Kamala Harris as US presidential candidate? That’s where Democrats’ chances lie, says top historian

With a top American historian, renowned for correctly predicting the results of American presidential elections, saying that incumbent President Joe Biden might well endorse his Vice-President Kamala Harris to run for the presidency as the Democratic candidate, the debate rages about the chances. An expert speaks to ETV Bharat.

New Delhi: As the debate among US Democrats over Joe Biden's potential second term as President continues, an American historian renowned for accurately predicting the US presidential elections has suggested that Vice-President Kamala Harris, who is of Indian descent, might enhance the Democratic Party's prospects of retaining the House.

“While Joe Biden represents the best chance to win, if Democrats push him out, he must institute Plan B, by resigning the presidency, letting Kamala Harris become President and the consensus nominee, conditions under which, historically the White House party wins,” Allan Lichtman posted on X (formerly Twitter) late Thursday evening IST.

Lichtman’s view comes amidst Biden trying to continue his campaign as the Democrat candidate even as his Republican rival and former President Donald Trump is making a strong comeback as opinion polls show after an assassination attempt in Pennsylvania last Saturday.

Biden has been coming under increasing pressure from Democrats to withdraw his candidacy because of his advanced age (he is 81) and his dismal show in a US TV debate against Trump. Doctors have also said that Biden has again been afflicted with COVID-19 forcing him off the campaign trail. This is why Lichtman’s statement assumes significance.

American historian Allan Lichtman has developed a model based on which he makes his predictions about the results of presidential elections. He is best known for the “Keys” system, presented in his books The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency and The Keys to the White House. The system uses 13 historical factors to predict whether the popular vote in the election for the President of the US will be won by the candidate of the party holding the presidency (regardless of whether the President is the candidate).

According to Robinder Sachdev, president of the independent think tank ImagIndia, if Biden steps down as the Democratic candidate for the presidency and endorses Harris’s candidacy, three major factors will work in her favour.

“It will signal a smooth transition within the Democratic Party,” Sachdev, a former student of Lichtman at American University, told ETV Bharat.

Sachdev said that Biden has $220 million funds for campaigning. If Biden endorses Harris, then she can use the Super PACs, which are independent expenditure-only political committees that may receive unlimited contributions from individuals, corporations, labour unions and other political action committees to finance independent expenditures and other independent political activity, for her campaign strategy. However, if she is not endorsed and other Democrats challenge Biden, then the funds will go for the Democratic Party to be used for other campaigning purposes if a new presidential candidate and a running mate are endorsed.

Sachdev said that another factor that will go in favour of Harris if endorsed by Biden is that she will be seen as a person, who promotes reproductive rights among women, a huge issue ahead of the elections scheduled for November this year.

“If Harris stands as the Democratic candidate for the presidency, then she stands to win a large number of African-American women votes,” he said. While Harris’s mother is Indian, her father is Jamaican.