'COVID-19: Lockdown was successful in breaking the chain of transmission'

The study of as many as five mathematical models suggests that the lockdown was able to break the chain of transmission of the disease. The study says that thousands of deaths and lakhs of cases were avoided due to the lockdown.

New Delhi: As many as five mathematical models, studying COVID-19 trend, on Friday indicate that continuous lockdown was able to break the chain of transmission of the pandemic.

Pravin Srivastava, secretary in the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementations (MoSPI), said that the lockdown was able to avert 14 to 29 lakh additional cases and 37,000 to 78,000 deaths across the country due to COVID-19, the vaccine for which is yet to be made.

The central government has taken the mathematical model of five groups including Boston Consulting Group (BCG), Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI), two independent groups and Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) to mark the COVID-9 trend.

Quoting BCG group analysis, Srivastava said that 1.2 to 2.1 lakh lives saved and 36-70,000 cases averted. He said that as per PHFI analysis, more than 78183 deaths and lakhs of cases were avoided due to the lockdown.

"Two independent analysis and analysis from MoSPI also indicated that a huge number of deaths and active COVID-19 cases were averted due to the lockdown," Srivastava said.

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As on Friday, India registered a total of 118447 COVID-19 cases with 66330 still active. India registered 3583 deaths till date and 48534 people were also cured as of now.

With 3334 cured cases in the last 24 hours, India's COVID-19 recovery rate now stands at 41 per cent.

The mortality rate has also come down to 3.02 per cent from 3.13 per cent.

"We are now concentrating on states registering the highest number of positive cases," said Lav Agarwal, joint secretary in the Health Ministry.

VK Paul, chairman of the empowered group 1 on Covid-19 said that cases are increasing but the lockdown was able to break the chain of transmission of the disease.

"Before lockdown COVID-19 cases were increasing at 22 per cent which has come down to 5 per cent following lockdown," he said, adding that "doubling days has also increased from 3.4 days to 13.3 days."

He said that COVID-19 is now confirmed to certain areas. "Pandemic has been confined and we are now ready for the future," said Paul.

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He said that India has shown a collaborated approach in its fight against COVID-19 with fraternity from medical, Ayush, nurses and volunteers.

"In just two months we have got 109 domestic companies who can manufacture PPEs, N95 masks, and other medical equipment," Paul said.

The time the nation got for preparedness due to lockdown has been utilised very well. "We can now say with confidence that we will be able to face the challenge and surmount it," said Paul.

He also said that more than 10 crore people have downloaded Aarogya Setu app.

Paul also cautioned that people need to be very cautious.

"If we relax, the virus will spread. We need to adopt practice such as wearing masks, maintain social-distancing, washing of hands etc," Paul added.

Referring to the mathematical model to get the trend of the disease, Paul informed that models based on data drawn from primary and secondary sources.

There were different types of epidemic models including stochastic, deterministic and reproduction number.

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Talking on the current active COVID-19 cases, Paul said that around 80 per cent of cases prevail in 5 states including Maharastra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Delhi and Madhya Pradesh.

"Over 90 per cent cases prevail in 10 states including Maharastra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar and Karnataka," said Paul.

Significantly, over 70 per cent of cases are confirmed in 10 cities including Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Thane, Pune, Indore, Kolkata, Hyderabad and Aurangabad.

"At the same time COVID-19 deaths are concentrated in a few states and cities," he said.

Around 95 per cent deaths are reported in 10 states including Maharastra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.

Paul also said that Indian scientists and ICMR are doing a trial on medicine to get Covid-19 vaccine.

"Five companies are working together to get a vaccine. We have also started the WHO solidarity trial to get the vaccine. Trial on Favipiravir has already been completed," Paul said.

It is to be mentioned here that the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) has already started trials on ACHQ, Favipiravir and MW.

The organisation will be doing a trial on seven more drugs.

Paul said that people now have to maintain a balance between virus and normal life.

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"We can't continue lockdown for a long time. So, we have to maintain a balance between virus and normal life. As the virus has its own trend, real trajectory depends on the behaviour of the society," Paul said.

He said that India, so far, has able to contain the disease in the rural areas.

Referring to reports that COVID-19 cases will come to zero by May 15, Paul said that no one has ever said that the number of cases would go down to zero on a particular date.

"There has been a misunderstanding, which needs to be corrected. For the misunderstanding, I feel sorry and I apologise," said Paul.

Meanwhile, stating that complete and timely data is the basis for effective COVID-19 response, WHO has introduced a technical package for Rapid Mortality Surveillance to improve tracking and reporting of deaths.

"All countries must take note and implement this rapid mortality surveillance, to inform their own health system responses and address gaps," said Soumya Swaminathan, WHO's chief scientist.

In another development, cabinet secretary Rajiv Gauba has asked ICMR to partner with various science departments like department of science and technology (DST), Department of Biotechnology (DBT), and council of scientific and industrial research (CSIR) for evaluating the antiviral properties of investigational products and repurposed drugs etc.