'Post COVID-19 economic mess, India may see a V-shaped recovery'

Though a survey revealed that only 5 per cent of companies are looking to add more staff in the next three months, a leading economist told ETV Bharat's senior reporter Chandrakala Choudhury that India could display optimism as it might witness a V-shaped recovery once economic activities are restored.

New Delhi: Amid the impending economic gloom due to the spreading contagion and a nationwide lockdown, India's strong economic fundamentals would allow for a V-shaped growth implying a sharp recovery after a period of plummeting growth.

Striking an optimistic note, leading economist N R Bhanumurthy told ETV Bharat: "We have been hoping that after economic slowdown for almost two years, we could see a recovery in the current financial year but unfortunately due to COVID-19, we have not seen the recovery process."

"But at the same time, India can be optimistic, as going forward, the country would be in a better position once the economic activities are restored. Hiring depends on the kind of recoveries India will face which might see a V-shaped recovery soon. It is all conditional as to how strongly the Indian economy will revive post lockdown."

The economist who teaches at New Delhi's National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP) was speaking with special focus on the recently-released quarterly findings of the Manpower Group Employment Outlook Survey.

Underlining that the economic fundamentals of India appear to be strong in comparison to many other countries so the medium-term prospects are there, Bhanumurthy said there is a need to increase the share of the manufacturing sector in the overall GDP growth which currently stands at 15-16 per cent.

"There is a deliberate need to shift from the service sector to the manufacturing sector. By doing that, India will be in a position to provide jobs to a large number of youths shortly. This also coincides with the very idea of 'self reliant India'. The elasticity of employment concerning GDP in hiring is the manufacturing sector," he said.

Read:Most urban Indians hopeful of jobs return post lockdown: Survey

According to the survey that covered 695 employers across India, 5 per cent of the companies surveyed are still looking to hire new employees in the next three months. Despite the job market numbers being at a 15-year-low, the very fact that there are companies that are positive on hiring more employees is a heartwarming signal.

India still features in the top four among 44 nations, which projected a positive hiring trend. The other three countries are Japan, China and Taiwan respectively which have a net employment outlook of 11 per cent, 3 per cent, and 3 per cent from July to September respectively.

"The labour market needs to be flexible, whereas, at the moment, there is a situation where companies are laying off employees due to the sharp decline in the demand but with the recovery of economic activities, the hiring will start happening," said Bhanumurthy.

The survey points out that striking a 'wait and watch' stance, organizations, anticipating a demand surge, are gearing up for the post lockdown era.

The report says that new jobs will be generated by mining and construction, finance, insurance and real estate. While companies in north and south India seemed more positive about job creation, the strongest hiring pace is expected in medium-sized organisations followed by large and small companies.

Another striking finding of the survey is that employers in 35 of the 43 countries and territories surveyed expect to reduce payrolls in the period up to September-end, while payroll gains are expected in seven countries and a flat labour market is anticipated in one.

Read:India added 21 million jobs in May despite high unemployment rate