Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, was sworn in on 19 May 2024. In his inaugural address he mentioned, ‘I hope that China will face the reality of (Taiwan)’s existence, respect the choices of the people of Taiwan, and in good faith, choose dialogue over confrontation.’ The Chinese leadership dislikes Lai as he is against reunification. In his speech, Lai sought peace with China, while promising to never yield to Chinese threats.
China had attempted to influence Taiwan’s elections but failed. Beijing had deployed ships and aircraft, intending to browbeat the Taiwanese to elect the opposition candidate, Hou You-Yi, during elections in Jan this year. Thousands of fake Facebook and X accounts were deleted as they were intended to influence the elections.
The Chinese navy, deployed off the coast of Taiwan, regularly broadcasted on Taiwanese frequencies, ‘The People’s Republic of China is the only legitimate government of China, and Taiwan is an inseparable part of China.’ For the Taiwanese, similar warnings have been a regular occurrence since 1996.
Lai’s swearing-in was a redline, resulting in China conducting its Joint Sword-2024A exercise off the Taiwan coast a few days later. The name indicated that more such exercises can be expected this year. In recent years, China has been conducting military exercises off the Taiwanese coast, as a sign of displeasure.
The Chinese government mouthpiece, The Global Times, stated in an op-ed that the exercise, ‘shocked Taiwan independence secessionist forces.’ It added, ‘The goal of the exercise is to clearly warn the Lai authorities that seeking independence is a dead end.’ A total of 111 aircraft and 46 surface vessels of both the PLA navy as also its Coast Guard were deployed. The reality was however vastly different.
While Taiwan alerted its armed forces as a precaution, the US and Japan appeared to only monitor Chinese activity without too much concern. It was evidently a display of force, nothing more. This flowed from the nature of deployment and type of vessels employed. China was expected to react to Lai’s assumption of Presidentship amidst the presence of US representatives. The US was also aware that the PLA is still unprepared for any major operation and the exercise was more aimed at convincing its domestic audience that it retains power over Taiwan.
Taipei Monitoring China's Military Activity
Taipei was not taking chances, aware that China could attempt a misadventure in the garb of exercises as it had done in Ladakh in 2020. For Taiwan, the threat was not the mainland but outlying islands. Taiwan has been observing all Chinese military activities to monitor Beijing’s intent.
As per the Chinese government, the exercises focused on ‘joint sea-air combat-readiness patrols, seizing battlefield control and joint precision strikes.’ It also claimed to have exercised the ‘blockade of Taiwan.’ This is the third time, in recent years, China has conducted such large-scale exercises. As per reports, current exercises were closer to Taiwan than their earlier versions. There would be different indicators whenever China means business.
The US, as per protocol, displayed concern over their activities. Its state department released a statement mentioning, ‘Using a normal, routine, and democratic transition as an excuse for military provocations risks escalation and erodes longstanding norms that for decades have maintained peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits.’ There was no enhanced readiness on US bases in near vicinity.
US Indo-Pacific Commander, Admiral Samuel Paparo, in an interview to a media outlet, mentioned that the exercises ‘looked like a rehearsal.’ He added, ‘We watched it. We took note. We learned from it, and they helped us prepare for the future.’ Every exercise of the adversary provides lessons for the defender.
Post the meeting last week between US Secretary of State, Lloyd Austin, and his Chinese counterpart, Admiral Dong Jun, on the sidelines of the Shangri-la dialogue in Singapore, the US released a statement mentioning, ‘The secretary expressed concern about recent provocative PLA activity around the Taiwan Strait, and he reiterated that China should not use Taiwan's political transition - part of a normal, routine democratic process - as a pretext for coercive measures.’ The Chinese, on their part reiterated that Taiwan is their internal matter.
The Chinese defence minister stated in the Shangri-la dialogue that ‘anyone who dares to split Taiwan from China is bound to be smashed to pieces and bring about their own ruin.’ He reiterated that ‘China's handling of the Taiwan question in accordance with the law is entirely a matter of China’s internal affairs, which brooks no foreign interference.’ For China, Taiwan is a subject which is sensitive.
On his part, Lloyd Austin, hinting at China’s actions in the Taiwan straits, mentioned, ‘the peaceful resolution of disputes (should be) through dialogue – not coercion or conflict. And certainly not through so-called punishment.’
US Senator and Foreign Affairs Committee Chair, Michael McCaul, who was in Taipei for the swearing-in, stated that US promised military aid would soon be arriving on the island, strengthening Taiwanese defences. This, as expected, was criticized by Beijing as interference in its internal matters, not that it mattered to anyone.