Afghanistan could be ‘theatre of competition’ among extremist groups, warns expert

In an interaction with ETV Bharat senior correspondent Chandrakala Choudhury, former ambassador to Afghanistan Gautam Mukhopadhaya said Afghanistan could become the ‘theatre of competition’ among extremist organizations, just like the Taliban and elements of ISIS-K.

New Delhi: The ongoing fierce fighting between the Taliban and resistance forces in Afghanistan's Panjshir province, the last region holding out against the armed group, has pushed the future of the province and the country as a whole to the brink. While the Taliban has claimed to have taken control of Panjshir north of Kabul, the National Resistance Force is not willing to give up, reiterating they will continue to fight till last breath.

Delay in the formation of the new government in Afghanistan by the Taliban amid the ongoing fight between the two sides, has led to political instability in Kabul and the major question now is what happens next in Afghanistan? Will the world formally accept the Taliban.

Speaking to ETV Bharat on the recent developments, former ambassador to Afghanistan Gautam Mukhopadhaya said “The Panjshir resistance represents much more than just Panjshir. It represents a national resistance. Whether it is in Panjshir or outside, the resistance will continue. In fact, it could take another form. In case the national resistance does not succeed, there are warnings that there might be a possible north-south division of Afghanistan”.

Read: Without peace, no country will come out for development of Afghanistan: Expert

He underlined that there is absolutely no doubt that Pakistan is helping the Taliban to fight in Panjshir as credible reports are coming in that Pakistani drones, helicopters, commando units, certainly, a lot of intelligent satellite imagery and weaponry are being shared with the Taliban. “And the Taliban of course, have tried to invade Panjshir in very large numbers. Not just in attacking Panjshir, Pakistan is behind the entire invasion and occupation of Afghanistan by the Taliban. With the presence of the Pakistan ISI Chief in Kabul, what has been covert for the last 20 years, is now over," added Mukhopadhaya.

Meanwhile, on Monday, in an audio message, National Resistance Front Commander Ahmad Massoud said, "Wherever you are, inside or outside, I call on you to begin a national uprising for the dignity, freedom and prosperity of our country."

Ahmad Massoud in a series of tweets said they are in Panjshir and the resistance will continue. Earlier, Massoud tweeted, “The Taliban is not fighting with us but the Pakistani army and ISI are leading them. The Taliban are not strong enough to compete with us but the Pakistan army is cooperating with them”.

The National Resistance Front also said in a tweet that their forces were present in all strategic positions across the valley. The group assured the people of Afghanistan that the struggle against the Taliban will continue until justice and freedom prevails.

Now, how big a concern is the possible Taliban-Pakistan-China axis for India?

In response to this, Mukhopadhaya pointed out that it is a big concern for India not just because of the Pakistan-Taliban-China axis. “But together with the Taliban, there are dozens of extremist radical and terrorist organizations- some are anti-central Asian, anti-Iran, anti-India, anti-Shia, anti-minority- a whole conglomerate of the extremist organization including Al Qaeda and IS-K.

Therefore, the first concern is the return of large scale regional and international terrorism. The second concern is that now Pakistan’s political influence and control will be reinforced by China’s strategic heft and possibly economic muscle. But China also has to be very careful because if it is going to step into the ‘potpourri’ of extremist organizations, it runs the risk of being caught in the same bear trap that the Soviets were caught and later, even the Americans too. China wants stability for its strategic outreach and economic interest”, he added.

There they are at variance from Pakistan which wants continued instability in Afghanistan to prevent a threat to it on the Pashtun Question and differences over the Durand Line, the role of India etc.; and closer to us, but the direction the Chinese would like to orient the Afghan economy towards Central Asia and China using 'geo-economics is contrary to our interest in preserving our historical trade and cultural ties. It is very unlikely that China or Pakistan can succeed in this, he told ETV Bharat.

Apart from security challenges that arise for Jammu and Kashmir from Taliban-controlled Afghanistan and Pakistan’s influence, the nearly $3 billion that India has spent so far since 2001 in buildings dams, roads, electricity transmission lines, scholarships to thousands of students are at great risk.

Meanwhile, the Taliban has shown a marked interest in opening an official channel of communication with India, following which India’s ambassador to Qatar, Deepak Mittal held formal talks with the Taliban’s political head Stanekzai in Doha.

Read: Taliban say they took Panjshir, last holdout Afghan province

During the meeting, Mittal raised India’s concern that Afghanistan’s soil should not be used for anti-Indian activities and terrorism in any manner. Now it remains to be seen as to whether or not the Taliban adhere to their commitments. Many analysts suggest that India should take cautious steps in this regard.

Further, foreign policy expert Prof Harsh V Pant told ETV Bharat that the Taliban-Pakistan-China axis is a concern and will challenge India in some significant ways if the volatility in Afghanistan is not controlled.

He said, "It would also be costly for Pakistan and China because both of them would not want ‘blowback effect’ from Afghanistan to enter into their territory but it is increasingly clear that their concerns are about managing radicalization, terrorism and extremism emanating from Afghanistan”.

If the Taliban can provide regional stability then I think China will invest and if the Taliban cannot, then I don’t think China, in particular, would be very interested in investing in Afghanistan.

Therefore, that’s the challenge that the Taliban faces at the moment as to how do they provide a ‘model of governance, which is enticing enough for other countries, not only to give them recognition but also to invest in the larger developmental prospect of Afghanistan”, Pant added.

What happens next in Afghanistan as political instability looms large?

“The scenario is very grim and the best-case scenario is that they form a government, which will bring some stability even if it’s artificial-which will be very difficult if they are not inclusive because all the excluded communities, which composed more than 50 and close to 60% of Afghanistan will get alienated”, said ambassador Mukhopadhaya.

Secondly, the resistance will continue. What we are seeing in Panjshir is just the beginning of the resistance. The fall of Afghanistan has been sudden and has created shock amongst the Afghan people. Once the people realize what is happening and if the Taliban return to repressive practices of the past, there is bound to be resistance. Maybe new leaders will come up at different places because it is not going to be easily suppressed, he explained.

There could be regrouping of anti-Taliban political sources abroad and there could be a major division between the ethnic minorities, which includes larger minorities such as Uzbeks, Hazaras, smaller minorities and the Taliban”, opined the ex-envoy.

"Afghanistan could become a centre for international terrorism and particularly regional terrorism. It can also become the ‘theatre of competition’ among extremist organizations’, just like we have seen between the Taliban and elements of ISIS-K. In that case, Afghanistan might witness Iraq, Syria and Lybia type of scenario. Therefore, much depends on what the Taliban does in the first few days and months, whether it is inclusive and if it forms a government that is more moderate and inclusive," said the expert.