Delhi poll results and its plausible fallout on anti-CAA-NRC protests

In this article Senior journalist, Sanjay Kapoor reflects on the recently concluded Delhi assembly elections and its probable result while discussing the future of anti-CAA, NRC protests in the wake of BJP coming to power.

Hyderabad:There is plenty that is riding on the way Delhi votes. If exit polls prove to be correct in terms of the identity of the ultimate victor Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Admi Party (AAP), and its margin of win, then Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government at the centre could be forced to introspect on whether this is the time to take off its gloves and push for the contentious Citizenship (Amendment) act (CAA) and setting up of the National Register of Citizens (NRC), which has created such a furore and public protests all over the country.

Before the BJP inserted itself in the Delhi elections aggressively, a win for the AAP seemed to be a foregone conclusion. Kejriwal was ideologically agnostic and appealed to the supporters of Narendra Modi and the BJP as he promised a better capital. In the five years that he had been in power, he had managed to deliver on some of the key promises- if not all- to cut down on corruption as well as give free power and water to the citizens of Delhi. He had also set up Mohalla clinics and compelled the private hospitals and others to provide free treatment. People even had heart surgeries in the capital for free.

BJP was somnolent for the better part of the campaign till it woke up about a fortnight before the day of polling, fielded its pugnacious former party chief and country’s home minister, Amit Shah. It was, by and large, the most toxic campaign the country had seen for an election that was undeserving for so much vitriol. Pegging BJP’s campaign on the protests by the women of Shaheen Bagh against CAA and NRC, Shah demanded from his followers that they should press the button of the voting machine so hard that it could be felt in Shaheen Bagh too!

Taking a cue from his manifest belligerence towards the protestors that were causing inconvenience to people living in nearby areas, a central minister Anurag Thakur led the shouting of slogans against so-called traitors demanding that they should be shot. Another BJP MP Pravesh Verma claimed that the protestors would enter houses of the Hindus and rape them. He was unmindful of the fact that these were women who were involved in the sit-in. Encouraged by this violent talk, two supporters of the BJP got near Shaheen Bagh and Jamia Nagar and fired bullets. Mercifully no one was killed.

The purpose of this hate-filled talk was to polarise the voters on communal lines. This narrative had worked for the BJP on many occasions and the party leadership and strategists felt that there was no reason why it should not. After all, there was enough provocation for many not nuanced in CAA-NRC protests to resent the blocking of the roads. BJP managed to commandeer its own followers who threatened to uproot the hapless women protestors who were sitting in extreme cold to catch the attention of the government on the issues that were troubling them.

Besides Shaheen Bagh, the BJP rubbished AAP’s claims that it had done much for the capital. Instead, it was called an anarchist and someone who could not be trusted with governance.

Congress, which put up a decent performance in the parliament elections in 2019 coming second in most of the seven constituencies, also trashed AAP’s claims about doing some good work in the capital. Instead, Congress shared the work their government under late Sheila Dikshit had done, which put AAP’s work to shade.

Congress, though, was not seen to be in a serious position to challenge the BJP and slowly got squeezed in the two narratives- nationalism versus localism.

Nearly all the surveys show that the AAP has won by a big margin and the BJP may get a few seats. Congress is largely seen as wooden spooners- coming last.

BJP is unfazed by these exit polls and claims that they are getting 48 seats and will form the government in a house of 70 seats. Their assertions are being taken disbelievingly seriously after reports began to emerge that the Election Commission has not released the final figures of voter turnout after the polling got over on February 8. At that time, the figure was 57 percent. A day later, when the AAP and other parties began to wonder about the delay in declaration of the vote count, the ECI announced that the total votes polled were some 62 odd percent- 5 percent less than the 2015 assembly elections. Sceptics amongst the opposition leaders claimed that the ECI had changed the voter turnout from 50 percent at 5 pm to 62 percent at 6 pm. They feared that all the manipulation of the EVM- always in a miasma of doubt- would have taken place in the last two hours.

If the BJP does better than expected- then the gains would be attributed by AAP and Congress to EVM. It could also lead to bigger protests in the capital. If BJP gets only a few seats then this noise over EVM fixing would go away.

There is a view that BJP will not sit idly even after it loses Delhi. It will go about striking hard on the CAA-NRC protests. The police that is under the central government in Delhi has already sought permission to use stadiums to arrest protestors. This means that after the polls- BJP’s confrontation with the opposition parties and the CAA protestors will worsen.

In other words - a lot rides on these elections.