New Delhi:As the most influential US presidential election heads into its final days, with both Republican former President Donald Trump and Vice-President Kamala Harris making their final pitches in battleground states, the question is why and how the next US president will influence ties with India.
In an exclusive Interview with ETV Bharat, India’s ex-high commissioner to Canada and foreign affairs expert, Vishnu Prakash said, “There is a consensus across the political spectrum in both the countries to deepen and broaden bilateral engagement. This momentum is likely to be sustained under the new US administration regardless of its political orientation."
When asked why the US elections matter to India and how the next US President will influence ties with India, Prakash said, “The US is easily the most influential and powerful country in the world with the largest economy and strongest military. It is a technological giant and a hub of educational excellence. It has a significant impact on global security, stability and prosperity. It is therefore natural for India and other nations to keep abreast of developments in the United States. The personality and disposition of the American President can have a considerable bearing on geopolitical and geoeconomic dynamics. The economic ties should continue to grow stronger. Under the Trump Presidency, there could be more emphasis on balancing the trade, which is currently in India's favour and a reduction of Indian tariffs on American products. The US under either administration is likely to continue its 3C approach--Competition, Cooperation and Confrontation--with China”.
While, Kamala Harris, the Vice-President of the United States, has a unique connection to India through her heritage; her mother was from India, which gives her a personal link to the country. As the Vice-President, she has played a significant role in US-India relations, emphasising the importance of the partnership between the two nations. Former President Donald Trump, on the other hand, has openly expressed his commitment to enhancing this vital partnership with his esteemed ally, PM Modi, in a strategic attempt to deepen relations with India.
Throughout various events, former President Trump has consistently lauded his ‘good friend’ PM Modi. While he has raised concerns about trade practices without delving into specifics, Trump has referred to Prime Minister Modi as a “fantastic man.” Additionally, Trump has pledged to stand up for Hindu Americans, countering what he describes as the anti-religion agenda of the radical left.
Meanwhile, former Indian ambassador to the US, Meera Shankar told ETV Bharat that the broad strategic direction of India -US ties is unlikely to be impacted by the outcome of the US Presidential election as both candidates favour strong relations with India. However, there could be greater trade friction under a Trump administration and, perhaps, a greater emphasis on human rights under a Harris one.
“As the world’s largest economy and strongest military power, what the US does, for good or ill, impacts not just the US but the whole world. The US is our largest trading partner in goods and services. Protectionist policies there could impact our exports”, she added.
It is pertinent to note that as the significance of strong India-US collaboration continues to expand, the Indian leadership expresses a firm belief that the upcoming Presidential election will not affect the enduring partnership between New Delhi and Washington. Minister for External Affairs S Jaishankar, recently remarked, “We are confident that we will successfully engage with whoever becomes the President of the United States.”
As the election is happening at a time when the world is facing geopolitical challenges arising out of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, all eyes will be now on India’s consistent position on the conflict, which will be crucial as that will determine India’s ability to balance its relationship with both the United States and Russia, which is poised to be significantly influenced by the occupant of the White House.
If Kamala Harris assumes the presidency, it is likely that New Delhi will face pressure to utilise its historically close ties with Moscow to encourage diplomatic efforts aimed at bringing an end to ongoing conflicts. This could include a re-evaluation of its defence and economic engagements with Russia, emphasising a shift toward greater alignment with the US's interests in the region.
On the other hand, if a second Trump administration were to emerge, the approach to India-Russia relations might shift dramatically. In this scenario, India could find itself navigating a landscape where its ties with Russia are not scrutinised as intensely, potentially leading to an expansion of collaboration in various sectors, including defence and energy. Such a change could foster a more robust partnership between India and Russia, reflecting mutual interests and shared goals amidst a complex geopolitical backdrop.
Besides a strong strategic partnership, India and the United States share a robust and growing trade relationship, marked by significant economic collaboration across various sectors. Bilateral trade in goods and services has increased substantially over the years. As of recent data, trade between the two nations is valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars annually. Major exports include textiles, pharmaceuticals, jewellery and engineering goods. The U.exports machinery, aircraft, electronics and agricultural products to India.
Both countries have made significant investments in each other's markets. The US is one of the largest investors in India, particularly in sectors like technology, telecommunications and financial services. Conversely, Indian companies have made substantial investments in the US, particularly in technology and manufacturing. The economic relationship is underpinned by a broader strategic partnership that includes cooperation in defence, energy and technology.
Initiatives like the US-India Trade Policy Forum aim to address trade barriers and enhance collaboration. Despite the positive trajectory, there are challenges, including trade imbalances, tariffs and regulatory hurdles. Intellectual property rights and market access for agricultural products have also been points of contention.
The two nations have been working on agreements to enhance cooperation in emerging sectors like digital trade, renewable energy and supply chain resilience, especially considering global disruptions caused by events like the COVID-19 pandemic. The US-India trade relationship is dynamic and continues to evolve, reflecting broader geopolitical shifts and economic interdependencies.
As of 2024, the trade relationship between India and the US continues to strengthen, with both countries actively engaging to enhance economic ties. Bilateral trade in goods and services is expected to exceed $200 billion. This includes a significant increase in both exports and imports compared to previous years. Key exports to the US include textiles, pharmaceuticals, information technology services, and engineering goods. The US exports machinery, chemicals, aircraft, and agricultural products to India, with technology and energy sectors also seeing growth. The US foreign direct investment (FDI) in India remains strong, particularly in technology, renewable energy and healthcare. Conversely, Indian investments in the US continue to grow, especially in tech and manufacturing.
It is worth noting that there are over four million people of Indian origin living in the US, making them one of the largest Asian American groups. The Indian American community is diverse, encompassing a wide range of languages, religions, and cultural practices. This includes Hindus, Sikhs, Christians, Muslims and others. Indian Americans are often highly educated, with a significant proportion holding advanced degrees. Many work in fields such as technology, healthcare, engineering and academia. They have made substantial contributions to the tech industry, particularly in Silicon Valley.
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