New Delhi:Military and strategic experts believe that the recent India-China border tension is a carefully calculated move by the Chinese government to take advantage of a global war against the novel coronavirus, and domestic issues in the USA to change status quo at the border in its favour. It is a stark reminder of the Chinese strategy nearly six decades ago when it attacked India during the winter of 1962 by taking advantage of the Cuban Missile Crisis, which brought the two superpowers to the brink of a nuclear exchange.
The Cuban crisis, which was building up for quite some time in 1962, exploded into a full-fledged standoff between the two superpowers on October 16.
Four days later on October 20, 1962, China attacked India when the superpowers – the US and the erstwhile USSR – were engaged in an unprecedented crisis over the deployment of Soviet missiles in Cuba and were not in a position to intervene in India-China war of 1962.
The then US President John F. Kennedy ordered a naval blockade of Cuba on October 22, 1962, and which was eventually lifted on November 21, 1962, following intense negotiation between the two powers.
China started its war against India at about the same time, on October 20, 1962, and unilaterally declared a ceasefire in November 1962 after achieving its military objectives.
Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai announced the unilateral ceasefire on October 19, 1962, that came into effect from November 21, 1962, when the US also formally ended its naval blockade of Cuba.
“The timing is very important. This incursion and the stand-off, and the casualties that have been inflicted, these are not accidental nor is it a local thing,” said ambassador Vishnu Prakash, a New Delhi based former diplomat who was India’s Consul General in Shanghai.
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“It is clearly a well-coordinated move because of its scale, its timing and several other factors. It certainly cannot happen without the nod from the very top,” Ambassador Vishnu Prakash told ETV Bharat.
The former diplomat, who was India’s ambassador to South Korea and High Commissioner to Canada, points out China’s transgressions with almost all of its neighbours since the outbreak of the Covid-19 global pandemic early this year.
Lt General (retd) Deependra Singh Hooda, who was responsible for safeguarding the country's border with China in Ladakh region as the GOC of the Indian army's Northern Command, says every country looks at the timing when it plans something and Chinese saw the Covid-19 crisis as an opportune time.
“Everybody looks at the timing whenever they plan something and this is a large significant action, so they will certainly look at what are the regional and international conditions that they can exploit,” DS Hooda told ETV Bharat.
“They saw India was engaged in fighting the Coronavirus and its economic issues, so they would have thought that it was an opportune moment,” General Hooda added.
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Dr. Rajeswari Rajagopalan, a Distinguished Fellow and Head of the Nuclear and Space Policy Initiative at India’s leading think tank Observer Research Foundation (ORF), says China has been building its military and strategic capabilities in the last 5-6 years, and it was looking at an opportunity to change the status quo with its neighbours.
“Clearly, they have been planning this, it has not come about as an overnight development,” Rajeswari Rajagopalan told ETV Bharat.
She said China was trying to address the lack of operational experience in its military by conducting joint exercises involving both its army and air force, particularly in the high altitude areas.