Can a Fractured Opposition Challenge BJP in Assam’s 2026 Assembly Elections?

Congress’s gamble of fielding a BJP defector in Assam’s by-elections backfired, raising doubts about the future of opposition unity, writes ETV Bharat’s Prasanta Kumar Baruah

Guwahati: The BJP’s clean sweep of all five seats in the Assam Assembly by-elections, touted as a semi-final before the 2026 Assembly polls, has left opposition parties, including the Congress, reeling. The results have ignited a heated debate in Assam’s political circles about whether the opposition can regroup to pose a credible challenge to the BJP in the upcoming elections.

The Congress, under the leadership of MP and Deputy Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Gaurav Gogoi, had even not hesitated to break the ‘Asom Sammilita Morcha’ (Assam United Front) alliance to field its own candidate in the Behali constituency. The alliance had initially agreed to allocate four seats to the Congress and one to the CPI(ML). However, the Congress party high command declared election candidature to Jayanta Bora in Behali before he joined the party, according to Gaurav’s wish. The Congress fielded BJP leader Jayanta Bora as their candidate, causing a rift within the party. The APCC President Bhupen Bora and Gaurav Gogoi had a clear difference of opinion on the issue.

Even after the 0-5 defeat of the Congress in the by-elections, Gaurav Gogoi described the Congress-led anti-BJP front in Assam as a failure. In other words, Gaurav Gogoi denied the relevance of the opposition front formed by the initiative of Congress national leader and in-charge of Assam Jitendra Singh and APCC President Bhupen Bora.

The meetings of the dissolved Congress-led Assam Anti-BJP Unity Forum were held at a hotel named Hotel Lily in Guwahati. The BJP had strongly criticized the move as just a meeting for dinner. After the BJP, Congress MP Gaurav Gogoi too criticized the Hotel Lily meetings held during the by-elections. After losing all the seats in the by-elections, Gaurav Gogoi said, “We don’t need Hotel Lily. We have to sit in the tea shop. I have seen good dhabas in Behali. We will sit in Behali.”

The APCC President Bhupen Bora, keen on resurrecting the disintegrated opposition front, has not shied away from responding to Gaurav Gogoi’s remarks. Bhupen Bora has advocated an anti-BJP coalition in Assam for the 2026 Assembly elections. He said, “United Opposition will shake BJP only if it sits in the Lily. The Congress party will talk to people and take advice from people at all levels, including anti-BJP parties, poets, writers, and artists, for the 2026 elections.”

Most of the opposition parties have advocated reuniting to counter the BJP in 2026, despite calling the Congress a traitor during the events ahead of the by-elections. “The Congress did not understand the unity of the opposition, and that’s why the results in the by-elections were so bad. Without the unity of the Opposition, the BJP’s defeat in 2026 is impossible,” said Lurin Jyoti Gogoi, the secretary of the disbanded opposition front and president of the regional party Asom Jatiyo Parisad.

Another regional party Raijor Dal chief and MLA Akhil Gogoi has made an appeal to Congress and other opposition parties for a united fight against BJP in 2026. He said, “It is because of Gaurav Gogoi’s arrogance that the BJP won five seats in Assam today. The only lesson we must learn from this is that in 2026 we must be together again. But the Congress must give up its arrogance.”

Now, after Gaurav Gogoi denied and criticized the anti-BJP unity forum, the question naturally arises whether the anti-BJP alliance for 2026 in Assam is moving backward after the BJP made a clean sweep in all five seats in the by-elections.

The decision of Gaurav Gogoi is now the final decision in the Assam Congress. The manner in which a by-poll ticket was given to an ex-BJP leader first, only after which he joined the party the next day, proved Gaurav’s stature within the party ranks.

Now Gaurav’s apparent firm stand on making Congress a strong solo force rather than shaking hands with other anti-BJP forces even after the by-poll debacle is making the build-up to the 2026 vote battle an interesting one. The question is whether the anti-BJP alliance will resurge or is it the end of the road for the opposition unity in Assam?

Read More