New Delhi: In yet what can be seen as a signal to a thaw in the ties between India and the Maldives, President of the Indian Ocean archipelago nation Mohamed Muizzu has been reportedly invited to attend the swearing-in ceremony of Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister for the third time scheduled for this weekend.
This comes after Muizzu sent a congratulatory message to Modi's BJP and the NDA alliance came to a position of attaining power after this year's Lok Sabha elections, the results of which were declared June 4.
"Congratulations to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the BJP and BJP-led NDA, on the success in the 2024 Indian General Election, for the third consecutive term. I look forward to working together to advance our shared interests in pursuit of shared prosperity and stability for our two countries," Muizzu said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.
In response, Modi said: "Thank you President Mohammed Muizzu. Maldives is our valued partner and neighbour in the Indian Ocean Region. I too look forward to closer cooperation for further strengthening our bilateral ties."
Though there has been no official confirmation from India or the Maldives about the invitation being extended to the Maldives President, if he comes, it will be Muizzu's first visit to India after he assumed office in November last year. The invitations to foreign leaders to attend the swearing-in ceremony are expected to be officially extended Thursday, reports suggest.
Muizzu will be among a handful of leaders from India's neighbours who will attend Modi's swearing-in ceremony. Others who have been invited for the ceremony are Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Sri Lanka President Ranil Wickremesinghe, Nepal Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Bhutan Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay, and Mauritius Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth.
Sri Lanka President Wickremesinghe had agreed to attend the ceremony when Modi invited him during a congratulatory call the former made following the election results declared June 4. Mauritius Prime Minister Jugnauth was the first foreign leader to congratulate Modi after the results were declared.
Meanwhile, Nepal Prime Minister Dahal's office has confirmed to the Kathmandu Post that he, along with Foreign Minister Narayan Kaji Shrestha, will attend the ceremony. Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina too had confirmed her visit during a telephonic call with Modi. This will be her first visit to India after returning to power for the fourth time following the parliamentary elections held in her country in January this year.
This is not the first time that foreign leaders have been invited for the swearing-in ceremony of Modi as the Prime Minister. In 2014 when he first came to power, leaders of the member states of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) were invited. In 2019, when he returned to power, leaders of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) nations were invited.
However, what is of interest is the invitation being extended to Maldives President Muizzu as reports suggest citing sources. Ties between India and the Maldives had gone south since Muizzu became President.
Muizzu had won last year's presidential election on a pronounced anti-India plank. He ran an 'India Out' campaign in which he called for the withdrawal of some Indian military personnel present in his country. These personnel, numbering less than 100, were primarily involved in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief work in the Indian Ocean archipelago nation. However, after assuming office, Muizzu made a formal request to India to withdraw these personnel. These personnel have now been replaced by civilians from India.
In December last year, the Maldives decided not to renew a hydrography agreement with India citing national security concerns and the safeguarding of sensitive information. The hydrographic survey agreement was signed on June 8, 2019, during Modi's visit to the Maldives. Under the agreement, India was allowed to conduct a comprehensive study of the island nation's territorial waters, which includes reefs, lagoons, coastlines, ocean currents and tide levels.
And then again, in January this year, the Maldives decided to allow a Chinese vessel to enter its territorial waters ostensibly to do research work. This decision came despite pressure from the Indian government and concerns raised by various quarters about the vessel being a "spy vessel". India has strongly been protesting the repeated visits by Chinese vessels to the waters of the south Indian Ocean, a region New Delhi considers to be under its sphere of influence.
Also, in early January this year, a political row broke out between India and the Maldives after Prime Minister Modi visited the union territory of Lakshadweep in the Arabian Sea and promoted it on social media as an exciting tourism destination. Though Modi did not mention any other country in his comments, some Maldivian politicians took it as the Lakshadweep islands being showcased as a rival to the tourism industry in the Indian Ocean archipelago nation. They made disparaging remarks against the Prime Minister and racist comments against Indians in general.
This sparked a social media backlash from Indians, including entertainment world celebrities and sports stars. Many opposition leaders and tourism industry bodies in the Maldives also criticised the Muizzu government for this. Following this, three junior ministers in the Maldives government were suspended.
Soon after the row, Muizzu went on a nearly week-long visit to China. This is a break from the practice followed by his three immediate democratically elected predecessors - Ibrahim Solih, Abdulla Yameen and Mohamed Nasheed - who had made India the destination of their first state visit after assuming office. In fact, after assuming office in November last year, Muizzu made Turkey the destination of his first state visit.
Muizzu further upped the ante against New Delhi by targeting the health sector. Till now, hospitals empanelled under Aasandha, the Maldives' universal health insurance scheme, for overseas treatment of Maldivian patients were restricted to just India and Sri Lanka, the majority of them in India. The largest amount of money disbursed by Aasandha to foreign hospitals went to Indian hospitals. Over Rs 7.5 billion has been disbursed to hospitals in India over the past 10 years.
Now, following directives issued by Muizzu, the state-owned Aasandha Company, which acts as a third-party claims administrator, has started work to expand the scope of overseas treatment for Maldivians beyond India and Sri Lanka. The company is now in talks with Thailand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Both countries are leading medical care providers but at a relatively higher cost.
As part of New Delhi's Neighbourhood First Policy, the Maldives is strategically significant to India because of its location in the Indian Ocean. India and the Maldives share ethnic, linguistic, cultural, religious and commercial links steeped in antiquity and enjoy close, cordial and multi-dimensional relations. However, regime instability in the Maldives since 2008 has posed significant challenges to the India-Maldives relationship, particularly in the political and strategic spheres.
Although India continues to be an important partner of the Maldives, New Delhi cannot afford to be complacent over its position and must remain attentive to the developments in the Maldives. India must play a key role within the Indo-Pacific security space to ensure regional security in South Asia and surrounding maritime boundaries.
China’s strategic footprint in India’s neighbourhood has increased. The Maldives has emerged as an important 'pearl' in China's 'String of Pearls' construct in South Asia.
However, in March this year, in what can be viewed as a sudden turnaround from his pronounced foreign policy steps against India, Muizzu said that India will continue to be the closest ally of his country and expressed the hope that New Delhi will provide debt repayment relief to the Indian Ocean archipelago nation.
In an interview with a news outlet, Muizzu also claimed that he had never taken any action or made any statement that would affect ties between the Maldives and India. "It is not nice to dismiss or disregard aid from one country to another as useless," the Edition.mv news website quoted Muizzu as telling Dhivehi news outlet Mihaaru.
He also expressed the hope that India will accommodate debt relief measures in the repayment of the hefty loans that his country's consecutive governments have taken over the years. India acceded to this request.
Last month, the State Bank of India subscribed for one more year the $50 million Government Treasury Bill, issued by Ministry of Finance of the Maldives, upon maturity of the previous subscription. These Government Treasury Bills are subscribed by SBI under a unique Government-to-Government arrangement at zero-cost (interest free) to the Government of Maldives. The continuation of the subscription has been made at the special request of the Government of Maldives to secure budgetary support from the Government of India.
The SBI move came days after Maldives Foreign Minister Moosa Zameer visited India in May this year. During the course of his visit, Zameer said that Muizzu's decision to visit China before India was more out of convenience than any geopolitical shift. As for speculations about military pacts with China, he said that the Maldives has no intention of hosting foreign militaries on its soil.
This is why, Muizzu’s visit to India for Modi’s swearing-in ceremony, if it comes through, will be of special interest for observers.
