PM Modi's Ukraine Visit: Decoding Who Wants What

Following his Moscow trip, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to visit Ukraine next month, his first visit to the embattled country since the Russian invasion began in 2022. India never criticized Russia for the invasion while insisting on talks as the way forward. Ukraine may have expanded its ability to target deep within Russia but this would have limited impact on the conflict.

News reports mention that PM Modi is likely to visit Ukraineon August 23, details of which are still being worked out. This will be Modi’s first visit to the country since the Russia-Ukraine war commenced.

The PM had earlier visited Moscow for two days in July. Before his Moscow visit, PM Modi had met Ukrainian President, Vladimir Zelensky, on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Italy, where an invitation to visit Kyiv was given.

What was damaging for the US was that PM Modi’s Moscow visit coincided with the NATO summit in Washington, dominating Russian media, and sidelining NATO’s warning to Moscow. A US media report mentioned that ‘US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell spoke with Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra in early July hoping that the Modi-Putin encounter might be rescheduled to avoid coinciding with the NATO Summit.’

This was debunked by Vinay Kwatra, who stated, “The bilateral visit this time is just a scheduling priority that we have undertaken. And that’s what it is.”

The US ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti, added to Washington’s displeasure on the visit by mentioning that India should not take US friendship ‘for granted.’ The US National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, added that banking ‘on Russia as a long-term, reliable partner, is not a good bet.’ The US ignored India’s strategic independence.

Zelensky, the Ukrainian president was exceptionally critical as the visit coincided with a missile strike on a children’s hospital in Kyiv, which Moscow denied. Zelensky stated, ‘It is disheartening to see the leader of the world's largest democracy embrace the world's most notorious criminal in Moscow.’ India subsequently raised the comment with Kyiv at the diplomatic level.

There is much more behind the forthcoming visit than possibly meets the eye. Primarily, PM Modi would have discussed Russian conditions to terminate the war with President Putin during his discussions in Moscow. These may not be exactly what Russia has been announcing to the world. The globe is aware of Indo-Russia ties and the influence New Delhi has over Moscow.

India never criticized Russia for the invasion while insisting on talks as the way forward. Ukraine may have expanded its ability to target deep within Russia but this would have limited impact on the conflict. Simultaneously, global events indicate a change in current levels of support for Ukraine thereby reducing its ability to continue pursuing the conflict. Within Ukraine, war fatigue also appears to be setting in.

A German draft budget mentions that the country is contemplating nearly halving its military funding to Ukraine from Euro 6.7 billion to 4 billion. Germany was the largest financial backer of Ukraine in Europe. Further, leaders gaining power in European nations are hesitant to back current funding levels.

The US elections might bring Donald Trump into the White House, who has promised to end the war. In all probability he would cut funding, compelling Ukraine into talks. The conditions imposed by Trump would not be appealing to Zelensky.

The three Ukrainian peace summits, Copenhagen, Riyadh and the latest in Switzerland have failed to make any headway nor project concrete proposals for dialogue. The communique issued after the last summit was only a display of solidarity with Ukraine, inked by 81 countries, none of which were BRICS nations, which have some influence on Russia.

The war is currently at a state of stalemate with not much progress by either side. The demands of both nations can never be met, implying that they have to be scaled down. It is thus time to talk peace.

China recently waded into the Middle East conflict by bringing together all 14 Palestinian factions to ink the Beijing Declaration, setting aside their differences. It had earlier brokered the Iran-Saudi Arabia peace deal, which resulted in the two nations re-establishing diplomatic ties after seven years.

It had now begun to wade into the Russo-Ukraine conflict. It is sending the message that while the US is dividing nations and promoting conflicts, China is attempting to end them. Thus, it is hinting that the US is a ‘warmonger’, while Beijing is the ‘peacemaker’.

Zelensky has repeatedly accused China of backing Russia as also joining hands with Moscow to derail its peace summits. Xi has only spoken to the Ukrainian president once since the war began.

In late July, for the first time since the conflict began, the Ukrainian foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, visited Guangzhou in China at the invitation of his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, for three days. The reason for choosing Guangzhou and not Beijing was possibly to limit Kuleba’s interactions with the Chinese leadership.

It is known that China is one of Russia’s main backers and also the nation with maximum influence over it. There were lengthy meetings between Kuleba and Wang Yi in Guangzhou, possibly including sharing of Ukrainian views on conflict termination. China already has Moscow’s perception of the conclusion of the war.

China had thus far exploited the conflict to its advantage, becoming the dominant nation in Central Asia with Russia as the junior partner. However, the scenario is changing. The US is effectively pressurizing Europe to reduce its trade links with China including imposing higher taxes on Chinese imports.

The anti-China view was evident in the communique issued after the NATO summit which mentioned, ‘The PRC (People’s Republic of China) cannot enable the largest war in Europe in recent history without this negatively impacting its interests and reputation.’ Sanctions on Chinese financial institutions are being enhanced for trading with Russia, imposing caution. Hence, China is attempting to display supporting termination of the conflict regaining its trade ties with Europe.

For the West, Chinese brokered talks resulting in a possible ceasefire may not abode well. It may enhance China's reputation and global standing while impacting that of the US and Europe.

India is a Western ally and would be supported in case it is able to push through dialogue and a ceasefire. PM Modi may not succeed but the fact that he is wading into a complex conflict could signal a change in perception from what has thus far been that New Delhi is a Russian ally.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat.

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