Congress and NCP – Were they really rulers for 60 years?

As the Maharashtra elections are approaching the political scenario of the state is becoming interesting day by day. This article explores the role of Congress and NCP as the Opposition parties, highlighting their chances and their lost opportunities.

Hyderabad: The issue of cutting down of trees in Mumbai's Aarey forest is in the headlines of late. On Friday, Bombay High Court allowed the felling of more than 2500 trees to pave way for the car shed of the proposed Metro rail project. Soon, environmentalists and others were up in the arms. There was a wave of general anger against Devendra Fadnavis, who has staunchly advocated this project, in the media and public at large. Many protests happened. But all by the small NGOs. All this while, the main opposition parties, namely, Congress and NCP remained silent spectators. Barring the protests of one or two individual MLAs, the parties did not do anything about the issue beyond making some noise in press conferences or on social media.

For the last year, the farmers' organisations are raising the issue of a crop insurance scam in the state. According to them a few private insurance companies have paid paltry sums as insurance claims to farmers and have pocketed the rest of the hundreds of crores of rupees from premium paid. Despite this being an issue concerning lacs of farmers, no Opposition party has taken it up as its main issue. Hence, here again, a young activist like Rajan Kshirsagar and small parties like CPI were seen leading the agitations.

Real Opposition

These are just two examples out of many. On these and other occasions, Congress and NCP ought to have been leading from the front. On the contrary, they were seen going into hibernation.

Interestingly, in both the incidents mentioned above, Shiv Sena, who is part of the BJP-led government in the state, was found agitating, though not with usual force. And, when after the High Court finally gave the nod to felling of the trees, not just media persons, but also the Congress spokesman was seen asking where is Aditya Thackeray ( who had earlier said that he will not allow any tree cutting in Aarey), forgetting the fact that Congress is also expected to play some role in it.

This sums up the political scenario in Maharashtra today. Shiv Sena remained the most ardent critic of the state and central government on most of the issues. At times, Saamana, Shiv Sena's mouthpiece, raised doubts about the Balakot, suspected some corruption in Rafale deal and criticised BJP and Devendra Fadnavis for failing to prevent the suicides of farmers. Compared to this Congress and NCP were far too subdued and ended up ceding the Opposition's space to Sena.

With Sena back in the alliance with the BJP, space is vacant. The moot question is whether the Congress-NCP can occupy that space, which in the first place is theirs. So far, both, and especially Congress, have shown very little or no sign of doing so.

Shrinking Vote Share

Voting statistics show that it is a matter of life and death for these parties. Congress's singular dominance came to an end in 1995, when the first BJP-Sena government was formed. Ever since then, the Congress' ( later with the NCP's) vote share has been slowly declining. In 1999 it was about 50 per cent. Later, though it remained in power for three consecutive terms till 2014 the vote share is coming down.

In 2009, when it won the assembly last time, Congress and NCP's combined vote share was about 37 per cent, while BJP-Sena's was 35 per cent. 15 years since then the vote shares in the Lok Sabha elections were – BJP-Sena – about 51 per cent and Congress – 32 per cent. This means that Congress and NCP have lost 19 per cent vote share in the last 20 years about five per cent in the last five years.

(In the Lok Sabha elections NCP won four and Congress just one seat. Out of this one, NCP MP has now since resigned and joined BJP. And the Congress MP who won had joined the party at the last minute from Shiv Sena).

Not a Single Leader...

Curiously the Congress does not seem to have a plan to address this issue. Like the centre, there is a serious leadership crisis in the party at the state level. Former Chief Minister Ashok Chavan has had a shocking defeat in Lok Sabha elections in Nanded, his own pocket borough. Prithviraj Chavan was never a mass leader and he will find it very difficult to get elected in his assembly constituency in the upcoming election. Strange as it may sound for a party which ruled the state and centre for 60 to 70 years, but there is not a single leader left in the state, of whom, it could be said with certainty he/she would win the assembly election for sure.

What it still banks on is its support base in Dalits and Muslims as well as the co-operative institutions which some of its leaders have raised and managed successfully. Thanks to its pan-Indian image, it still has some foothold in cosmopolitan cities like Mumbai and Nagpur.

Sharad Pawar's NCP is in a little better shape. It has got many second-rung leaders who could inspire confidence among the activists and voters. Its organisational structure is in better shape, thanks to more number of cooperatives under its fold. Leaders like Ajit Pawar, Jayant Patil seem (at least till now) undefeatable. Sharad Pawar's charisma still works, though with a lesser degree, in Western Maharashtra.

But NCP is almost non-existant in big cities like Mumbai, Thane, Pune, Nagpur etc. Also, it has failed to win over Dalits, Muslims and OBCs, as it is being mostly seen as a party of Marathas.

Being together helps them both. But it has its limitations. Secondly, having been in power for so many years, neither do they know nor have they shown any inclination to learn, what it takes to be good Opposition. Hence, in the last five years, they have been unable to organise any major challenge to the government.

Opportunities lost

Opportunities were many, but they simply squandered them. For example, there were many corruption scandals like Chikki scam ( irregularities in purchasing the supplementary diet for the school children) or a spate of crimes happening in Devendra Fadnavis's hometown, Nagpur. But they could not put the BJP in the box over them.

There were many instances of inefficiencies or government apathy. For example, the loan waiver scheme was to benefit 89000 farmers according to the initial announcement. But in the end, only about 24000 did get the benefit. Similarly, the CM's own pet water conservation programme did not achieve the desired result leaving the Marathwada in drought even this year. But the Opposition could not capitalise on it.

In fact, all the notable agitations or consistent anti-government campaigns in the last five years did happen only at the behest of the non-political or small outfits. The agitation by the farmers for remunerative prices or their strike or agitation for Maratha reservation or the Opposition to the Nanar oil-refinery were all organised by non-party groupings. Media supported them and the government had to accede to the demands completely or partially. But no political party, certainly not the Congress or NCP were involved in them. (To be fair to them, they are also not claiming the same.)

And as if their own deficiencies were not enough, BJP and Sena have further dealt some body blows to both Congress and NCP by engineering lot of rebellion in them in the recent past. They have made them weaker.

With elections just 14 days away, it is quite a humongous task in front of the Congress and NCP to gather themselves and put up a stiff challenge. Or people may well ask, were they really rulers for 60 years?