New Delhi: With Sri Lanka set to go for the presidential election on September 21, India will be watching with keen interest the emerging political scenario in the southern neighbour. This will be the first presidential election in the Indian Ocean island nation after it went through a financial crisis in 2022.
The presidential election in Sri Lanka comes at a time when India's immediate neighbour going through a state of turmoil. In Bangladesh, the ouster of Sheikh Hasina as Prime Minister caught India off guard. The Maldives elected a new President who is seen as pro-China and anti-India. In Nepal, a new coalition government comprising the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) has come to power. Given all these, New Delhi would not like to take any chance if there is a change of leadership in Sri Lanka.
The India-Sri Lanka relationship has traditionally been marked by bonhomie and a legacy of cultural, religious and linguistic interaction. Trade and investment have grown and there is cooperation in the fields of development, education, culture and defence.
Sri Lanka is one of India's major development partners and this partnership has been an important pillar of bilateral ties between the two countries over the years. With grants alone amounting to around $570 million, the overall commitment by the Government of India is to the tune of more than $3.5 billion. Demand-driven and people-centric nature of India's development partnership with Sri Lanka has been the cornerstone of this relationship. Grant projects cut across sectors such as education, health, livelihood, housing, and industrial development.
When Sri Lanka was faced with an unprecedented economic crisis in 2022, India provided around $4 billion worth of aid. India also played a crucial role in collaborating with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and creditors to help Sri Lanka restructure its debt.
Located close to India’s southern coast, Sri Lanka is of huge geostrategic importance for India. India has been expressing concerns about China’s growing economic and strategic influence on Sri Lanka, including Chinese investments in infrastructure projects and the development of the Hambantota Port. India has been trying to keep China away from a region New Delhi sees as to be under its sphere of influence. It is in light of this that the upcoming presidential election is of immense significance for India.
Anand Kumar, Associate Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses and an expert on South Asia, pointed out that, in recent times, there has been considerable movement in India-Sri Lanka bilateral relations.
"India will be happy if the new president is friendly with India and bilateral ties continue to grow," Kumar told ETV Bharat. "India would like closer economic relations with Sri Lanka so that the economy in that country grows. This can help reduce the uncertainty in the neighbourhood to a certain extent."
Kumar said that a friendly Sri Lankan president will ensure security in the Indian Ocean region."Anybody who is not well disposed towards India might give space to some external power that may be inimical to New Delhi’s interests," he said.
It is in the context of this that one needs to see what the candidates' disposition towards India might be like. Though there are in all 39 candidates in the fray, four of them are seen as the major candidates.
Though he is a leader of the United National Party (UNP), incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe is running as an independent candidate this time. He had earlier served as Prime Minister in a coalition under then-President Maithripala Sirisena from 2015 to 2019.
In May 2022, Wickremesinghe was reappointed as Prime Minister amidst the economic crisis mentioned above. Following the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in July 2022, Wickremesinghe became acting president and was subsequently elected as the ninth President of Sri Lanka by Parliament on July 20, 2022.
Having undertaken the task of rebuilding with the support of the IMF bailout, Wickremesinghe has managed to revive the economy turning it positive from negative growth in 2022. However, his hard economic reforms to complement the IMF facility have made him unpopular. Wickremesinghe has been traditionally been seen as friendly towards India.
Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) is the current leader of the country's parliament. He is the son of former Sri Lankan President Ranasinghe Premadasa. While the SJB traces its political views to the liberal-conservative principles of the UNP from which it has carved itself out, some sections of the Sri Lankan media have argued that the party has gradually moved to the progressive and democratic political centre over time, and even espouses several centre-left ideals. Premadasa has supported India's bid for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council. Reports cited him as saying that he wants to have a strong relationship with India across multiple sectors so that both countries can grow together.
However, if popular perception is to go by, the dark horse this time is Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National People’s Power (NPP) alliance. The NPP alliance is ideologically left-wing populist and working-class-centred. The NPP is led by the Dissanayake's JVP. The predominant goal of the NPP is the nationalisation of Sri Lanka's resources and making the country a developed nation through research and development in potential industry sectors while eradicating practices causing corruption under earlier governments. Dissnayake has gone on record praising India's role in helping Sri Lanka overcome its economic crisis. Earlier this year, he had visited India and had met top Indian officials and leaders.
The fourth major candidate is Namal Rajapaksa of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). He is the son of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa and nephew of another former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. At 38, he is the youngest candidate in the fray. Though he is contesting the election, his top priority as of now is rejuvenating his party after being appointed as its national organiser earlier this year.
"India is willing to engage with anyone whom the Sri Lankan system throws up as president," Kumar said. "At the end of the day, our objective is to have a friendly relationship with Sri Lanka and keep the security environment safe in the region."
