42 days and counting as all is quiet on Ladakh front

There is total radio silence between the Indian and Chinese militaries about one-and-a-half months after the last round of talks took place at Chushul, writes senior journalist Sanjib Kr Baruah.

New Delhi:With temperatures plummeting to lower than minus 20 degrees in eastern Ladakh’s Chushul—the site for talks between the two sides—India-China ties has also gone dead cold and hit pit bottom with no communication between the two sides after November 6 when the eighth round of negotiations took place.

And with the cold has also dissipated any prospect whatsoever of the next round of talks taking place to ease the increased tension in eastern Ladakh where unprecedented mobilization has taken place with more than 1,00,000 soldiers deployed besides huge ammunition dumps having been set up by both sides since April-May.

“Although the eighth round of talks had held out the prospect of a subsequent round of talks, there has been no communication between the two sides in the last 42 days. There is complete radio silence now,” a source familiar with the issue told ETV Bharat.

“Also with the weather turning increasingly inclement, there is no way any movement of men and material can be carried out now even if some sort of ‘disengagement and de-escalatory’ moves are agreed to.”

Incidentally, ETV Bharat had written on October 29 itself that the eighth round of talks (that took place on November 6) would possibly be the last mainly due to two factors.

One, the talks with an army commander and a foreign ministry joint secretary from the Indian side with a commander from the PLA side simply did not have the mandate to talk ‘disengagement and de-escalation’ due to perceptional difference in the nature of understanding where the border is demarcated. Resolution of the issue would need escalation to top political leadership of the two countries.

Added to the complexity is the new Chinese demand to restore territories on the basis of a 1959 claim line, a line that was first proposed by former Chinese PM Chou el-Lai and was turned down by his Indian counterpart Jawaharlal Nehru.

Two, ‘disengagement and de-escalation’ logistics were to get very difficult due to hostile weather conditions.

As of now, the two militaries appear dead set to dig in and brace for the bitter winter that has already set in.

In effect, the military confrontation in eastern Ladakh is well turning out to be a battle of logistics and a war of reserves. Whoever has better linkages between the front area and the rear where the reserves are maintained will find it easier to fight the vagaries of nature.

Till now, eight rounds of talks have taken place at the military commander level on June 6, June 22, June 30, July 14, August 2, September 21, October 12 and November 6.

“In all possibility, the next round of talks would take place when the snow melts and the winter eases out,” the source added. And that would be in March-April.