Pakistan's role between India China standoff

In this article, strategic analyst Jai K Verma explains that Pakistan pleased China by issuing the map which is against India as the forces of both India and China are in the position of confrontation on the borders. Imran Khan thought that China will subdue India and he will gain the domestic support but neither China nor Pakistan were expecting such a tough reaction from India and the amount of international support India is getting.

New Delhi: President Xi Jinping of China is in a hurry to make China a superpower. Chinese economic progress is amazing, now large number of countries are dependent on Chinese products and it became second-largest economy in the world after surpassing several established economies of the world.

China was unhappy with India as India refused to join Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which is the dream project of Jinping and passes through Asia, Africa, Europe, Middle East and Americas. China being an expansionist country has increased its influence manifold through BRI and also able to usurp Hambantota port in Sri Lanka, Gwadar in Pakistan just to name few.

Besides BRI two important parliamentarians of ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) attended the virtual swearing-in ceremony of Taiwanese president in May and in June President Trump called Prime Minister Modi and invited him to attend G-7 Summit and during telephonic conversation also discussed India China standoff. Again, in June Modi had a virtual summit with Scott Morrison Prime Minister of Australia. The relations between China and Australia are tense as the latter is charging China for the spread of coronavirus. China feels that India slowly but steadily sliding towards USA.

China after demonstrating its economic power also wanted to show its military might hence besides showing its strength in South China sea, threatening Taiwan, Vietnam and Japan it entered in Indian territories and also occupied some area with malafide intention of humiliating India. PLA forces encroached in Galwan valley and even after many commander level talks and discussions by Ajit Doval with his Chinese counterpart it was decided that the forces of both the countries would retreat to their original positions. Chinese retreated in some areas, but the disengagement was not complete, and China remained in control of some area where the Indian army was patrolling.

Meanwhile, Pakistan which cherishes deep-rooted animosity towards India and availed several favours from China also generated tension on India Pakistan borders. Pakistani troops starting shelling at several places where they also used heavy weapons. In June 2020 Border Security Force (BSF) shot down a Pakistani drone which was carrying arms and ammunition for the terrorists supported by Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). According to reports, there were about 150 ceasefire violations in June. Pakistan also made several attempts of infiltration of terrorists under the cover of heavy firing.

Meanwhile, on 4 August 2020 Prime Minister Imran Khan issued a new political map which showed the whole of J&K, Junagadh of Gujrat (India) as part of Pakistan. Imran Khan selected 4 August as it was one day before the first anniversary of defanging of article 370 from J&K. The defanging of article 370 finished the special status of Kashmir and the state was also divided into Ladakh and J&K both are directly ruled by the central government.

Imran government issued the map to satisfy the public of Pakistan which was very critical of the present government as it failed to take any drastic action against India when Article 370 was revoked. Islamabad projected that the present political map is a right response to India’s action of revoking of article 370. Imran Khan also mentioned that the new map which is approved by the cabinet would become part of school syllabus.

Pakistan’s foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi also appreciated the issue of new map and termed it as an “unprecedented step”. In a strongly worded small press release Ministry of External Affairs mentioned that “This is an exercise in political absurdity, laying untenable claims to territories in the Indian State of Gujarat and our Union Territories of Jammu & Kashmir and of Ladakh. These ridiculous assertions have neither legal validity nor international credibility.”

Pakistan wanted to carry out some major terrorist activity in Kashmir on or about 5 August but failed as Indian security forces have exterminated large number of terrorists including top commanders of Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Toiba, Ansar Ghazwatul and Hizbul Mujahideen under Operation “All-Out” and “Cordon and Search” operations. According to reports about 300 ISI trained terrorists are waiting for infiltration on India Pakistan border, however, they are not able to infiltrate because of strong vigil of Indian security forces.

Pakistan also pleased China by issuing the map which is against India as the forces of both India and China are in the position of confrontation on the borders. On July 15/16 forces of both the countries fought in which 20 Indian Soldiers including a Colonel were martyred. Though China had not revealed the figures but according to knowledgeable sources PLA lost more than 40 soldiers including an officer.

Pakistan copied Nepal as the Himalayan kingdom also issued a map on behest of China in which Indian territories of Limpiadhura, Lipulek, and Kalapani were shown as part of Nepal. Islamabad has also not exhibited Shaksgam Valley and Aksai Chin in the map as these areas are occupied by China.

However, Islamabad should realise that it is passing through an economic crisis and it is surviving on the loans and aid given by Saudi Arabia, UAE, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and China. The loan sanctioned by IMF is in difficulty as Pakistan is in ‘grey list’ of Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and it is asserting to put it in ‘black-list’ if it will not stop assisting and abetting terrorist outfits.

China is an expansionist country and if Pakistan fails in repaying the loan, China may occupy its immovable assets which may include Gwadar seaport, mineral resources of Balochistan and arable land of Gilgit and Baltistan.

China’s efforts to intimidate India failed, and Delhi made it clear that Beijing must return to the original position of April 2020. India not only deployed its military, but Air Force planes were also stationed at forwards areas. France on India’s request delivered five Rafale fighter planes before schedule to India. Several countries including USA, Vietnam, Japan, Australia, U.K. and Taiwan extended their support to India. Hence China will retreat although it may take some more time before complete retrieval. The analysts also claim that President Xi Jinping is facing extreme dissension in the country and he attacked India to divert the public attention from day to day problems.

In the beginning, Imran Khan thought that China will subdue India and he will gain the domestic support but neither China nor Pakistan were expecting such a tough reaction from India and the amount of international support India is getting. Now it is more or less certain that China will not go for an all-out war and both China and India would withdraw their forces.

Pakistan failed to denounce India internationally when Article 370 was revoked hence Islamabad should try to control internal dissensions in the country and should stop meddling in internal affairs of India and Afghanistan. There are several secessionist outfits in Balochistan and recently Baloch and Sindhi nationalists have joined hands. Hence instead of siding China against India, Pakistan should improve its economic and law and order situation.

(Article By: Jai K Verma, a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses)