Explained: Hurdles Palestine will face in getting full membership of the UN

Though the Palestinian Authority has renewed its application for full membership in the UN amidst the ongoing war between Israel and the Hamas in Gaza, chances of this fructifying are slim. Will the US again veto Palestine’s full membership in the UN? ETV Bharat speaks to experts.

New Delhi: Though the Palestinian Authority has revived its 2011 application to make Palestine a full member of the UN amidst the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza that has claimed over 30,000 Palestinians lives so far, experts believe that the path to that goal will not be easy.

Certain reports suggest that the US, which traditionally vetoes any move in the UN Security Council (UNSC) to give recognition to full membership of Palestine, might abstain from any such vote this time around. As of now, Palestine is one of the two observer member states in the UN, the other being the Vatican.

Earlier this month, the Palestinian Authority renewed its application for full membership of Palestine in the UN. The application has been pending since 2011 with the US, as one of the five permanent members of the UNSC, vetoing any such move.

Media reports quoted Palestinian envoy to the UN Riyad Mansour as telling reporters in New York that the Palestinian Authority sincerely hoped that after 12 years as an observer state at the UN, the Security Council would “elevate itself to implementing the global consensus on the two-state solution by admitting the state of Palestine for full membership”.

What is the process for a country to be recognised as a full member of the UN?

Any state which desires to become a member of the UN should submit an application to the Secretary-General. Such an application should contain a declaration, made in a formal instrument that the state in question accepts the obligations contained in the UN Charter. The Secretary-General shall, for information, send a copy of the application to the General Assembly, or to the member states of the UN if the General Assembly is not in session.

If the Security Council recommends the applicant state for membership, the General Assembly shall consider whether the applicant is a peace-loving state and is able and willing to carry out the obligations contained in the UN Charter and shall decide, by a two-thirds majority of the members present and voting, upon its application for membership.

If the Security Council does not recommend the applicant state for membership or postpones the consideration of the application, the General Assembly may, after full consideration of the special report of the Security Council, send the application back to the Council, together with a full record of the discussion in the Assembly, for further consideration and recommendation or report.

When did Palestine become an observer member of the UN?

The State of Palestine attained observer status within the UN General Assembly in November 2012. Previously, the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) had formally declared the State of Palestine on November 15, 1988, asserting sovereignty over the internationally recognised Palestinian territories: the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip. By the close of 1988, 78 nations had recognised the Palestinian state.

In an effort to resolve the enduring Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Oslo Accords were signed between Israel and the PLO in 1993 and 1995, establishing the Palestinian Authority (PA) as a self-governing interim administration in the Gaza Strip and approximately 40 percent of the West Bank. However, negotiations between Israel and the PA stalled following the assassination of then Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Benjamin Netanyahu’s rise to power, prompting Palestinians to pursue international recognition of the State of Palestine without Israeli consent.

In 2011, Palestine gained entry into UNESCO. Subsequently, in 2012, it was granted observer status within the UN General Assembly with the support of 138 member states. This milestone prompted the PA to officially adopt the name “State of Palestine” for all purposes.

When did Palestine first apply for full membership of the UN and what happened after that?

In a September 23, 2011, letter to the UN Secretary-General, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas formally submitted the Palestinian application for UN membership. The letter contained a declaration in a formal instrument stating that the “State of Palestine is a peace-loving nation and that it accepts the obligations contained in the Charter of the United Nations and solemnly undertakes to fulfill them”.

After the Secretary-General transmitted the letter to the president of the Security Council and General Assembly in a note, the president of the Council circulated the note to all Council members and called for consultations on September 26, 2011, to discuss how to proceed with the application. On September 28, 2011, the Security Council met in an open formal meeting and referred the matter to the standing Committee on the Admission of New Members.

The Committee held two formal meetings, on September 30 and November 2, 2011, to consider the application. In between the formal meetings, the Committee held five informal meetings, four at expert level and one at permanent representative level. On November 11, 2011, the Committee transmitted its report to the Security Council, which stated that it had concluded its work but was unable to reach a unanimous recommendation on the Palestinian application. It seems that although the majority of members were open to the Council recommending the State of Palestine as a UN member to the General Assembly, there were two members who opposed doing so.

When did Palestine renew its application for full membership of the UN and what happened after that?

On April 2, 2024, the Palestinian Authority sent a letter to the UN Secretary General, for renewed consideration of its 2011 application for full UN membership. The Secretary-General transmitted the request to the Security Council in an April 3 letter.

