Pakistan Election Outcome: Expect Status Quo in Bilateral Ties till Lok Sabha Polls in India

Though former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is expected to win the Pakistan elections, ties between New Delhi and Islamabad are unlikely to improve any time soon, writes ETV Bharat’s Aroonim Bhuyan.

New Delhi: As the political landscape in Pakistan undergoes a transformation following Thursday’s elections, the eyes of the international community are keenly fixed on the implications for India-Pakistan relations.

While elections often herald the possibility of diplomatic shifts and policy realignments, the fundamental dynamics between the two neighbouring nations may persist in a status quo. Despite the expected change in leadership and the nuanced challenges that will be faced by the newly elected government in Pakistan, the historical context, deeply rooted issues, and geopolitical complexities suggest that any immediate breakthrough or deterioration in bilateral relations between India and Pakistan may remain elusive.

On Thursday, Pakistan held its 12th national general elections to usher in a new government amidst numerous crises in the nuclear-armed nation of 241 million. Media reports suggest that the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, is anticipated to secure the position as the predominant party, with Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) likely to follow as a distant second. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), led by cricketer-turned-politician and another former Prime Minister Imran Khan, is also expected to be a significant contender, along with various other political parties.

Speculations are rife about the relations between India and Pakistan if PML-N’s Nawaz Sharif returns to power. This is because PML-N manifesto ahead of the elections calls for improved relations with India.

“Relations with India would be anchored in mutual respect, a shared vision for regional stability, and economic growth,” the PML-N manifesto states. “Both nations need to engage in sustained diplomatic dialogue to address and mitigate regional tensions.” However, it comes with a rider that “primacy will be given to the resolution of disputes, especially that of Jammu and Kashmir”.

“Pakistan would strive for a balanced partnership, ensuring equitable opportunities for both sides,” the manifesto states. “Trade between India and Pakistan and connectivity within the SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) region, can open up new vistas for regional prosperity. Holding the much-delayed SAARC Summit in Islamabad, as had been promised by India, would be the concrete first step in putting the regional cooperation policy back on track.”

The SAARC is a regional intergovernmental organisation and geopolitical union of states in South Asia. Its member states are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. SAARC comprises 3 percent of the world's land area, 21 percent of the world's population and 5.21 percent of the global economy as of 2021.

After the cross-border terror attack from Pakistan on an army base at Uri in Jammu and Kashmir in September 2016, that year's SAARC Summit that was scheduled to be held in Islamabad stood cancelled after other members of the group joined India in boycotting it. No SAARC summit has been held since then.

Ties between India and Pakistan went further deep south after the Pulwama terror attack that claimed the lives of over 40 CRPF personnel. The terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammed, based in Pakistan, claimed responsibility for the attack. The incident heightened tensions between India and Pakistan, leading to a series of events that brought the two nuclear-armed neighbours to the brink of conflict.

New Delhi has been maintaining all this time that talks and terror cannot go together given Pakistan’s support to terrorist groups based on its soil. So, do India-Pakistan relations have a chance of revival once a new government comes to power in Islamabad? Referring to the PML-N’s manifesto, Khalid Mahmood Khalid, senior journalist in the Jang group of newspapers, said that Sharif definitely wants to improve relations with India.

“However, until Narendra Modi remains Prime Minister and until the results of the general elections in India are out, it is difficult to say,” Khalid told ETV Bharat over phone fresh after casting his vote in Lahore. Ehsan Ahmed Sehar, Editor-in-Chief of the Daily Nawa-i-Ahmedpur Sharqia Pakistan and Patron of All Pakistan Regional Newspapers Society, too agreed with Khalid.

"PML-N is a big supporter of good India-Pakistan relations,” Sehar told ETV Bharat after casting his vote at Bahawalpur in Pakistan’s Punjab province. However, he said that it remains to be seen whether the PML-N can get a simple majority. “In case the PML-N doesn’t get a two-thirds majority, there will have to be a consultation as to who will be the Prime Minister,” Sehar said.

But the fact of the matter, as media reports suggest, is that the PTI is still a strong contender. Though Imran Khan has been barred from contesting the elections after being jailed in connection with three criminal cases against him, his party’s members are contesting as independents after being denied the cricket bat symbol. “PTI will not get more than 30-40 seats,” Sehar said. “They are contesting without a leader and symbol.”

According to Khalid, had the cricket bat symbol been allotted to the PTI, it would have been difficult to defeat the party. “PTI candidates contesting as independents are using Imran Khan’s photo in place of the earlier allotted party symbol,” Khalid said. “In some constituencies, other symbols are being used.”

Meanwhile, Sehar also pointed out that even if the PTI attains power, it is unlikely that India-Pakistan relations will see any change. This is because Imran Khan’s position is different from that of Sharif. The former Pakistani cricketer wants the issue of Jammu and Kashmir to be resolved before holding talks with India. Now, what if the PML-N doesn’t get a simple majority in the 342-member National Assembly?

This then brings the PPP back into the picture. After Imran Khan’s PTI government was removed in a no-confidence motion in April 2022, the PPP joined a coalition to form a government with Sharif’s brother Shehbaz Sharif as a Prime Minister.

According to Shehar, if the possibility of a coalition government arises, the PPP will demand two powerful positions – President of Pakistan for Bilawal Bhutto’s father and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s husband Asif Ali Zardari and the governorship of Punjab province.

After Benazir Bhutto’s assassination in 2007, Zardari had developed close ties with Sharif. This saw the PML-N losing its popularity in Punjab province. The anti-Sharif voters then switched to Imran Khan. But this time around, the PPP has targeted these voters. But, whether it be a PML-N government in power or a coalition government in power, India-Pakistan ties are unlikely to see any thaw.

“Till the Lok Sabha elections are held in India, New Delhi cannot take a risk,” Khalid said. But at the end of it all, it is the Pakistan Army that will call the shots. With Nawaz Sharif being brought back to Pakistan with all earlier charges against him being dropped, the world is seeing the election in Pakistan more as a selection.

“Even if the Army controls the government, the world will see democracy being in practice in Pakistan after the elections are held,” Khalid said.

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