'Festive laxity could lead to spike in COVID-19 cases'

The onset of winter and festive laxity could lead to a spurt in cases of the coronavirus disease, senior health expert Dr Tamorish Kole said in an interview to ETV Bharat. He also cautioned that there is a maximum possibility that spike in cases in coming days can push back India to level one.

New Delhi: A day after a high powered government panel predicted of a possible 26 lakh new COVID-19 cases in the coming month, senior health expert Dr Tamorish Kole said this situation is inevitable if people do not take precautions

In an exclusive interview to ETV Bharat, Kole said, "This prediction might come true as we know that in winter the spread of the virus may be more and being the festive season, there are chances that people will come in proximity to each other. So, there is a high chance of spreading the virus."

The situation in Kerala is a glaring example. "When Onam was celebrated in Kerala, the number of COVID cases rose rapidly," said Dr Kole who is also the president of the Asian Society for Emergency Medicine.

In fact, the Kerala government has also accepted that the state has been witnessing a huge spike in COVID cases after the festive season.

Referring to the coming festivities, Dr Kole said that the virus is spreading through 5 Ps.

"Virus will spread through people in prolonged poor ventilated protection free proximity. If you see the coming festive season, there is a high chance that this may happen," said Dr Kole.

A 10-member committee of the Central government headed by Niti Aayog member Dr VK Paul through a study "Progression of the COVID-19 pandemic in India: Prognosis and Lockdown impacts" has warned that any laxity during festivals or winter will lead to an increase of at least 26 lakh COVID-19 cases within a month.

The study was based on a mathematical model to map the progression of the infectious disease in across India.

Referring to an order issued by the Calcutta High Court today, Dr Kole said that people should celebrate the festival but with precautions.

Calcutta HC issued an order that Puja pandals should be crowd-free. "Virus will spread through natural paths if we give them chance...Use of masks and maintaining social distancing is must," added Dr Kole.

He also cautioned that there is a maximum possibility that spike in cases in coming days can push back India to level one.

"If you see other diseases, they spread in huge number during winter. The coming festivals could prove to be a super spreader if we don't take maximum precautions because in winter there is a chance of droplets transmission," said Dr Kole.

He said that deteriorating condition may also put a huge burden on India's health system.

Talking on the COVID-19 vaccine, Dr Kole said that vaccine may be available by February next year.

"All the important vaccines are in the final stage. However, for a country like India real challenge will be vaccines procurement and distribution," said Dr Kole.

It may be mentioned here that a National Expert Group on Vaccine Administration for COVID-19 has already been discussing the strategy for vaccine production and distribution process.