Global air travel expected to not recover before 2024: IATA

Global air traffic will not return to pre-coronavirus levels until at least 2024, a year later than previously anticipated, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said. One of the reasons cited by the IATA for the "more pessimistic" outlook is the slow virus containment in the US and developing economies.

New Delhi: The International Air Transport Association (IATA) on Tuesday warned that the recovery in traffic has been slower than expected due to sharp spike in cases in many countries, reduced corporate travel and weak consumer confidence.

The IATA said, "Global air travel is recovering more slowly than expected and will take until 2024 to return to pre-pandemic levels, the trade association for the airline industry said Tuesday. The International Air Transport Association pushed back its prediction by one year due to the slow containment of the outbreak in the US and developing countries."

"The recovery in short-haul travel is still expected to happen faster than for long haul travel. As a result, passenger numbers will recover faster than traffic measured in RPKs. Recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels, however, will also slide by a year from 2022 to 2023," officials said.

"For 2020, global passenger numbers (enplanements) are expected to decline by 55% compared to 2019, worsened from the April forecast of 46%," officials said.

"The more pessimistic recovery outlook is based on a number of recent trends: slow virus containment in the US and developing economies; reduced corporate travel as video conferencing appears to have made significant inroads as a substitute for in-person meetings and weak consumer confidence," IATA said.

"Scientific advances in fighting COVID-19 including the development of a successful vaccine could allow a faster recovery. However, at present there appears to be more downside risk than upside to the baseline forecast," the IATA stressed.

According to Alexandre de Juniac, IATA's Director General and CEO, international traffic account for two-thirds of global air travel in normal times.

"Domestic traffic improvements notwithstanding, international traffic, which in normal times accounts for close to two-thirds of global air travel, remains virtually non-existent. Most countries are still closed to international arrivals or have imposed quarantines, that have the same effect as an outright lockdown, de Juniac said.

"Summer, which is our industry's busiest season, is passing by rapidly; with little chance for an upswing in international air travel unless governments move quickly and decisively to find alternatives to border closures, confidence-destroying stop-start re-openings and demand-killing quarantine," de Juniac added.