New Delhi: Plagued for long decades by violent insurgency movements, the Northeast (NE) India region now stares at a possible spectre of the beginning of a low intensity conflict with the rise of an aggressive and nationalist China with a belligerent attitude towards India.
While most government attention is riveted on the north Indian front facing Pakistan across the Line of Control (LoC) and now China, especially in eastern Ladakh, across the Line of Actual Control (LAC), it is through the NE frontier that China has the most potential to interfere through the many insurgent outfits operating in the restive region.
With an all-out war being seen as a non-option by both the nuclear-armed neigbours, a low intensity conflict that can be fought by ever-ready and eager proxies is a strong possibility for China to trouble India.
China shares a totally porous 1,126 km long border with Arunachal Pradesh. It is the routes through the eastern part of the state that most insurgents use to enter Myanmar and then into China’s Yunnan province.
In the past, insurgents from Assam, Manipur, Nagaland and Mizoram had established contact with Chinese state actors to seek shelter and logistical support.
While China had desisted from directly helping them till now, the escalating military tension with India has provided China with an ideal opportunity to take advantage of the situation.
ASSAM
Amid the Indian Army’s ongoing standoff with China’s PLA on several points in eastern Ladakh, the Paresh Baruah-led United Liberation Front of Asom (Independent) (ULFA-I) came out with a 17-minute- long video message this week where it declared open support for China.
At one point, the ULFA (I) publicity official goes back to the 1962 conflict and says the PLA never harmed any indigenous Assamese and on the contrary, helped local farmers with agricultural operations.
The ULFA’s association with China goes back several decades. At one point of time, the leading insurgent group of Assam had also met with provincial representatives of Yunnan seeking logistical and military support.
Baruah himself is reported to be residing in the border town of Ruli, a county-level city of Dehong Prefecture in China.
This may possibly be the second time ULFA (I) has come out in China’s support. The first previous time was in March 2012 when the banned outfit vehemently criticised the then anti-China protests in Assam by Tibetan activists and their supporters saying the exiled Tibetan establishment never expressed any concern for atrocities and human rights violations in Assam in the last three decades.
ULFA (I) is believed to have a few hundred heavily-armed fighters ensconced in camps in the jungles near India-Myanmar border from where it is about a day’s travel to reach the China border. The outfit continues to oppose peace overtures for negotiations and remains inflexible in its demand for an independent Assam.
On the other hand, a 15-year-old ongoing talks process between the government and a faction of the ULFA has failed to yield anything till now leading to a sense of weariness amongst many in the state.
NAGAS
Nagas are spread across four states in the Northeast region. One of the main benefactors of the Naga insurgency movement had been China when the Asian giant was one of the first countries that the Naga insurgents had looked for help and support.
In fact, the first few batches of the Naga Underground had trained in weapons and ideology in China beginning in 1967 when the first batch of 133 Naga rebels walked to China.
Known to be the world’s second oldest running insurgency, the Naga underground movement is called the ‘mother of all insurgencies’ in the region.
With the Naga issue evading a decisive solution even after 23 years of protracted negotiations with the government and not much hope of a breakthrough in the near future, there is a lot of frustration among the Nagas.
Unconfirmed reports speak of many disillusioned NSCN (IM) fighters having left India along with their weapons and equipment to set up new camps in Myanmar.
In 2015, a lot of hopes were spurred when a framework agreement was inked between the government and the NSCN (IM) but there has been no real progress after that.
And then, on February 14 this year, about 2,000 Nagas in Manipur’s Ukhrul, a hotbed of the NSCN (IM), organized a music concert to express solidarity with China against the scourge of coronavirus that had spread uncontrollably in Wuhan. This is a warning sign for the Indian establishment.
MIZOS
Last year, a former Mizoram chief minister, leading a group of protestors against the Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB) in Mizoram’s capital Aizawl, carried a placard saying “Hello China”. For those familiar with the state’s violent history when the Mizo National Front (MNF) led a blazing insurgency movement across the hills beginning in the sixties, it set alarm bells ringing.
MANIPUR
At about 50, Manipur has the most number of insurgent outfits. In a state with acute lack of employment avenues, insurgency has become a way of life for most especially youngsters. With many of the powerful Meitei outfits adhering to communist beliefs, aligning with China is a natural thing to do.
Even on the ground, many of these insurgent outfits had received critical support from China. That historical legacy and network still exists which China can leverage to its advantage.
YOUTH RETURNEES
At the moment, there are lakhs of youth migrants across the NE who have returned to their native states from the mainland due to the coronavirus pandemic. They have no jobs, no money and no assured future. Their vulnerability offers a very fertile and volatile recruiting bowl for insurgency organizations that abound in the NE.
Among these youth, many would be familiar with stories of intolerance and racial discrimination that led many mainland people to ostracise them because of their distinguishable Mongoloid looks.
CAA
The National Register for Citizens (NRC) issue and the passing of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) was seen by many in the NE as a bulldozing act by the Centre. The protests against CAA have been overshadowed and overtaken by the fear spread by the rampaging coronavirus.
But the groundswell of support for the NRC and against the CAA is rampant. It is felt that CAA was passed in total disregard to the feelings and sentiments of the NE people who rose up in unified protest across the region like never before and that it was as much a result of a flawed understanding of the identity issue in NE as the intention to bulldoze it through against popular support.
These are just among the few factors that could lead to an increasing Chinese interest in NE in the days to come. In a nutshell, the prevailing socio-political landscape in NE is changing towards a situation where it will be much conducive for China to meddle in.
Therefore, it will be prudent of the government to take adequate steps including eschewing the myopic policy for NE in the road ahead and focus on the long term goal of winning the battle for the hearts and minds of the people. (END)