However, a Security Council committee of the UN has not reached consensus on how to address a recent request from the State of Palestine for full membership in the United Nations. Vanessa Frazier, Malta’s Ambassador to the UN and the current chair of the committee, disclosed after a session in New York Thursday that while two-thirds of the committee members supported the application, five were against it.

Palestinian envoy to the UN Mansour, meanwhile, was quoted as saying that a decision Palestine membership issue is likely to be taken during a UNSC meeting on the Middle East to be held on April 18.

Can Palestine get full membership of the UN?

Algeria, representing Arab nations on the UNSC, is reportedly planning to introduce a resolution this week, reports suggest. However, the resolution is anticipated to face failure, mainly due to the likelihood of a veto from the US, Israel’s staunchest ally within the UNSC.

For the resolution to prevail, it would need backing from at least nine out of the 15 Security Council members, without opposition from any of the five permanent members: China, France, Russia, the UK, and the US.

Should the resolution manage to succeed at the Security Council level, it would then proceed to the UN General Assembly for a vote. Achieving passage would necessitate garnering a two-thirds majority among General Assembly members.

So, will the US again veto the full membership of Palestine in the UN?

According to the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS), though the US is expected to veto any such resolution, US President Joe Biden’s administration has signaled that it might support it.

The JNS cited Michael Doran, senior fellow and director of the Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East at the Hudson Institute think tank, as saying that it all depends on how one interprets the word “support”.

“If ‘support’ means a vote in favour of a UNSC resolution welcoming a Palestinian state into the United Nations, then the chances are slim but not negligible,” Doran was quoted as saying. “If it means abstaining while the other UNSC members vote it in, the chances are much greater.”

However, according to Rajeesh Kumar, Associate Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses and an expert on multilaterism and UN issues, chances of the US abstaining from the vote are unlikely.

“In the last week of March, the US abstained from the vote on UNSC Resolution 2728 calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Israel–Hamas war during the month of Ramadan leading to a lasting sustainable ceasefire,” Kumar explained to ETV Bharat.

The UNSC Resolution received approval from 14 members, while the US abstained from voting.

But Kumar doubted whether the US would again abstain from voting when it comes to the question of full membership of Palestine in the UN.

“This will signal a major shift in Washington’s policy in the Middle East,” he said. “I am doubtful about a US abstention.”

According to R Dayakar, former Indian Ambassador to Iraq and Jordan who also served in the West Asia desk of the Ministry of External Affairs, the Palestine cause has been gaining further traction in recent years in Europe.

“Countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia have already given recognition to Palestine and have established diplomatic relations for decades,” Dayakar told ETV Bharat.

However, he said that such a support to Palestine is unlikely to transform into its full membership at the UN given the strong pro-Israel support among some key members of the UNSC.

“Israel is strongly opposed to UN membership for Palestine and will resist such an eventuality with all its might,” Dayakar said. “Given the strength of Jewish groups in the US, it is reasonable to assume that no US presidential contestant in an election year will support Palestine’s case for full UN membership against strident opposition from Israel. Israel under Netanyahu is opposed to the two-state solution which envisages an independent Palestine state coexisting with Israel with secure borders. A UN resolution approving UN membership for Palestine will strengthen the case for the two-state solution and would put paid to current Israeli policy of rejecting the two-state solution.”

Dayakar further stated that the UN’s failure to accord recognition to Palestine despite the support from more than two-thirds of the UN General Assembly’s members is a reflection of the anachronistic structure and functioning of the UN system and buttresses the need for UN reform.

The Iran factor

Even as the Israel-Hamas war rages on in the Gaza Strip, Israel reportedly bombed Iran’s mission in Syria earlier this month resulting in the death of three top Iranian Republican Guard Corps (IRGC) officials. Iran, so far, has refrained from getting directly involved in the Israel-Hamas war. However, its proxies, the Houthis in Yemen and the Hezbollah in Jordan, have been targeting Israel following the outbreak of the Gaza war in October last year.

Though Netanyahu has denied any responsibility for the attack on the Iranian mission, Iran fired over 300 projectiles, including 170 drones and 120 ballistic missiles targeting Israel. Israel’s Iron Dome defence system and other Western allies intercepted most of these projectiles.

More importantly, though, Israel did not launch a counter-offensive against Iran. This is a sign that Netanyahu has secured elbow space from the US to go ahead with the planned Israeli offensive against the Hamas in Rafah in south Gaza.

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