As predicted, Assam sees a second saffron surge

Despite the formation of a grand alliance by the Congress and All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), the ruling BJP is all set to storm back to power for a second consecutive term in Assam. Although the final tally is yet to be made public, indications are clear that the ruling BJP led alliance will form the next government in the state.

Guwahati: Despite the formation of a grand alliance by the Congress and All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), the ruling BJP is all set to storm back to power for a second consecutive term in Assam. Although the final tally is yet to be made public, indications are clear that the ruling BJP led alliance will form the next government in the state.

The saffron alliance had so far secured 74 seats out of the total 126 assembly seats in the state while the Congress-led alliance could manage only 47 seats. Counting for the four seats are still in progress. While BJP's newfound partner in Assam, United Peoples' Party Liberal (UPPL) managed to help the saffron alliance with 6 seats in Bodoland areas, the party also reduced the seats of Bodoland Peoples Front (BPF), thereby affecting the anti-BJP alliance.

Surprises were sprung in this election as jailed RTI activist Akhil Gogoi won from the Sibsagar assembly constituency without even doing a single campaign, while former All Assam Students' Union (Aasu) leader Lurinjyoti Gogoi failed to ensure his victory from Naharkatia and Duliajan constituencies. While Akhil managed to emerge victorious despite a high-pitched campaign by none other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Sibsagar constituency for the BJP candidate Surabhi Rajkonwari, Lurinjyoti lost both the constituencies to BJP candidates Taranga Gogoi and Teras Goala.

It may be mentioned that Akhil Gogoi had contested the elections on a ticket of newly formed Raijor Dal, Lurinjyoti Gogoi contested on a ticket of Asom Jatiya Parishad (AJP), a new political party floated just ahead of the elections. Both the new parties, however, remained unsuccessful to garner people's support as a strong regional front as expected.

While the BJP had contested the elections on a development agenda and highlighted the development works undertaken in the past five years, the Congress-led alliance, as well as the two new regional parties, focused and unsuccessfully tried to cash in on the sentiment against Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA). The Congress' alliance with the AIUDF, which was aimed at polarizing the votes of the religious minority community, also failed to bear any fruit this time.

Although the BJP led government in Assam had faced flak and witnessed series of agitation against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) since 2019, the saffron party seems to have convinced the people of Assam that 'Badruddin Ajmal is a greater threat than CAA' in Assam. The saffron party targeted the Congress-led alliance and launched a campaign that Ajmal will be deputy Chief Minister of the state if they come to power in Assam.

Other factors that seemed to have worked in favour of the BJP are the massive beneficiary-oriented schemes, particularly the giving away of two-wheelers to girl students securing first division in the higher secondary examination and 'Orunodoi' scheme, which has provided financial assistance of Rs. 830 per month through Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) scheme to around 22 lakh families in the state.

Because a huge number of women cast their vote this time it is assumed that the saffron party's announcement to waive off the microfinance loan for women in the state had also done some magic for the ruling alliance. The BJP led government in December 2020 had also passed the Assam Microfinance Institutions (Regulation of Money Lending) Bill, 2020 to rein in the mushrooming microfinance institutions in the state. According to the state government's estimate, several thousands of women in Assam have liability to the tune of Rs. 1200 crore due to unregulated microfinance loans.

"There has been complete polarization of votes this time. The votes have been divided into 65 percent and 35 percent. The beneficiary-oriented schemes of the government have also impacted the election to a large extent this time. As the ruling government had focused on the creation of beneficiaries, there is a huge number of silent voters who had voted in favour of the saffron party," said Prashanta Rajguru, veteran journalist and editor of Assam while reacting to the election results.

"Although there were protests against the BJP over the Citizenship Amendment Act in the past and non-implementation of Clause 6 of the Assam Accord, it failed to impact the voters ahead of the elections. The BJP has also managed to retain its vote share like 2016 due to various beneficiary schemes which they had launched in the last five years," said Brajen Deka, political analyst and columnist.