Afghanistan falls to Taliban again after twenty years

The rapid fall of Afghanistan within ten days and the last twenty-four hours in particular when the battered nation witnessed the collapse of the capital city of Kabul, thus falling into the hands of armed insurgents- the Taliban. Bringing to an end, 20 years of US-supported regime led by President Ashraf Ghani, writes ETV Bharat News Editor Bilal Bhat.

Hyderabad: The rapid fall of Afghanistan within ten days and the last twenty-four hours in particular when the battered nation witnessed the collapse of the capital city of Kabul, thus falling into the hands of armed insurgents- the Taliban. Bringing to an end, 20 years of US-supported regime led by President Ashraf Ghani.

The Talibans are back at the helm for the second time, to send shivers down the spine of Afghan citizens. Actually, the historic city has been under their control in September 2001 when the twin towers of the US were attacked by the Al-Qaeda which became a reason for the US to invade Afghanistan. Nonetheless, the insurgents have grabbed power again riding on their mighty tribal forces since no major gains were made by the military action of the US, aimed to achieve for twenty years in revenge against the attack on Pentagon.

More than three lakhs of Afghan armed troops and police personnel were trained and aided by the US laid down their arms before the Taliban fighters after Ghani left the country along with Amrullah Saleh, the intelligence chief, who has been a brain behind all major anti-Taliban operations.

Soleh has been a staunch anti-Taliban commander, a close aide of slain Ahmad Shah Masood commander Masood- who built military and intelligence infrastructure in Afghanistan against the Taliban. Since Saleh had a bitter experience with Americans as they deserted him and his team in the past, he did not want to take any chances again and fled the country to escape persecution. The US deserted Saleh and his team when they needed them the most after commander Masood was killed by the Taliban fighters. It was the CIA that had promised Masood strong support against the Taliban which later deserted them for their lack of interest in the region till the twin towers were attacked. Afghan forces in 2000 led by Arullah Saleh wanted to fight against the Taliban but were left to the mercy of their menial resources which they had then brought from the US is what Steeve Coll recalls in his book ‘Directorate’.

Though Amrullah Saleh was funded and aided by the US through Germany and the arms and equipment would enter through Tajikistan into Afghanistan, at his own risk, did not help the country much in resisting advances of Taliban but September 11 attack changed the dynamics, the US troops invaded Afghanistan to hunt down the Al Qaeda operatives and those who supported them- The Taliban, labelled as ‘war on terror' by US.

The Al Qaeda chief Osama Bin Laden was killed in Pakistan in 2011, a primary objective for the US to invade Afghanistan, left America with no major motivation to continue their fight against the 'terror.' They were wary of day-to-day fights against the Taliban which would bleed their economy. The US did not see a major role in the war-ravaged country than to burn their money in fighting the brutal tribal forces. They sought an exit through a dialogue that began under Trump’s Presidentship and finalised by the Biden administration in 2021 through a troops withdrawal. But the calculations the US state department had made seem to have gone wrong as they thought their exit would bring bloodshed and fierce infighting and the armed forces trained and aided by them would fight back and hold on for some time, at least for few months. But the rapid fall brought a huge embarrassment to the US.

It was not only the miscalculation but lack of intelligence inputs on the strengths that Taliban had accumulated over a period of time. Giving up arms before the Taliban raises questions about the kind of training government forces received which led to the fall of Kabul quietly. The speedy fall of the entire country together with the Kabul city poses numerous queries about the intelligence assets the US had built over the last two decades. It actually has been the delusion of the US that they knew what was happening on the ground was actually far away from reality. They didn’t know Taliban had prepared the ground and planned well in advance to capture provinces whenever the opportunity comes. It proved right when the US withdrawal began. The biggest airbase of Bagram was clandestinely deserted by the US troops in the dead of night which even the administration wasn't aware of. Keeping the administration in dark, starkly exposes the intentions they had for Gani administration. The US wanted only a safe exit is what one can comprehend from the whole process from withdrawal to fall of Afghanistan.

Obviously, the neighbouring countries- Pakistan, China and Russia etc have not been supporting anti-Taliban forces. Afghanistan shares borders with Iran, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and also China. Before the country collapsed, the Taliban leadership visited all the neighboring countries to gain their support which includes Iran, China, Tajikistan, Russia, and Pakistan, and expected them to stay 'neutral' if not in their support.

The political geography of the country is not that easy to comprehend unless one understands the diverse ethnic, religious groups, and cultural dynamics that contribute to all the decisions that the country’s elders make. The institution like Loya Jirga, grand assembly- with the representation of all the ethnicities plays a decisive role in sorting out complex issues in Afghan society. These institutions have all the mandate to intervene in day-to-day affairs. Loya Jirga is one of the major components to decide upon the future course of the country which Taliban will have to agree.