Reduce health, livelihoods, agriculture crises of pandemic during and after lockdown

The 21-day lockdown is supposed to have a positive impact on health crisis and negative impact on economy, jobs and livelihoods including agriculture. Several measures have to be taken during this period to increase health infrastructure – test centres, testing kits, ventilators, hospital beds etc.

Hyderabad: There are two crises due to COVID-19. One is the health crisis and another one is the economic crisis.

The 21-day lockdown is supposed to have a positive impact on health crisis and negative impact on economy, jobs and livelihoods including agriculture.

It has to be recognized that both lives and livelihoods are important. We examine here the implications and measures to be taken during and after the 21-day lockdown period and also analyse whether the government measures on the economy and livelihoods are adequate.

Lockdown will help containment of COVID-19 spreading to community and reduce health crisis.

It started right before the virus reached several people. This also means people do not have immunity. One problem is that once lockdown is lifted, the virus may spread at an accelerating rate.

International experience also helps us in dealing with the crisis. South Korea’s experience is well documented. China will be a test case for what happens after lockdown lifts.

After lifting the lockdown, China is having new cases in recent days. This is a cause of concern for us. However, these 21-day lockdown period is useful for us as it has given us some time to put a plan in place and limit the number of infections in the next few weeks.

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Several measures have to be taken during this period to increase health infrastructure – test centres, testing kits, ventilators, hospital beds etc. WHO says to take care of COVID-19, three things are important – testing, testing and testing.

Technology can be used for the treatment of patients much more than before. We should not ostracize people who got positive with the virus.

Doctors, nurses, health workers have to be protected as they are the unsung heroes in this unprecedented situation.

As it may spread to rural areas soon, rural health practitioners (many of them may be unqualified) in the detection of symptoms and reporting them to relevant authorities.

These reports have to be collected fast so that we will come to know where the problem is much more severe. There will be a huge demand in health facilities at the state level during and after the 21-day period.

The governments have rightly allowed private sector also as government hospitals infrastructure is not enough.

Fortunately, government, corporate and private sector, civil society are coming together to improve the health infrastructure of the country.

Complete implementation or practising of physical or social distance is also difficult for many sections of the population.

We have been watching the pictures of migrant workers going back to villages from urban areas and not following social distance. Similarly, in places like Mumbai slums, 5 to 10 people stay in a small room.

It will be difficult to follow physical distance in the densely populated areas.

Turning to income and livelihoods of people, the Prime Minister has given an apology to the country for the inconvenience. It has to be recognized that lockdown may be important for reducing health crisis but there are enormous implications for the livelihoods of people.

Many economists and other analysts have indicated that we should not be extended lockdown as it leads to more hunger and livelihood related deaths which could be more than the coronavirus related deaths.

First, we look at implications for agriculture as a large number of workers and population are dependent on this sector.

This year, we have record foodgrains (292 million tonnes) and horticulture production. There were expectations before the pandemic that the forthcoming Rabi production would be a good crop. But, lockdown due to COVID-19 may disrupt some activities of agriculture and supply chains.

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The 21-day period and beyond can affect through several channels: input distribution, harvesting, transport hurdles, agricultural markets etc.

The Union home ministry has issued fresh guidelines on lockdown which exempted farmworkers in the fields and farming operations by farmers, agencies engaged in procurement of agricultural products including MSPs, mandis notified by the state governments, inter and intra-state movement of harvesting and sowing related machines and manufacturing, packaging units of fertilisers, pesticides and seeds, among others.

But, these guidelines are not being practised in several places in the country.

There are reports from several states of the closure of APMC (agricultural produce market committee) mandis, leaving farmers stuck with their harvests.

Some farmers are seeing a sharp decline in prices, halved in some cases, because logistical risks deter traders from procuring.

If things get worse, they may have to leave the standing crops on the fields.

In contrast, for consumers in cities, many perishables have seen a surge in prices.

Supply chain bottlenecks could result in substantial loss of produce, especially perishables.

On-farm operations have to be protected. The immediate and urgent focus of the government should be on post-harvest activities, wholesale and retail marketing, storage and transport.

At a time like this, government procurement under price support operations is crucial, for example, Telangana has explicitly issued guidelines for decentralized procurement of paddy with staggered times for different farmers to reduce crowds in village procurement centres.

Many states, such as Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, and Chattisgarh, already have the capacity to decentralize procurement at the village level.

States can do this via Self-help groups, primary agricultural credit cooperative societies, and even via functioning FPOs.

The government could explore leasing in unutilized capacity in warehouses and cold storages to extend support to farmers/FPOs who want to hold produce, linking them to warehouse receipts or pledge loans where there is demand.

Of course, one has to follow some guidelines for sanitizing storage, protective measures for those who work in these spaces. At the same time, those associated with harvesting and supply chains need to feel secure that they are protected -from the epidemic itself but also from the lockdown.

Read:One out of 10 infected are healthcare workers: WHO

The migrant workers going to villages need to be tested without alienating them. It is not difficult for the government to get food

and agricultural supply chains back on track. The costs of not doing so could be substantial.

The adverse impact of COVID-19 on informal workers and migrant workers. Lockdown was done without much homework and preparation for migrant workers. The government has announced Rs. 1.7 lakh crores (0.8% of GDP) for those affected by the 21-day lockdown.

The government may announce some measures for the MSME and corporate sector.

Many economists and others think this is too small as compared to the problem.

For example, an article by Nobel Prize economists Abhijit Banerji and Esther Duflo says that the government should have been much bolder with the social transfer schemes.

According to them, “what the government is offering now is small potatoes – at most a couple of thousands for a population

that is used to spending that much every few days. If the point is to stop them from going out to find work and thereby spreading the disease, the amounts probably need to be much larger”.

The point is that the government’s announced package is in the right direction but hugely inadequate.

The United States has enacted a package of $2 trillion and it is around 10% of GDP. The next stimulus of the US is expected to be around $1 trillion.

Together they account for 15% of US GDP. People accept now that stimulus should be twice as large as in 2008 great financial crisis. In other words, the US stimulus is almost 10 times to that of India.

Many countries in Europe are also spending. The lesson to India is clear. It has to spend much more maybe 3 to 4 times to the present stimulus.

If the lockdown continues further, it has to spend 7 to 8 lakh crores as stimulus to spend on health and loss of income and livelihoods.

For example, the finance minister has proposed a miserly Rs 500 a month for three months into women’s Jan Dhan accounts. We need Rs. 3,000 per month in the next three months as transfer to these accounts.

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In addition, food also has to be supplied to the poor informal workers, vulnerable groups, destitute and the needy. One has to forget about the fiscal deficit in the next three months.

To conclude, the 21-day lockdown period may give some time for us to plan for the period after lockdown to reduce health and livelihoods crises. We have to prepare the health infrastructure for the post-lockout period also as the pandemic may increase further.

The Chinese experience shows it can revive after the curfew is lifted which is a great concern for us.

Lives and livelihoods are equally important during and post-lockout period.

The government packages announced by the finance minister and the RBI may ameliorate some of the pain on jobs losses and incomes.

The government should have done better preparation on migrant workers and other daily wage labourers before the lockout as China prepared their people.

The package of 1.7 lakh crores announced by the finance minister may not be enough. We need four to five times to the present package to take care of formal and informal sectors.

Other countries like the US have announced much bigger packages. But, India faced these challenges before although it is an unprecedented situation for the country and a lot of uncertainty regarding the time and spread of COVID-19.

Let us hope we will overcome these health and livelihood crises sooner than later. We have beaten smallpox, plague and polio and prospered.

(S. Mahendra Dev, Vice-Chancellor, IGIDR)