Washington:Even with the outcome uncertain Tuesday night, the 2024 presidential election already has exposed the depths of a fractured nation as the candidates navigated political shifts based on class, race and age under the near-constant threat of misinformation and violence.
Early data suggests that Republican Donald Trump may benefit from some of the shifts more than Democrat Kamala Harris. But not since the 1968 election, when the nation was torn over racial strife and the Vietnam war, have the divisions seemed so apparent. The biggest conclusions, however, so far may be the most obvious.
The United States is poised to elect either its first female president in Harris or its first president with a felony conviction in former president Trump, whose enduring political strength through chaos — much of it his own making — has carried few political costs so far. With votes still being counted across the country, here are some early takeaways:
There is a new battleground map and scrambled coalitions
Black voters — men and women — have been the bedrock of the Democratic Party, and Democrats have had a strong pull for Latino voters. It's been the same with young voters. But preliminary data from AP VoteCast, an expansive survey of more than 115,000 voters nationwide, suggested that the groups shifted in Trump's direction.
Voters under age 30 represent a fraction of the total electorate, but about half of them supported Harris. That’s compared to the roughly 6 in 10 who backed Biden in 2020. Slightly more than 4 in 10 young voters went for Trump, up from about one-third in 2020.
Another shift that emerged was among Black and Latino voters, who appeared slightly less likely to support Harris than they were to back Biden four years ago, according to AP VoteCast.
About 8 in 10 Black voters backed Harris, down from the roughly 9 in 10 who backed Biden. More than half of Hispanic voters supported Harris, but that was down slightly from the roughly 6 in 10 who backed Biden in 2020. Trump’s support among those groups appeared to rise slightly compared to 2020. Trump boasted throughout the fall that he would get more support from Black men and Latino men than he had before.
Harris, meanwhile, went after more educated voters — including moderate Republicans — repelled by Trump. It may turn out that the Trump era is not a permanent realignment of the major party coalitions. But it’s clear that old coalitions and longstanding understandings of how to win the White House simply do not apply with Trump in the mix.
A new president will take charge of a nation with deep fissures
Whether Harris or Trump ends up behind the Resolute Desk, the 47th president will lead a nation with deepening political and cultural fissures and a worried electorate.
AP VoteCast found that about 4 in 10 voters considered the economy and jobs the most important problem facing the country. Roughly 2 in 10 voters said the top issue is immigration, an anchor of Trump’s argument, and about 1 in 10 picked abortion, a pillar of Harris’ campaign.
In a reminder of just how unusual this election has been, about 1 in 4 Trump voters said the assassination attempts against him were the most important factor in their vote.
But when asked what most influenced their vote, about half of voters cited the future of democracy. That was higher than the share who answered the same way about inflation, immigration or abortion policy. And it crosses over the two major parties: About two-thirds of Harris voters and about a third of Trump voters said the future of democracy was the most important factor in their votes. That’s not surprising given the realities of the Trump era and the rhetoric of the campaign.
Trump refused to acknowledge his 2020 defeat and watched his supporters ransack the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, as Congress convened to certify Democrat Joe Biden’s victory. Trump even mused two days before Election Day that he “shouldn’t have left” the White House after repeatedly promising retribution to his political enemies.
Harris, by the end of the campaign, joined other critics — including some of Trump’s former White House chief of staff — in describing the former president as a “fascist.” Trump, meanwhile, labeled Harris a “fascist” and a “communist.”