling tactics and follow the 2005 protocol on the border. There was a visible cooling down of the border face-offs following Wuhan. As the two sides hope to work towards new Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) as an outcome of the second informal summit, a senior government official underlined, "If there are matters that are not reconcilable in near future, because fundamentals need to be reconciled, at least we can ensure that matters don’t get worse and some status quo is maintained."

Despite the hype around the second informal setting in another picturesque locale, the picture has been far from rosy for Sino-India ties. The reorganisation of Jammu and Kashmir and abrogation of Article 370 cast a long shadow in the past few weeks. China not only raised the K bogey more sharply batting for its friend Pakistan but has questioned implications for Chinese occupied parts of PoK (Aksai Chin) despite the Modi government assuring repeatedly that the 'internal moves' in Kashmir do not in any way impact external boundaries.

India in a sharp response rejected the reference to Jammu and Kashmir in the joint statement issued by China and Pakistan after the visit of Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi on September 7 and "consistently expressed concerns to both China and Pakistan on the projects in the so-called China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is on the territory of India that has been illegally occupied by Pakistan since 1947".

Regardless of India’s objections, following visit of Imran Khan to Beijing on the eve of Xi’s travel to India the Chinese side 'reiterated that the Kashmir issue is a dispute left from history, and should be properly and peacefully resolved based on the UN charter, relevant UN Security Council resolutions and bilateral agreements’ as per the joint press release. The importance of CPEC as flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative was further underlined while Pakistan reaffirmed its support to One China policy calling protests in Hong Kong as Beijing’s 'internal affairs'.

Modi who has met Xi five times already since the Wuhan summit in different settings, rode back to power in May with a historic mandate. Xi Jinping today is one of the strongest leaders to lead the country on the path of the nationalist ‘Chinese dream’. While the two can exercise political will to bring back stability and maturity into the handling of thorny issues in ties, the appetite for big breakthroughs or resolution at the moment may not be the same as in Wuhan with Indian elections over and China focused on the Trump administration amid a trade war.

Leading foreign policy expert C Rajamohan in a recent article in The Indian Express points to the widening gap in the comprehensive national power of the two Asian giants driving the approach to reconcile differences. With China’s aggregate GDP of around $14 trillion, nearly five times larger than that of India ($2.8 trillion) and its annual defence spending at $250 billion four times larger than India, Rajamohan underlines, "This power imbalance translates into an unpleasant fact on the diplomatic front. That China is under no pressure to please India. Or, more precisely, it can afford to displease India — whether it is the question of blocking India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group or opposing India’s Kashmir move and taking it to the UNSC. That did not change at Wuhan nor will it alter in a big way at Chennai."

However, the trade deficit that leads to confrontation and conflict in Sino-India ties, can also pave way for competition and cooperation between the elephant and the dragon. Modi and Xi realise the importance of working together on similar if not identical positions when it comes to the World Trade Organisation and selective walking back from global trading arrangements by the United States.

According to an article penned by a Chinese diplomat Zeng Xyyong who served in the embassy in Delhi, in an apparent reference to the 1962 war, Deng Xiaoping who succeeded Chairman Mao told Rajeev Gandhi that "now was the moment to forget those unpleasant things and look to the future".

Zeng further added that during his reciprocal trip to Delhi in 1991, Premier Peng told late Prime Minister, P V Narasimha Rao that "China would not get involved in any dispute between India and Pakistan hoping that the issues could be resolved in a reasonable manner through peaceful consultation. "The apparent Li assurance remains only on paper with China-Pak axis stronger in the face of an American Indo-Pacific strategy that Beijing views suspiciously as a containment tool.

But hopefully, Modi and Xi will look at ways to carry forward the Wuhan spirit in Chennai and signal the willingness to not have any clash through miscalculation or misunderstanding.

Maintaining status quo of peace and tranquillity on the Line of Actual Control will be key while searching for resolution of the complicated boundary issue even as the pending meeting between the two Special Representatives is awaited.