Hyderabad: On 13th August, US President Donald Trump announced an agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. According to a joint statement issued after the meeting, termed “historic” and the “accord of the century”, Israel would “suspend its declaration of sovereignty over the areas outlined in the peace vision”, both countries will establish diplomatic relations, both will cooperate in combating the virus through the development of the vaccine, Muslim pilgrims will be allowed to visit Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa mosque for religious purposes, and UAE and USA will work together for the strategic agenda for the Middle East.
This agreement, brokered by Donald Trump and negotiated between the Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and UAE Crown Prince Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, follows the hectic deliberations between the two sides after their initial meeting in the White House during a reception on 28th January this year when Trump presented his “Vision of Peace” document.
Within the next three weeks, the parties will meet to sign various agreements on investment, tourism, security, aviation, energy, healthcare, cultural exchange, environment, technology etc. However, U.A.E. has made it abundantly clear that it will not establish its embassy in Jerusalem till the Palestine- Israel issues are decided. On his part, Netanyahu claimed that he has agreed only to “delay” his expansion plan in the West bank. This seems to be a cautious attempt on part of both leaders to mitigate the criticism from their respective domestic constituencies. Events in the recent past were already pointing out towards the discerning a more flexible approach by the Gulf nations towards Israel.
Netanyahu’s visit to Oman last year, U.A.E.’s back of the stage cooperation with Israel during the last two decades through intelligence sharing to roll back the influence of Iran, their common enemy, in the region, Qatar’s keenness to have intelligence inputs from Israel in view of the former’s magnum opus- the FIFA cup soccer, the fatigue of the donor countries over the Palestinian cause, acknowledgement of Israel’s right to exist as a nation by the Saudi Crown Prince Salman and the permission of Israeli businessmen to visit the kingdom and the difference of opinion among the Muslim nations over the futility of prolonging boycott of Israel-all these were driving the Gulf nations slowly towards a rapprochement with the Jewish state.
Reactions to the deal from other nations have been, by and large, along the lines of their declared foreign policies. The three parties, involved in the deal, were obviously jubilant though the rightist groups of Israeli settlers have accused Netanyahu of deceiving them. Saudi Arabia, the biggest of the GCC countries, is yet to give any official reaction. Probably it is waiting for and assessing the relations of other Gulf countries. However, it is highly unlikely to denounce the deal given its close relationship to USA and UAE both. Qatar and Bahrain have welcomed the deal.
While Kuwait will, due to its firm support to Palestine, take some more time to firm up a reaction, Omen has backed the agreement. Egypt and Jordan, who already have diplomatic relations with Israel, have naturally backed the deal. The Muslim world is clearly divided on the issue. While Palestine has expectedly “rejected and denounced’ the deal, to Hamas it ”serves the Zionist narrative” and Iran has called it “strategic stupidity” and Turkey threatened to rethink on diplomatic relations with U.A.E. calling its action “hypocritical”. Malaysia terms it adding “fuel to fire” but Indonesia is yet to react officially. Pakistan’s case is curious. Caught between the rock and the hard place, it said that it was analysing the deal which will have “far-reaching implications”. India and China, both have welcomed the deal. Obviously, the major western countries have welcomed the deal.
Now, who gets what from the deal? First, the United States- with the tag of peace broker firmly fixed on his chest from the deals on Afghanistan-Taliban and now Israel- Emirates, Trump can go the presidential elections with better chances. The Israeli lobby, which dominates the economy of the U.S., will come in the overdrive mode for him. Who knows the two parties might get a Nobel Peace Prize like the Camp David Accord in 1978 and the big- mouth Trump can himself be a claimant for it. UAE and its neighbours will also have a lesser headache in dealing with Israel.
It also suits the Emirati desire to emerge as a “Middle Power” in the region and carve its own foreign policy free from Saudi influence (which was evident from UAE’s decision to withdraw its forces from Yemen unlike Saudi Arabia). Saudi Arabia and Oman will steadily, albeit slowly, come along. With its fast-depleting oil reserves ( which will, in any case, become redundant once clean energy alternatives become more popular), The Kingdom needs to utilise its vast landmass to sustain economic progress. Oman, having negligible oil reserves compared to other GCC countries but with the second largest in area in the Gulf after Saudi Arabia, also needs to utilise its land more productively. Here Israel, with its expertise in turning the barren deserts in to agricultural fields, can help these nations.
Then Israel’s prowess in intelligence network and defence production can assure the Gulf nations of a successful pre-emption or resistance of any possible Iranian assault. Palestine is obviously a loser and will have to get contented that no more land will be grabbed by Israel if the deal sustains. With the switching over to the other side by the Emirates, which is likely to trigger a domino effect, it will be difficult for Palestine to find more prospective donors. With the possible support of the deal by the undecided members of the Muslim world, Turkey will find lesser friends among the Ummah. Iran will see it surrounded by the not so friendly neighbours like Iraq, the Gulf nations, Afghanistan and an unpredictable friend like Pakistan.
Pakistan is fraught with two equally bad alternatives in this situation. Though Saudi Arabia rules the Muslim world religiously and economically, Pakistan has been aspiring to assume the Muslim political leadership in view of it being the only Muslim nuclear power. In the current scenario of the division of Muslim countries on the deal, if Pakistan supports the agreement, it will be alienated from its allies like Turkey, Malaysia and Iran and with is the aspiration to lead the Muslim world will dissipate in the thin air. On the other hand, if Pakistan opposes the deal, its already strained relations with UAE and Saudi Arabia (who have discontinued the loan and credit facility for oil import) will take a further hit.
The largest number of Pakistani non-residents has been in the Saudi Arabia and UAE, working and sending remittances to enrich the depleted Foreign Exchange reserves of Pakistan. This will bankrupt Pakistan and China too (which has welcomed the deal) will not find it prudent to pump in more loans to its poor “all-weather friend”. Other Muslim countries have only peripheral influence.
China, due to its large investment in the Gulf, will cautiously pursue its economic policies unless it is compelled to choose between the two sides-Iran or Gulf. As regards India, we should be happy that now we wouldn’t have to painfully convince the Arabs anymore that our relations with them are de-hyphenated from our relations with Israel. Our growing proximity with Saudi Arabia and UAE and excellent relations with Israel can run friction-free side by side. Our moral and political support for Palestine can still continue.
Nevertheless, a clearer picture will emerge in the near future which will shape the new geo-political equations not only in the region but will also cast its influence globally.
