New Delhi: China recently celebrated 70 years of communist rule with a grand parade by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). As hundreds of tanks rolled through Tiananmen Square and 15,000 soldiers marched in unison, on view were some of China’s latest and most advanced military systems.
China’s adoption of hypersonic technology was evident in the two new missile systems on display – the DF-41 and the DF-17. The DF-41, with a range of 15,000 km, is capable of flying at a speed of Mach 25 and can hit the United States with multiple warheads within 30 minutes of its launch. The DF-17 is a hypersonic glide vehicle that flies at five times the speed of sound and can maneuver during flight, making it difficult to shoot down. General John Hyten, the vice-chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, had admitted in March 2018, "We don't have any defence that could deny the employment of such a weapon against us”.
There was an exhibition of the PLA's advances in unmanned systems. The Gongji-11 stealth unmanned aerial vehicle can avoid detection by radars and attack strategic targets deep in the enemy’s rear. Also unveiled was the DR-8, a supersonic high-altitude reconnaissance drone that is rumoured to fly at speeds exceeding Mach 4. The PLA Navy paraded the HSU-001, a large unmanned underwater vehicle that could be deployed to monitor hostile naval activity in the East and South China Seas.
It is evident that the PLA is well on its way towards the stated goal of completing military modernization by 2035. An effective military is not judged merely by its weapon systems but also by its organizational structures for warfighting, training standards, personnel policies, indigenous defence production, and civil-military integration. It is also in these areas that China has shown steady progress in the past few years.
In November 2015, a major restructuring of the PLA was ordered at the plenary session of the leading group for national defence and military reform. This followed an announcement by President Xi Jinping in September that the PLA would reduce its manpower by 300,000 personnel. Despite some internal resistance, in February 2016, the seven military regions were reorganized into five theatre commands, and the four PLA General Departments replaced by 15 functional organs working directly under the Central Military Commission. This was only the start of deeper structural reforms to make the military more capable of undertaking joint operations and enhancing its capabilities to conduct space, electronic warfare, and cyberspace operations.
The PLA's lack of combat experience, called the 'peace disease' by President Xi, has been a source of concern about its ability to conduct modern warfighting. To improve training standards, last year the PLA published a new Outline of Training and Evaluation that focused on realistic and joint training. Although the PLA still has a long way to go to match the advanced militaries around the world, it does acknowledge its weakness and is working to overcome it.
China’s development of its defence industrial complex is extremely impressive. Each year, Defence News publishes a list of the world’s top 100 defence firms. Last year there was not a single Chinese firm on the list, but in 2019 six Chinese companies figure in the top 15. China has attained self-sufficiency in almost all fields of defence equipment and is producing some world-class missiles and land systems. According to the International Institute of Strategic Studies, between 2014 and 2018, China commissioned more submarines, warships, principal amphibious vessels and auxiliaries than the total number of ships serving in the navies of Germany, India, Spain, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom.
The PLA’s drive for new warfighting technologies is supported by a comprehensive civil-military integration (CMI) program that seeks to synergise the efforts of the defence and civil industry in the development of dual-use and emerging technologies. Incentives are provided to the civilian sector to participate in defence production, and academic institutions like the Tsinghua University are partnering with the Central Military Commission Science and Technology Commission for research on Artificial Intelligence applications.
The growing military capability of the PLA is in line with China’s aspirations for great power status. The contours of China's rise and its final destination cannot be predicted, but two things are certain. The first certainty is that China's rise will be directly contested by the United States. General Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had said that “China probably poses the greatest threat to our nation by about 2025”, a sentiment that is echoed by many U.S. officials. The second certainty is that the U.S.-China rivalry will mainly play out in Asia, and countries like India could be forced to choose sides.
John J. Mearsheimer, who proposed the theory of offensive realism in his book The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, has this to say about the long-term possibility of China’s peaceful rise:
“My argument, in a nutshell, is that if China continues to grow economically, it will attempt to dominate Asia the way the United States dominates the Western Hemisphere. The United States, however, will go to enormous lengths to prevent China from achieving regional hegemony. Most of Beijing’s neighbors, including India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Russia, and Vietnam, will join with the United States to contain Chinese power. The result will be an intense security competition with considerable potential for war. In short, China’s rise is unlikely to be tranquil.”
Mearsheimer’s assessment may not be completely accurate, but as a rising power in its own right, India's resistance to Chinese hegemony appears inevitable. This will require a capable Indian military that is organized and equipped to fight a modern war. Currently, there is too much hype over the induction of every piece of military equipment, and this often hides the serious deficiencies that exist, the lack of comprehensive reform in the services, and the slow pace of indigenization. China’s approach to military modernization could perhaps provide some useful lessons.
Also Read: Naxal commander with Rs 8 lakh bounty killed in encounter
